Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Avaí's looking to bounce back at home, but Vila Nova are the real form team** — the visitors come in hot while the home side's been stuttering 🔴
Avaí have won just 2 of their last 5, including two straight losses, while Vila Nova sit 3-1 in their past four. The head-to-head is dead even, so this could genuinely go either way on paper.
Key storylines:
- **Avaí's home court** — they need to arrest a skid at the Ressacada and can't afford another slip
- **Vila Nova's offensive balance** — Everton Galdino and Dellatorre leading the charge for a side that just demolished Ceará 2-0
- **Midfield control** — L. Henrique and P. Vitor up against Janderson and Marquinhos Gabriel in a chess match
Expected lineups:
- **Avaí**: B. Ferreira, D. Teixeira, Allyson, J. Maciel, J. Vitor, L. Henrique, P. Vitor, Léo Chú, J. Lucas, G. Cipriano, F. Vizeu
- **Vila Nova FC**: H. Leite, Higor, Breno, T. Pagnussat, Hayner, Janderson, Marquinhos Gabriel, A. Luís, J. Vieira, Everton Galdino, Dellatorre
Prediction:
**1-1 draw** — both squads are capable, but Avaí's fragility at the back combined with Vila Nova's recent poise suggests a cagey, even affair 🤝
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.5%.
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