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Alexsandro de Souza
Athletic Club
Vila Nova FC
Athletic Club
4-1-4-1 · 4-3-3
Vila Nova FC
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
32205 EUR · live
Home
1.65 · implied 60.6%
43.0%
-17.6 vs price
Away
7.6 · implied 13.2%
34.4%
+21.2 vs price
Draw
3.8 · implied 26.3%
22.6%
-3.7 vs price
Half time
803 EUR
Draw
2.04 · implied 49.0%
67.3%
+18.2 vs price
Home
4.0 · implied 25.0%
28.3%
+3.3 vs price
Away
3.85 · implied 26.0%
4.4%
-21.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
5963 EUR · live
Under
1.96 · implied 51.0%
61.1%
+10.0 vs price
Over
2.04 · implied 49.0%
38.9%
-10.1 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
356 EUR
Under
1.07 · implied 93.5%
73.3%
-20.2 vs price
Over
14.0 · implied 7.1%
26.7%
+19.5 vs price
12 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
19'
⚽
Y. Santos · assist K. Rodrigues1–0
32'
A. Luís · Foul
39'
Nathan Camargo · Foul
40'
⚽
Carlinhos2–0
42'
Alex · Argument
Half-time · 3–0
45'
⚽
D. Vera · assist Carlinhos3–0
46'
🔁
J. Costa ◂ I. Cariús
46'
🔁
R. Lima ◂ Everton Galdino
46'
🔁
Jota ◂ Y. Santos
46'
🔁
Dodô ◂ Nathan Camargo
63'
🔁
W. Aponzá ◂ Carlinhos
63'
🔁
Assis ◂ K. Lindes
64'
D. Vera · Foul
65'
🔁
Bruninho ◂ D. Vera
72'
T. Pagnussat · Violent conduct
72'
VAR
Penalty check · W. Aponzá
74'
⚽
W. Aponzá (pen)4–0
75'
🔁
R. E. C. Junior ◂ Marquinhos Gabriel
79'
Yarlen · Argument
82'
🔁
G. P. P. Lemos ◂ A. Luís
86'
🔁
P. Sampaio ◂ F. Negrucci
88'
W. Aponzá · Foul
Full-time · 5–0
90'+1
⚽
Bruninho · assist K. Rodrigues5–0
Coaches
Alexsandro de SouzaGuto Ferreira 
Recent form
Athletic ClubLANáutico1-2
LHGrêmio Novorizontino1-4
LHCRB0-2
WAAmérica Mineiro3-1
WHCriciúma2-0
Vila Nova FCWHCeará2-0
DAOperário-PR0-0
WHPonte Preta6-0
WAAtlético Goianiense2-0
LHSport Recife0-1
Where to watch
Disney+
Match facts
Stadium
Estádio Joaquim Portugal
City
São João del Rei
Kickoff
04 Sep, 23:30 UTC
Competition
Brasileirão Serie B
Highlights & clips
Athletic Club
4-1-4-1 · 4-3-3
Vila Nova FC
1
Luan Polli
7.4
22
D. B. d. Souza
7.5
3
Jhonathan
7.1
4
L. Belezi
7.9
23
Enzo
13
P. Sampaio
6.7
↑ 86'
7
Bruninho
8.3
↑ 65'
15
Jota
7.2
↑ 46'
17
K. Rodrigues
7.5
18
Assis
6.9
↑ 63'
20
W. Aponzá
6.9
↑ 63'
1
H. Leite
6.4
22
Hayner
5.5
3
T. Pagnussat
5.7
13
W. Formiga
5.9
4
J. Costa
6.7
↑ 46'
11
R. Lima
7.1
↑ 46'
8
Willian Maranhão
6.4
14
R. E. C. Junior
6.7
↑ 75'
31
Dodô
6.2
↑ 46'
9
G. P. P. Lemos
6.4
↑ 82'
99
Janderson
6.7
Substitutes
12GTony
6DM. Henrique
19DJ. P. Torres
21MD. Vera↓ 65'7.9
14MY. Santos↓ 46'7.4
5MF. Negrucci↓ 86'6.9
11MK. Lindes↓ 63'6.6
2MA. Pena
8MG. Cabezas
10MGustavinho
9FCarlinhos↓ 63'8.4
16FYarlen
Coach: Alexsandro de Souza
Top stats
42%Possession58%
3.19Expected goals (xG)0.94
14Total shots12
11Shots on target4
5Big chances2
2Corners2
Shots
2Shots off target4
1Blocked shots4
9Shots inside box5
5Shots outside box7
5Big chances scored0
0Big chances missed2
0.24Goals prevented-0.24
Attack
22Touches in box12
51Final third entries61
1Offsides0
10Free kicks17
5Fouled in final third1
Passing
372Passes522
309Accurate passes445
21/49 (43%)Long balls20/50 (40%)
0/15 (0%)Crosses3/12 (25%)
22Throw-ins26
Duels
48Duels52
35/70 (50%)Ground duels35/70 (50%)
8/20 (40%)Aerial duels12/20 (60%)
7/11 (64%)Dribbles5/18 (28%)
11Dispossessed5
Defending
18Tackles15
44Tackles won60
12Interceptions6
22Clearances18
49Recoveries49
Discipline
17Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
1Big saves3
7Goal kicks5
1Punches0
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 62% · 1.12 @ Unibet
CornersOver 9.5 corners 54% · 1.80 @ 10bet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 66% · 1.46 @ Unibet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 80% · 1.19 @ Unibet
BTTSBTTS: No 54% · 1.22 @ 10bet
1X2Draw 31% · 2.38 @ Unibet
1X2Vila Nova to win 33% · 3.25 @ William Hill
Who winsAthletic to win (DNB) 60% · 1.91 @ Betano
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 57% · 1.71 @ Pinnacle
1X2Athletic to win 35% · 3.04 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 64% · 2.69 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.61
Athletic Club
2.91
Draw
2.75
Vila Nova FC
Double Chanceconsensus
1.40
Athletic Club or Draw
1.36
Athletic Club or Vila Nova FC
1.44
Draw or Vila Nova FC
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
2.10
Yes
1.65
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
4.03
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
4.17
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.07
Over 0.50
6.52
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.50
Over 1.50
2.52
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.55
Over 2.50
1.48
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
5.00
Over 3.50
1.17
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
10.50
Over 4.50
1.04
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.85
Athletic Club
1.85
Vila Nova FC
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.21
Over 7.50
3.73
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.41
Over 8.50
2.64
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.71
Over 9.50
2.02
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.10
Over 10.50
1.70
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.68
Over 11.50
1.39
Under 11.50
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
Under 3.5 goals
✗
80% confidence
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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