Value Bets — Tracked Accuracy
Hit rate and ROI for recommended picks only — Strategy v2: home/away outright wins and selected unders (under_25, under_35), edge +5 to +15pp over de-vigged consensus, odd 1.30–5.00. All numbers at 1 unit flat stake.
249
Settled picks
42.6%
Hit rate
-8.0%
ROI · 1u flat
-19.83u
P&L
2.52
Avg odd
198
Pending
By value tier
| Tier | N | W / L | Hit % | ROI % | P&L (u) | Avg odd | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong (positive) | 248 | 106 / 142 | 42.7% | -7.6% | -18.83 | 2.52 | 9.4% |
| Moderate (neutral) | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -1.00 | 1.73 | 14.8% |
By market
| Market | N | W / L | Hit % | ROI % | P&L (u) | Avg odd | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
away |
86 | 29 / 57 | 33.7% | 11.4% | 9.78 | 3.44 | 9.3% |
under_35 |
65 | 42 / 23 | 64.6% | -7.1% | -4.61 | 1.45 | 9.7% |
under_25 |
50 | 19 / 31 | 38.0% | -30.7% | -15.36 | 1.98 | 9.0% |
home |
45 | 14 / 31 | 31.1% | -20.6% | -9.27 | 2.97 | 9.7% |
over_15 |
2 | 2 / 0 | 100.0% | 32.0% | 0.64 | 1.32 | 8.3% |
btts_yes |
1 | 0 / 1 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -1.00 | 1.73 | 14.8% |
Methodology: each pick is graded at 1 unit flat stake. ROI = P&L / N. Tier labels come from the seed-sample backtest in value_finder.TIER; once enough live picks accumulate the tier table will become the source of truth.