Value Bets — Tracked Accuracy
Hit rate and ROI for every market the value-finder analyzed — includes goal/BTTS markets that v2 excludes from picks. Wider sample, weaker signal. All numbers at 1 unit flat stake.
3223
Settled picks
45.5%
Hit rate
-1.9%
ROI · 1u flat
-61.44u
P&L
2.64
Avg odd
2466
Pending
By value tier
| Tier | N | W / L | Hit % | ROI % | P&L (u) | Avg odd | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong (positive) | 1172 | 532 / 640 | 45.4% | -1.3% | -15.58 | 2.62 | 0.3% |
| Moderate (neutral) | 293 | 125 / 168 | 42.7% | -13.7% | -40.26 | 2.11 | -1.3% |
| Marginal (negative) | 1758 | 808 / 950 | 46.0% | -0.3% | -5.59 | 2.74 | 0.0% |
By market
| Market | N | W / L | Hit % | ROI % | P&L (u) | Avg odd | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
btts_no |
293 | 125 / 168 | 42.7% | -13.7% | -40.26 | 2.11 | -1.3% |
btts_yes |
293 | 168 / 125 | 57.3% | 2.3% | 6.66 | 1.82 | 1.3% |
under_35 |
293 | 198 / 95 | 67.6% | 17.3% | 50.61 | 1.66 | 1.9% |
over_35 |
293 | 95 / 198 | 32.4% | -2.2% | -6.35 | 3.24 | -1.9% |
under_25 |
293 | 131 / 162 | 44.7% | -3.4% | -10.09 | 2.22 | -0.3% |
over_25 |
293 | 162 / 131 | 55.3% | 1.8% | 5.40 | 1.90 | 0.3% |
under_15 |
293 | 59 / 234 | 20.1% | -21.6% | -63.17 | 4.30 | 0.0% |
over_15 |
293 | 234 / 59 | 79.9% | 2.9% | 8.40 | 1.30 | 0.0% |
away |
293 | 80 / 213 | 27.3% | -13.8% | -40.41 | 3.95 | 4.0% |
draw |
293 | 90 / 203 | 30.7% | 14.8% | 43.47 | 3.90 | 0.5% |
home |
293 | 123 / 170 | 42.0% | -5.4% | -15.69 | 2.66 | -4.6% |
Methodology: each pick is graded at 1 unit flat stake. ROI = P&L / N. Tier labels come from the seed-sample backtest in value_finder.TIER; once enough live picks accumulate the tier table will become the source of truth.