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Alexsandro de Souza
Athletic Club
Grêmio Novorizontino
Athletic Club
3-4-3 · 4-2-3-1
Grêmio Novorizontino
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
64835 EUR · live
Away
1.02 · implied 98.0%
80.3%
-17.7 vs price
Home
950.0 · implied 0.1%
12.6%
+12.5 vs price
Draw
60.0 · implied 1.7%
7.1%
+5.5 vs price
Half time
708 EUR
Draw
2.08 · implied 48.1%
91.5%
+43.4 vs price
Away
3.2 · implied 31.2%
6.4%
-24.9 vs price
Home
4.6 · implied 21.7%
2.1%
-19.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
40862 EUR · live
Over
1.85 · implied 54.1%
54.9%
+0.8 vs price
Under
2.18 · implied 45.9%
45.2%
-0.7 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
137 EUR
Over
13.0 · implied 7.7%
68.0%
+60.3 vs price
Under
1.07 · implied 93.5%
30.7%
-62.8 vs price
13 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
11'
D. B. d. Souza · Foul
18'
Jota · Foul
19'
⚽
N. Careca · assist Rômulo0–1
33'
🔁
D. Vera ◂ Jota
Half-time · 0–1
45'
Alex · Argument
45'+1
D. B. d. Souza · Foul
46'
🔁
Douglas ◂ J. P. Torres
59'
⚽
Robson0–2
61'
🔁
Assis ◂ Max
61'
🔁
M. Henrique ◂ Enzo
61'
🔁
Juninho ◂ Reidiney
68'
🔁
F. Vieira ◂ F. Negrucci
73'
🔁
M. Bianqui ◂ L. Naldi
73'
🔁
D. Galo ◂ Rômulo
77'
⚽
M. Bianqui · assist D. Galo0–3
80'
🔁
Carlão ◂ Robson
80'
🔁
M. Jesus ◂ N. Careca
81'
⚽
W. Aponzá · assist Assis1–3
Full-time · 1–4
90'+5
⚽
Luís Oyama · assist Juninho1–4
Coaches
Alexsandro de SouzaEnderson Moreira 
Recent form
Athletic ClubLHCRB0-2
WAAmérica Mineiro3-1
WHCriciúma2-0
DAPonte Preta1-1
WHSão Bernardo2-1
Grêmio NovorizontinoWHAmérica Mineiro3-0
DACRB0-0
LHJuventude0-1
WALondrina4-1
LHCriciúma0-1
Where to watch
Disney+
Match facts
Stadium
Estádio Joaquim Portugal
City
São João del Rei
Kickoff
24 Aug, 22:30 UTC
Competition
Brasileirão Serie B
Highlights & clips
Athletic Club
3-4-3 · 4-2-3-1
Grêmio Novorizontino
1
Luan Polli
6.8
4
L. Belezi
5.9
16
J. Miguel
6.2
2
Douglas
6.5
↑ 46'
22
D. B. d. Souza
5.5
13
F. Vieira
6.1
↑ 68'
21
D. Vera
6.3
↑ 33'
6
M. Henrique
6.2
↑ 61'
18
Assis
6.5
↑ 61'
20
W. Aponzá
7.1
17
K. Rodrigues
7.0
93
Jordi
6.6
2
Madson
7.0
26
G. Bahia
6.8
4
Patrick
7.0
5
Sander
7.0
6
Luís Oyama
7.9
17
M. Bianqui
7.5
↑ 73'
50
Juninho
6.7
↑ 61'
19
D. Galo
6.8
↑ 73'
66
M. Jesus
6.4
↑ 80'
9
Carlão
6.6
↑ 80'
Substitutes
12GTony
19DJ. P. Torres↓ 46'6.6
23DEnzo↓ 61'6.4
15MJota↓ 33'6.3
5MF. Negrucci↓ 68'6.3
3MA. Pena
9MK. Lindes
7MBruninho
14MY. Santos
8MG. Cabezas
10MGustavinho
11FMax↓ 61'6.9
Coach: Alexsandro de Souza
Substitutes
31GCésar
22DA. Alvariño
14DE. Brock
10MRômulo↓ 73'7.0
41MReidiney↓ 61'6.7
18ML. Naldi↓ 73'6.5
28MMarlon
16MVinicius Paiva
30FN. Careca↓ 80'7.7
11FRobson↓ 80'7.1
27FD. Mathias
Coach: Enderson Moreira
Top stats
45%Possession55%
1.28Expected goals (xG)3.36
10Total shots16
1Shots on target8
2Big chances5
9Corners5
Shots
8Shots off target7
1Blocked shots1
5Shots inside box11
5Shots outside box5
1Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored2
1Big chances missed3
0.29Goals prevented-0.76
Attack
14Touches in box25
57Final third entries78
3Offsides2
7Free kicks12
1Fouled in final third3
Passing
394Passes492
317Accurate passes406
19/55 (35%)Long balls31/64 (48%)
2/26 (8%)Crosses5/26 (19%)
22Throw-ins33
Duels
43Duels57
21/50 (42%)Ground duels29/50 (58%)
13/29 (45%)Aerial duels16/29 (55%)
5/13 (38%)Dribbles4/7 (57%)
5Dispossessed6
Defending
9Tackles13
56Tackles won54
8Interceptions6
33Clearances31
61Recoveries51
Discipline
12Fouls7
3Yellow cards0
1Red cards0
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
1Big saves0
6Goal kicks14
1Punches0
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 53 bookmakers
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 60% · 1.12 @ Unibet
CornersOver 9.5 corners 56% · 1.80 @ 10bet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 67% · 1.38 @ Unibet
Who winsNovorizontino to win (DNB) 50% · 1.85 @ forbet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 79% · 1.21 @ kto
1X2Draw 31% · 2.35 @ kto
1X2Novorizontino to win 36% · 3.14 @ granmadrid
BTTSBTTS: No 52% · 1.22 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 66% · 2.62 @ William Hill
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 55% · 1.87 @ 1xBet
1X2Athletic to win 32% · 3.70 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.70
Athletic Club
2.92
Draw
2.65
Grêmio Novorizontino
Double Chanceconsensus
1.42
Athletic Club or Draw
1.35
Athletic Club or Grêmio Novorizontino
1.41
Draw or Grêmio Novorizontino
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
2.00
Yes
1.71
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
4.90
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
3.58
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.07
Over 0.50
7.37
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.46
Over 1.50
2.51
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.40
Over 2.50
1.50
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
4.60
Over 3.50
1.16
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
9.50
Over 4.50
1.04
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.85
Athletic Club
1.83
Grêmio Novorizontino
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.16
Over 7.50
4.33
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.31
Over 8.50
2.98
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.67
Over 9.50
2.10
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.00
Over 10.50
1.74
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.42
Over 11.50
1.49
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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