Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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**Mineiro's looking to bounce back hard** after that stinging loss to Cruzeiro — home advantage and a winnable matchup is exactly what the doctor ordered. 🔴⚪
América sits 2W-3L over five, riding a solid **2-0 win over Ponte Preta** but coming off that gut-punch away at CRB. São Bernardo are the inconsistent ones here (1W-2D-2L), and they're missing key defensive pieces **Salustiano and Andrade** to injury — that's a real blow to their backline.
Key storylines:
- **Mineiro's home fortress** at Arena Independência needs to flex after a rough road stretch
- **São Bernardo's injury crisis** leaves Jemerson and the back four stretched thin
- **F. Elizari and P. Victor** lead the Mineiro attack against a depleted visiting defense
Expected lineups:
- **América Mineiro**: B. Brígido, R. Silva, T. Ostchega, Manoel, A. Silva, G. Parede, Barreto, J. César, F. Amaral, F. Elizari, P. Victor
- **São Bernardo**: A. Alves, R. Ferreira, Jemerson, H. Maciel, Pará, D. Miraíma, Foguinho, Echaporã, Romisson, F. Garcia, Pedrinho
Prediction:
**Mineiro 2-0 São Bernardo**. Home side should capitalize on their hosts' injury woes and get back on track. 💪
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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