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Alexsandro de Souza
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
Athletic Club
4-1-4-1 · 4-3-3
São Bernardo
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
2'
⚽
Max · assist L. Belezi1–0
26'
⚽
L. Rian · assist L. Lima1–1
Half-time · 1–1
52'
🔁
D. Vera ◂ Carlinhos
52'
🔁
F. Negrucci ◂ G. Cabezas
57'
D. Miraíma · Foul
60'
🔁
W. Aponzá ◂ Ian Luccas
63'
⚽
F. Negrucci · assist D. B. d. Souza2–1
65'
🔁
Hyoran ◂ D. Miraíma
65'
🔁
M. Sergio ◂ Pará
65'
🔁
D. D. S. Roque ◂ Echaporã
77'
🔁
Yarlen ◂ Max
80'
🔁
D. Amorim ◂ L. Lima
82'
🔁
Fabrício Daniel ◂ L. Rian
87'
R. Ferreira · Foul
89'
F. Garcia · Foul
Full-time · 2–1
90'+1
W. Aponzá · Foul
Coaches
Alexsandro de SouzaRicardo Catalá 
Recent form
Athletic ClubDAAtlético Goianiense0-0
DACeará0-0
LHOperário-PR0-1
WHAvaí1-0
LALondrina0-2
São BernardoDHAvaí1-1
DHCuiabá2-2
LAVila Nova FC1-2
LACriciúma0-1
LHJuventude0-1
Where to watch
Disney+
Match facts
Stadium
Estádio Joaquim Portugal
City
São João del Rei
Referee
Leonardo Willers Lorenzatto
Kickoff
23 Jul, 22:30 UTC
Competition
Brasileirão Serie B
Highlights & clips
Athletic Club
4-1-4-1 · 4-3-3
São Bernardo
1
Luan Polli
10.0
22
D. B. d. Souza
6.8
3
Jhonathan
6.5
4
L. Belezi
7.1
23
Enzo
6.3
16
J. Miguel
7.2
7
Yarlen
6.5
↑ 77'
21
D. Vera
6.8
↑ 52'
17
K. Rodrigues
6.2
20
W. Aponzá
6.7
↑ 60'
6
F. Negrucci
7.6
↑ 52'
1
A. Alves
6.1
2
R. Ferreira
6.4
35
Jemerson
7.1
97
Augusto
7.0
33
M. Sergio
6.8
↑ 65'
89
D. Amorim
6.7
↑ 80'
8
Foguinho
6.4
42
Hyoran
7.3
↑ 65'
10
Fabrício Daniel
6.3
↑ 82'
9
F. Garcia
7.6
37
D. D. S. Roque
6.8
↑ 65'
Substitutes
12GG. Tadeu
13DF. Vieira
14DM. Henrique
19DJ. P. Torres
2DDouglas
11MMax↓ 77'7.8
8MG. Cabezas↓ 52'6.7
5MIan Luccas↓ 60'6.6
18MP. Oliveira
15MJota
10MGustavinho
9FCarlinhos↓ 52'6.1
Coach: Alexsandro de Souza
Top stats
39%Possession61%
0.7Expected goals (xG)1.76
10Total shots20
5Shots on target11
1Big chances4
2Corners6
Shots
2Shots off target4
3Blocked shots5
3Shots inside box10
7Shots outside box10
1Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored1
0Big chances missed4
2.97Goals prevented-1.15
Attack
11Touches in box20
46Final third entries66
5Offsides5
7Free kicks17
2Fouled in final third3
Passing
327Passes508
256Accurate passes434
24/59 (41%)Long balls29/52 (56%)
1/10 (10%)Crosses11/24 (46%)
18Throw-ins23
Duels
45Duels57
26/57 (46%)Ground duels30/55 (55%)
15/35 (43%)Aerial duels21/34 (62%)
5/10 (50%)Dribbles8/20 (40%)
1Dispossessed2
Defending
14Tackles6
71Tackles won33
9Interceptions9
26Clearances14
44Recoveries46
Discipline
17Fouls7
1Yellow cards3
Goalkeeping
10Saves3
3Big saves1
9Goal kicks4
4Punches0
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 67 bookmakers
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 93% · 1.21 @ betfair
1X2Draw 41% · 3.15 @ betfair
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 61% · 1.60 @ kto
CornersOver 9.5 corners 55% · 1.78 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 67% · 1.41 @ Betsson
BTTSBTTS: No 55% · 1.83 @ betfair
Who winsAthletic to win (DNB) 63% · 1.55 @ Betano
1X2São Bernardo to win 23% · 4.00 @ betfair
1X2Athletic to win 36% · 2.30 @ Betano
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 56% · 1.73 @ Unibet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 64% · 1.55 @ BTI Sports
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.10
Athletic Club ▲
2.99
Draw ▼
3.65
São Bernardo ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.25
Athletic Club or Draw ▲
1.35
Athletic Club or São Bernardo
1.66
Draw or São Bernardo ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
2.04
Yes
1.70
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.12
Over 0.50 ▲
6.25
Under 0.50 ▼
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.45
Over 1.50
2.59
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.39
Over 2.50
1.52
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
4.55
Over 3.50 ▲
1.17
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
10.84
Over 4.50 ▲
1.04
Under 4.50 ▼
Draw No Betconsensus
1.47
Athletic Club ▲
2.54
São Bernardo ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
14.00
Under 4.50
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.03
Over 5.50
10.00
Under 5.50
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.11
Over 6.50
5.40
Under 6.50
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.19
Over 7.50 ▲
4.13
Under 7.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.35
Over 8.50 ▲
2.81
Under 8.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.64
Over 9.50 ▲
2.07
Under 9.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.04
Over 10.50 ▲
1.69
Under 10.50 ▼
1.1 – 1.0Expected goals
1-1Most likely score
~10Expected corners
No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.
Every market recommended rows highlighted
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 93% | 94% | 1.02 | Fair | high |
| Draw1X2 | 41% | 41% | 2.2 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 2.5 goalsGoals | 61% | 61% | 1.52 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 9.5 cornersCorners | 55% | 56% | 1.63 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 67% | 68% | 1.34 | Overpriced | medium |
| BTTS: NoBTTS | 55% | 55% | 1.7 | Overpriced | low |
| Athletic to win (DNB)Who wins | 63% | 63% | 1.47 | Overpriced | medium |
| São Bernardo to win1X2 | 23% | 23% | 3.88 | Overpriced | low |
| Athletic to win1X2 | 36% | 36% | 2.5 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 10.5 cornersCorners | 56% | 54% | 1.71 | Fair | low |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 64% | 64% | 1.45 | Overpriced | medium |
Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: Over 3.5 goals — we say 18%, they say 6%.
Probability vs league average
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | 66% | -2% | No |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 42% | -3% | No |
| Over 3.5 goals | 7% | 18% | -11% | No |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 48% | -3% | No |
| Home win | 36% | 43% | -7% | No |
| Draw | 41% | 30% | +11% | Yes |
| Away win | 23% | 27% | -4% | No |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
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