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Liga ACB · Liga ACB 25/26 · Saturday, 16 May 2026 20:00 UTC · finished

Río Breogán

ELO 1507
95 : 76

Bàsquet Girona

ELO 1454

Prediction catboost-v1 (tier2)

69%
Río Breogán
Pick: Río Breogán · High
31%
Bàsquet Girona
Expected total
184
points
Projected score: 9490
Favorite wins
68%
probability the ELO-favourite wins
P(total > 205)
4%
P(total > 215)
2%
P(total > 225)
1%

Fixed lines (calibrated for NBA pace). For European leagues the predicted total is usually well below 205 — over X probabilities will be low by design.

Outcome: ✓ model got it right · Over 215:

Pre-game

Season form
Río Breogán #1115-19 · 0.441
Bàsquet Girona #1214-20 · 0.412
Venue
cap 5310
Pazo dos Deportes
Lugo · Spain

Players to watch

Francisco Alonso
G · Río Breogán
Last: 20p · 2r · 0a · rating 7.2

Form & trends

MetricValueTeam
First half loser 6/8 Bàsquet Girona
Scored points average (Last 10) 94 Río Breogán
Scored points average (Last 10) 85 Bàsquet Girona
Game points average (Last 10) 187 Río Breogán
Game points average (Last 10) 173 Bàsquet Girona

Head-to-head (last 10)

MetricValueTeam
First quarter winner 5/5 Bàsquet Girona
First quarter loser 5/5 Río Breogán
Scored points average (Last 10) 83 Río Breogán
Scored points average (Last 10) 81 Bàsquet Girona
Game points average (Last 10) 164 both

Score by period

PeriodRío BreogánBàsquet Girona
Period1 16 9
Period2 29 22
Period3 25 22
Period4 25 23

Box score

Río Breogán

PlayerMINPTSREBASTFG3P+/-
Mihajlo Andric F 26 16 2 2 5/9 4/7 +15
Dragan Apic F 23 12 1 1 4/5 0/0 -2
Keandre Cook G 24 11 4 0 4/9 2/5 +1
DeWayne Russell G 18 4 0 4 2/10 0/3 -1
Arturs Kurucs G 18 0 2 0 0/2 0/2 0
Danko Branković C 17 15 4 1 4/5 0/0 +21
Francisco Alonso G 22 12 3 4 4/8 2/6 +19
Aleksandar Aranitovic G 16 9 4 2 3/7 1/3 +18
Dominik Mavra G 21 9 3 9 2/5 0/1 +22
Bakary Dibba F 14 7 6 0 2/3 0/0 +4
Erik Quintela G 1 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 -2
Ivan Cruz F 0 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 0

Bàsquet Girona

PlayerMINPTSREBASTFG3P+/-
Otis Livingston G 29 15 3 5 5/9 2/4 -7
Derek Needham G 22 14 2 3 5/13 4/11 -21
Nikola Marić F 12 4 3 0 1/3 0/0 -10
Sergi Martinez F 23 2 3 0 1/5 0/3 -21
Pep Busquets G 22 0 7 1 0/7 0/5 -17
Martinas Geben C 22 16 8 0 6/9 0/1 -5
Cameron Hildreth G 17 11 1 3 3/5 0/1 -8
Mindaugas Susinskas F 19 10 4 3 4/6 2/3 +8
Mark Hughes G 17 4 2 0 2/6 0/3 +2
James Karnik C 6 0 1 1 0/2 0/1 -4
Ferrando Guillem G 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 0
Jose Vildoza G 11 0 2 2 0/2 0/2 -12