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Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Sport Recife
Athletic Club
Sport Recife
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Sport Recife
Sport Recife
Sport Recife
Sport Recife
Alexsandro de Souza
Athletic Club
Sport Recife
Athletic Club
3-5-1-1 · 4-2-3-1
Sport Recife
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Athletic Club 1-2 Sport Recife.
90+2'
Athletic Club
Corner, Athletic Club.
90'
5 minutes of added time.
90'
Athletic Club
Corner, Athletic Club.
84'
Sport Recife
Corner, Sport Recife.
80'
Athletic Club
Corner, Athletic Club.
75'
Sport Recife
Corner, Sport Recife.
75'
Attempt blocked. P. de Paula (Sport Recife), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.03.
71'
Athletic Club
Corner, Athletic Club.
60'
Attempt saved. K. Rodrigues (Athletic Club), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.02.
59'
Attempt missed. P. de Paula (Sport Recife), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.08.
58'
Athletic Club
Corner, Athletic Club.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Athletic Club 1-2 Sport Recife.
45+3'
Attempt missed. Jhonathan (Athletic Club), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.07.
45+3'
Athletic Club
Corner, Athletic Club.
45'
6 minutes of added time.
44'
Athletic Club
Corner, Athletic Club.
33'
Goal! Athletic Club 1-2 Sport Recife. Carlos De Pena (Sport Recife) scores, assisted by Claudinho.
30'
Athletic Club
Offside, Athletic Club.
27'
Athletic Club
Corner, Athletic Club.
26'
Attempt blocked. K. Lindes (Athletic Club), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.09.
24'
Goal! Athletic Club 1-1 Sport Recife. K. Rodrigues (Athletic Club) scores, assisted by Y. Santos.
14'
Goal! Athletic Club 0-1 Sport Recife. N. Pessoa (Sport Recife) scores, assisted by J. Alano.
14'
Sport Recife
Corner, Sport Recife.
10'
Sport Recife
Corner, Sport Recife.
7'
Sport Recife
Corner, Sport Recife.
5'
Sport Recife
Corner, Sport Recife.
1'
Kick-off: Athletic Club vs Sport Recife.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
20778 EUR · live
Away
3.3 · implied 30.3%
48.0%
+17.7 vs price
Home
2.74 · implied 36.5%
39.2%
+2.7 vs price
Draw
3.05 · implied 32.8%
12.8%
-20.0 vs price
Half time
212 EUR
Draw
2.16 · implied 46.3%
42.4%
-3.9 vs price
Home
3.55 · implied 28.2%
39.6%
+11.4 vs price
Away
4.1 · implied 24.4%
17.4%
-7.0 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
15075 EUR · live
Under
6.6 · implied 15.2%
80.2%
+65.0 vs price
Over
1.18 · implied 84.7%
19.8%
-64.9 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
83 EUR
Over
11.5 · implied 8.7%
52.7%
+44.0 vs price
Under
1.09 · implied 91.7%
45.5%
-46.2 vs price
12 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Player of the match
Match events
14'
⚽
N. Pessoa · assist J. Alano0–1
20'
🔁
Carlos De Pena ◂ Marlon
24'
⚽
K. Rodrigues · assist Y. Santos1–1
26'
Max · Argument
33'
⚽
Carlos De Pena · assist Claudinho1–2
42'
🔁
W. Aponzá ◂ P. Oliveira
Half-time · 1–2
46'
🔁
P. de Paula ◂ J. Alano
59'
🔁
Yarlen ◂ Y. Santos
65'
Carlos De Pena · Argument
65'
B. Fonseca · Foul
70'
🔁
Perotti ◂ N. Pessoa
70'
🔁
Zé Gabriel ◂ B. Fonseca
73'
🔁
Bruninho ◂ Enzo
73'
🔁
D. Vera ◂ Douglas
73'
🔁
F. Negrucci ◂ J. Miguel
73'
K. Lindes · Foul
Full-time · 1–2
90'+4
🔁
E. Lucas ◂ Carlos De Pena
Coaches
Alexsandro de SouzaMariano Soso 
Recent form
Athletic ClubDAFortaleza2-2
DHBotafogo-SP1-1
WAJuventude2-0
LACuiabá0-3
WHVila Nova FC5-0
Sport RecifeLANáutico1-3
WHJuventude2-1
LACRB1-2
WHPonte Preta2-0
LACeará1-2
About this match
**Athletic Club's form is clicking at the right moment — they're unbeaten in their last four and hosting a Sport Recife side that's wobbling hard.** 🔴⚪
Athletic rolled 2-0 past Juventude away, then steadied with draws. Sport Recife, meanwhile, got hammered 1-3 by Náutico and dropped 1-2 to CRB — they're 3L in their last five. Head-to-head? Athletic's got the edge, unbeaten in the last two.
Key storylines:
- **Athletic Club's midfield engine** — Enzo and D. B. d. Souza controlling tempo against **Sport's shaky back line**, especially with Claudinho and W. Oliveira carrying defensive load
- **Max and Carlinhos upfront** need to exploit Sport's recent defensive fragility; this is a chance to pile on the pressure
- **Perotti's creativity** is Sport's main outlet, but without momentum behind them, he'll be playing catch-up all night
Expected lineups:
- **Athletic Club**: Luan Polli, L. Belezi, Jhonathan, P. Sampaio, Enzo, D. B. d. Souza, K. Rodrigues, J. Miguel, Max, Carlinhos, W. Aponzá
- **Sport Recife**: T. Couto, E. Lucas, M. Ajul, K. Almeida, Claudinho, W. Oliveira, Zé Gabriel, Clayson, Diego Hernández, C. Barletta, Perotti
Prediction:
**Athletic Club 2-0 Sport Recife**
Athletic's defensive shape and midfield control should suffocate Sport's misfiring attack. Lean Athletic.
Where to watch
BetanoDisney+
Match facts
Stadium
Estádio Joaquim Portugal
City
São João del Rei
Kickoff
01 Oct, 23:30 UTC
Competition
Brasileirão Serie B
Athletic Club
3-5-1-1 · 4-2-3-1
Sport Recife
1
Luan Polli
5.1
21
D. Vera
6.7
↑ 73'
3
Jhonathan
7.0
4
L. Belezi
7.3
20
W. Aponzá
6.9
↑ 42'
9
Yarlen
6.9
↑ 59'
7
Bruninho
7.0
↑ 73'
10
K. Lindes
6.0
5
F. Negrucci
6.7
↑ 73'
17
K. Rodrigues
8.3
11
Max
6.4
26
T. Couto
8.1
27
Claudinho
7.2
5
Marcelo
6.3
3
M. Ajul
7.1
76
R. Lopes
6.8
23
Zé Gabriel
6.7
↑ 70'
29
W. Oliveira
7.0
30
C. Barletta
6.6
7
P. de Paula
6.9
↑ 46'
10
Carlos De Pena
8.0
↑ 20'
9
Perotti
6.4
↑ 70'
Substitutes
12GTony
2DDouglas↓ 73'6.7
23DEnzo↓ 73'6.6
22DD. B. d. Souza
6DM. Henrique
19DJ. P. Torres
14MY. Santos↓ 59'6.9
16MJ. Miguel↓ 73'6.8
18MP. Oliveira↓ 42'6.3
15MJota
8MG. Cabezas
13MAssis
Coach: Alexsandro de Souza
Substitutes
21GBrenno
96DE. Lucas↑ 90'
40DM. Baraka
28DHabraão
8MJ. Alano↓ 46'7.0
6MB. Fonseca↓ 70'6.6
31MMarlon↓ 20'6.5
80MK. Andrade
25MClayson
19FN. Pessoa↓ 70'7.9
77FDudu
Coach: Mariano Soso
Top stats
56%Possession44%
2.04Expected goals (xG)0.69
30Total shots12
8Shots on target5
3Big chances1
8Corners6
Shots
12Shots off target6
10Blocked shots1
20Shots inside box8
10Shots outside box4
3Big chances missed1
-1.39Goals prevented1.02
Attack
33Touches in box14
77Final third entries40
1Offsides0
15Free kicks12
3Fouled in final third4
Passing
445Passes352
390Accurate passes287
31/46 (67%)Long balls18/42 (43%)
10/31 (32%)Crosses6/17 (35%)
27Throw-ins19
Duels
45Duels55
35/70 (50%)Ground duels35/70 (50%)
7/23 (30%)Aerial duels16/23 (70%)
10/23 (43%)Dribbles5/11 (45%)
8Dispossessed4
Defending
10Tackles21
70Tackles won76
13Interceptions10
9Clearances37
42Recoveries43
Discipline
12Fouls15
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
1Big saves2
3Goal kicks13
0Punches3
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers
Who winsAthletic to win (DNB) 69% · 1.80 @ Bet365
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 58% · 1.11 @ William Hill
CornersOver 9.5 corners 52% · 1.68 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 64% · 1.35 @ 1xBet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 77% · 1.22 @ Pinnacle
1X2Draw 30% · 2.38 @ 1xBet
BTTSBTTS: No 52% · 1.25 @ Bet365
1X2Sport Recife to win 31% · 3.66 @ 1xBet
1X2Athletic to win 40% · 2.87 @ Bet365
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 59% · 1.72 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 67% · 2.45 @ William Hill
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.27
Athletic Club
3.10
Draw
3.05
Sport Recife
Double Chanceconsensus
1.33
Athletic Club or Draw
1.33
Athletic Club or Sport Recife
1.58
Draw or Sport Recife
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.91
Yes
1.80
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
3.50
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
4.80
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.05
Over 0.50
8.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.40
Over 1.50
2.85
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.30
Over 2.50
1.60
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
4.41
Over 3.50
1.21
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
9.00
Over 4.50
1.03
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.75
Athletic Club
1.96
Sport Recife
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.15
Over 7.50
4.12
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.35
Over 8.50
2.81
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.66
Over 9.50
2.13
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.05
Over 10.50
1.71
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.60
Over 11.50
1.41
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
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