Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
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Average positions
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Daniel Paulista
Ceará
Grêmio Novorizontino**Ceará's home fortress meets a **Grêmio Novorizontino side riding absolute fire** — four wins in five, no losses. Expect fireworks.** 🔥
Ceará's been patchy lately (2W-1D-2L) but thrives at the Governador Plácido Castelo. Grêmio Novorizontino, though, won't care about the crowd — they're the form team in Serie B right now and hold a 3-2 edge in recent head-to-heads.
Key storylines:
- **Grêmio Novorizontino's offensive machine**: Three wins in the last four games, racking up goals. Patrick and Rômulo anchoring a defense that's barely blinked.
- **Ceará need momentum at home**: With Vina and Melk in midfield, they can carve openings, but stopping **Robson and Rômulo** will be the real test.
- **Set-piece battles**: Both sides compact in the middle; expect scrappy, tactical play where delivery matters.
Expected lineups:
- **Ceará**: Richard, Sávio, Júlio César, L. Otávio, B. Borges, J. Gabriel, G. Rocha, N. Ferreira, Vina, Melk, L. Holanda
- **Grêmio Novorizontino**: Jordi, M. Jesus, Patrick, G. Bahia, Madson, Luís Oyama, L. Naldi, Reidiney, Rômulo, R. Barcellos, Robson
Prediction:
**Grêmio Novorizontino 1-2 Ceará.** Home pressure tips it, but it's razor-thin. 📍
Ceará
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Grêmio Novorizontino
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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