Value Bets — Tracked Accuracy
Hit rate and ROI for recommended picks only — Strategy v2: home/away outright wins and selected unders (under_25, under_35), edge +5 to +15pp over de-vigged consensus, odd 1.30–5.00. All numbers at 1 unit flat stake.
265
Settled picks
43.4%
Hit rate
-3.2%
ROI · 1u flat
-8.55u
P&L
2.54
Avg odd
197
Pending
By value tier
| Tier | N | W / L | Hit % | ROI % | P&L (u) | Avg odd | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong (positive) | 264 | 115 / 149 | 43.6% | -2.9% | -7.55 | 2.55 | 9.2% |
| Moderate (neutral) | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -1.00 | 1.73 | 14.8% |
By market
| Market | N | W / L | Hit % | ROI % | P&L (u) | Avg odd | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
away |
89 | 29 / 60 | 32.6% | 7.6% | 6.78 | 3.40 | 9.2% |
under_35 |
66 | 43 / 23 | 65.2% | -6.5% | -4.28 | 1.45 | 9.6% |
home |
56 | 21 / 35 | 37.5% | 5.8% | 3.28 | 3.02 | 9.1% |
under_25 |
51 | 20 / 31 | 39.2% | -27.4% | -13.96 | 1.99 | 9.0% |
over_15 |
2 | 2 / 0 | 100.0% | 32.0% | 0.64 | 1.32 | 8.3% |
btts_yes |
1 | 0 / 1 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -1.00 | 1.73 | 14.8% |
Methodology: each pick is graded at 1 unit flat stake. ROI = P&L / N. Tier labels come from the seed-sample backtest in value_finder.TIER; once enough live picks accumulate the tier table will become the source of truth.