Value Bets — Tracked Accuracy
Hit rate and ROI for every market the value-finder analyzed — includes goal/BTTS markets that v2 excludes from picks. Wider sample, weaker signal. All numbers at 1 unit flat stake.
3406
Settled picks
45.8%
Hit rate
-2.0%
ROI · 1u flat
-68.77u
P&L
2.61
Avg odd
2466
Pending
By value tier
| Tier | N | W / L | Hit % | ROI % | P&L (u) | Avg odd | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong (positive) | 1220 | 560 / 660 | 45.9% | 0.0% | -0.51 | 2.61 | 0.4% |
| Moderate (neutral) | 309 | 132 / 177 | 42.7% | -13.3% | -40.97 | 2.12 | -1.4% |
| Marginal (negative) | 1877 | 867 / 1010 | 46.2% | -1.5% | -27.28 | 2.69 | 0.3% |
By market
| Market | N | W / L | Hit % | ROI % | P&L (u) | Avg odd | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
over_15 |
344 | 269 / 75 | 78.2% | 0.7% | 2.35 | 1.30 | 0.7% |
btts_yes |
319 | 178 / 141 | 55.8% | -0.5% | -1.73 | 1.82 | 1.7% |
over_25 |
316 | 171 / 145 | 54.1% | -0.3% | -0.87 | 1.91 | 0.5% |
home |
312 | 133 / 179 | 42.6% | -1.5% | -4.54 | 2.68 | -4.2% |
under_35 |
303 | 206 / 97 | 68.0% | 16.8% | 51.02 | 1.65 | 2.1% |
over_35 |
303 | 97 / 206 | 32.0% | -3.1% | -9.42 | 3.25 | -2.0% |
away |
303 | 85 / 218 | 28.1% | -11.3% | -34.36 | 3.92 | 4.1% |
under_25 |
302 | 137 / 165 | 45.4% | -2.5% | -7.63 | 2.21 | -0.2% |
draw |
302 | 91 / 211 | 30.1% | 12.4% | 37.52 | 3.89 | 0.5% |
btts_no |
301 | 131 / 170 | 43.5% | -12.1% | -36.33 | 2.10 | -1.4% |
under_15 |
301 | 61 / 240 | 20.3% | -21.5% | -64.77 | 4.28 | 0.1% |
Methodology: each pick is graded at 1 unit flat stake. ROI = P&L / N. Tier labels come from the seed-sample backtest in value_finder.TIER; once enough live picks accumulate the tier table will become the source of truth.