Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
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Enderson Moreira
Grêmio Novorizontino
Cuiabá**Novorizontino is absolutely rolling** — five straight wins puts them in a different orbit than most of Serie B. Cuiabá can score but just got torched by Criciúma. 🔥
Novorizontino's attack has been relentless: three goals in back-to-back games vs Botafogo-SP and Avaí. Cuiabá's defense showed cracks away from home (0-2 loss) and they'll be without stability facing a side that hasn't dropped points in five matches.
Key storylines:
- **Novorizontino's firepower** — Robson, N. Careca, and Rômulo have been clinical; Cuiabá's back three (Eric, J. Basso, Vitor Mendes) under pressure
- **Home advantage matters** — Novorizontino unbeaten at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi; Cuiabá struggles on the road
- **H2H edge to Novorizontino** — 2 wins, 1 draw in the last three head-to-heads
Expected lineups:
- **Grêmio Novorizontino**: Jordi, M. Jesus, Patrick, G. Bahia, Madson, Luís Oyama, L. Naldi, Vinicius Paiva, Rômulo, N. Careca, Robson
- **Cuiabá**: J. Carlos, Eric, J. Basso, Vitor Mendes, Igor, Pepê, Raul, C. Costa, K. Cristtyan, Fábio Gomes, J. Dias
Prediction:
**Grêmio Novorizontino 2–0 Cuiabá**
The hosts lean on rhythm and clinical finishing; Cuiabá lacks the defensive solidity to contain this run.
Grêmio Novorizontino
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
Cuiabá
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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