Value Bets — Tracked Accuracy
Hit rate and ROI for recommended picks only — Strategy v2: home/away outright wins and selected unders (under_25, under_35), edge +5 to +15pp over de-vigged consensus, odd 1.30–5.00. All numbers at 1 unit flat stake.
239
Settled picks
41.4%
Hit rate
-9.3%
ROI · 1u flat
-22.13u
P&L
2.54
Avg odd
197
Pending
By value tier
| Tier | N | W / L | Hit % | ROI % | P&L (u) | Avg odd | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong (positive) | 239 | 99 / 140 | 41.4% | -9.3% | -22.13 | 2.54 | 9.4% |
By market
| Market | N | W / L | Hit % | ROI % | P&L (u) | Avg odd | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
away |
85 | 28 / 57 | 32.9% | 8.4% | 7.18 | 3.41 | 9.3% |
under_35 |
61 | 39 / 22 | 63.9% | -7.6% | -4.62 | 1.46 | 9.7% |
under_25 |
48 | 18 / 30 | 37.5% | -32.1% | -15.42 | 1.98 | 9.1% |
home |
45 | 14 / 31 | 31.1% | -20.6% | -9.27 | 2.97 | 9.7% |
Methodology: each pick is graded at 1 unit flat stake. ROI = P&L / N. Tier labels come from the seed-sample backtest in value_finder.TIER; once enough live picks accumulate the tier table will become the source of truth.