Value Bets — Tracked Accuracy
Hit rate and ROI for every market the value-finder analyzed — includes goal/BTTS markets that v2 excludes from picks. Wider sample, weaker signal. All numbers at 1 unit flat stake.
3311
Settled picks
45.5%
Hit rate
-2.0%
ROI · 1u flat
-66.84u
P&L
2.64
Avg odd
2466
Pending
By value tier
| Tier | N | W / L | Hit % | ROI % | P&L (u) | Avg odd | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong (positive) | 1204 | 550 / 654 | 45.7% | -1.1% | -13.01 | 2.61 | 0.3% |
| Moderate (neutral) | 309 | 132 / 177 | 42.7% | -13.3% | -40.97 | 2.12 | -1.4% |
| Marginal (negative) | 1798 | 823 / 975 | 45.8% | -0.7% | -12.85 | 2.74 | 0.0% |
By market
| Market | N | W / L | Hit % | ROI % | P&L (u) | Avg odd | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
btts_no |
301 | 131 / 170 | 43.5% | -12.1% | -36.33 | 2.10 | -1.4% |
btts_yes |
301 | 170 / 131 | 56.5% | 0.8% | 2.44 | 1.82 | 1.4% |
under_35 |
301 | 204 / 97 | 67.8% | 16.8% | 50.47 | 1.65 | 2.0% |
over_35 |
301 | 97 / 204 | 32.2% | -2.5% | -7.42 | 3.25 | -2.0% |
under_25 |
301 | 136 / 165 | 45.2% | -3.0% | -9.03 | 2.21 | -0.2% |
over_25 |
301 | 165 / 136 | 54.8% | 1.1% | 3.43 | 1.91 | 0.2% |
under_15 |
301 | 61 / 240 | 20.3% | -21.5% | -64.77 | 4.28 | 0.1% |
over_15 |
301 | 240 / 61 | 79.7% | 2.8% | 8.36 | 1.30 | -0.1% |
away |
301 | 85 / 216 | 28.2% | -10.8% | -32.36 | 3.93 | 4.1% |
draw |
301 | 90 / 211 | 29.9% | 11.8% | 35.47 | 3.89 | 0.5% |
home |
301 | 126 / 175 | 41.9% | -5.7% | -17.09 | 2.66 | -4.6% |
Methodology: each pick is graded at 1 unit flat stake. ROI = P&L / N. Tier labels come from the seed-sample backtest in value_finder.TIER; once enough live picks accumulate the tier table will become the source of truth.