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Ricardo Catalá
São Bernardo
Ceará
São Bernardo
4-3-3 · 4-4-1-1
Ceará
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
23'
⚽
H. Maciel · assist M. Sergio1–0
31'
Júlio César · Foul
Half-time · 1–0
46'
🔁
Echaporã ◂ D. D. S. Roque
46'
🔁
L. Holanda ◂ R. López
46'
🔁
Hugo ◂ L. Rian
46'
🔁
Giulio ◂ Thalisson Gabriel
47'
⚽
N. Ferreira · assist Giulio1–1
55'
Éder · Persistent fouling
56'
🔁
Hyoran ◂ Foguinho
56'
🔁
Pedrinho ◂ R. Ferreira
59'
⚽
Hugo2–1
62'
⚽
Vina · assist N. Ferreira2–2
66'
🔁
Richardson ◂ G. Pavani
68'
F. Garcia · Foul
74'
⚽
J. Gabriel · assist Giulio2–3
81'
⚽
Pedrinho · assist M. Sergio3–3
84'
🔁
Marcão Silva ◂ L. Lima
85'
🔁
Melk ◂ Vina
89'
🔁
E. Lodovico ◂ N. Ferreira
Full-time · 3–4
90'+1
⚽
E. Lodovico3–4
-5'
L. Rian · Violent conduct
Coaches
Ricardo CataláDaniel Paulista 
Recent form
São BernardoLAAthletic Club1-2
DHAvaí1-1
DHCuiabá2-2
LAVila Nova FC1-2
LACriciúma0-1
CearáLHClube De Regatas Brasil0-1
DAAmérica Mineiro1-1
DHAthletic Club0-0
LAGoiás0-2
LAJuventude0-2
Where to watch
PremiereSportvTV Globo
Match facts
Stadium
Estádio Primeiro de Maio
City
Sao Bernardo do Campo
Referee
Savio Pereira Sampaio
Kickoff
26 Jul, 19:00 UTC
Competition
Brasileirão Serie B
Highlights & clips
São Bernardo
4-3-3 · 4-4-1-1
Ceará
1
A. Alves
6.1
42
Hyoran
6.1
↑ 56'
3
H. Maciel
7.2
35
Jemerson
5.8
33
M. Sergio
6.8
77
Marcão Silva
6.4
↑ 84'
29
Pedrinho
7.9
↑ 56'
26
D. Miraíma
7.5
21
Hugo
6.6
↑ 46'
9
F. Garcia
7.0
27
Echaporã
6.8
↑ 46'
1
Richard
5.5
18
Júlio César
6.7
35
Giulio
7.3
↑ 46'
33
Éder
5.9
6
Sávio
6.2
31
B. Borges
7.4
26
Richardson
6.9
↑ 66'
81
J. Gabriel
8.2
60
E. Lodovico
7.6
↑ 89'
40
Melk
6.8
↑ 85'
99
L. Holanda
6.9
↑ 46'
Top stats
54%Possession46%
1.45Expected goals (xG)0.96
18Total shots17
5Shots on target8
3Big chances1
10Corners3
Shots
5Shots off target6
8Blocked shots3
11Shots inside box11
7Shots outside box6
1Hit woodwork0
2Big chances scored1
1Big chances missed0
-1.33Goals prevented-1.66
Attack
27Touches in box25
67Final third entries50
1Offsides1
20Free kicks13
2Fouled in final third2
Passing
407Passes357
345Accurate passes287
41/61 (67%)Long balls26/53 (49%)
9/23 (39%)Crosses7/18 (39%)
20Throw-ins15
Duels
44Duels55
35/87 (40%)Ground duels52/88 (59%)
14/25 (56%)Aerial duels11/26 (42%)
4/16 (25%)Dribbles11/16 (69%)
16Dispossessed7
Defending
11Tackles28
73Tackles won71
10Interceptions5
16Clearances27
40Recoveries46
Discipline
13Fouls20
1Yellow cards2
1Red cards0
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
1Big saves0
6Goal kicks6
0Punches1
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 46 bookmakers
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 62% · 1.55 @ betfair
CornersOver 9.5 corners 58% · 1.65 @ Unibet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 69% · 1.45 @ Betway
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 81% · 1.20 @ betfair
1X2Draw 33% · 3.10 @ tipico
BTTSBTTS: No 54% · 1.84 @ betfair
1X2Ceará to win 30% · 3.70 @ Novibet
Who winsSão Bernardo to win (DNB) 56% · 1.58 @ betfair
1X2São Bernardo to win 37% · 2.34 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 63% · 1.52 @ betfair
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 53% · 1.84 @ Pinnacle
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.20
São Bernardo
2.86
Draw
3.46
Ceará
Double Chanceconsensus
1.27
São Bernardo or Draw
1.36
São Bernardo or Ceará
1.58
Draw or Ceará
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
2.02
Yes
1.69
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.12
Over 0.50 ▲
6.45
Under 0.50 ▼
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.46
Over 1.50
2.50
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.45
Over 2.50
1.48
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
4.66
Over 3.50
1.16
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
9.90
Over 4.50 ▼
1.04
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.54
São Bernardo
2.34
Ceará
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
14.25
Under 4.50
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.04
Over 5.50 ▲
10.00
Under 5.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.11
Over 6.50 ▲
5.97
Under 6.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.18
Over 7.50
4.30
Under 7.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.34
Over 8.50 ▲
2.89
Under 8.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.58
Over 9.50 ▼
2.20
Under 9.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
1.96
Over 10.50 ▼
1.74
Under 10.50 ▼
1.4 – 0.8Expected goals
1-0Most likely score
~10Expected corners
No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.
Every market recommended rows highlighted
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goalsGoals | 62% | 63% | 1.49 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 9.5 cornersCorners | 58% | 58% | 1.59 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 69% | 69% | 1.32 | Overpriced | medium |
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 81% | 80% | 1.16 | Overpriced | high |
| Draw1X2 | 33% | 33% | 2.79 | Overpriced | low |
| BTTS: NoBTTS | 54% | 54% | 1.71 | Overpriced | low |
| Ceará to win1X2 | 30% | 30% | 3.12 | Overpriced | low |
| São Bernardo to win (DNB)Who wins | 56% | 56% | 1.67 | Overpriced | low |
| São Bernardo to win1X2 | 37% | 37% | 2.5 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 63% | 63% | 1.48 | Overpriced | medium |
| Under 10.5 cornersCorners | 53% | 53% | 1.75 | Overpriced | low |
Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: São Bernardo to win (DNB) — we say 74%, they say 56%.
Probability vs league average
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | 66% | -3% | No |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 42% | -4% | No |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 18% | +1% | Yes |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 48% | -2% | No |
| Home win | 37% | 43% | -6% | No |
| Draw | 33% | 30% | +3% | Yes |
| Away win | 30% | 27% | +3% | Yes |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
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