Botafogo-SP 0-1 Vila Nova FC: Stats, xG & Lineups

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Botafogo-SP 0-1 Vila Nova FC.

90+2'

Vilar

Attempt missed. Vilar (Botafogo-SP), header from a corner. xG 0.21.

90+2'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

90'

7 minutes of added time.

88'

Kelvin

Attempt blocked. Kelvin (Botafogo-SP), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

88'

R. Gava

Substitution, Botafogo-SP: Thiaguinho comes on for R. Gava.

87'

Pedrinho

Substitution, Botafogo-SP: Gabriel Inocêncio comes on for Pedrinho.

87'

L. Maciel

Substitution, Botafogo-SP: Arthur Caíke comes on for L. Maciel.

86'

Janderson

Substitution, Vila Nova FC: Dodô comes on for Janderson.

86'

J. Vieira

Substitution, Vila Nova FC: W. Formiga comes on for J. Vieira.

84'

Botafogo-SP

Offside, Botafogo-SP.

83'

Hygor

VAR check complete: the goal for Botafogo-SP stands.

81'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

80'

W. Pinheiro

Attempt saved. W. Pinheiro (Botafogo-SP), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

79'

E. d. Silva

Yellow card for E. d. Silva (Botafogo-SP) for foul.

78'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

78'

P. Brey

Attempt blocked. P. Brey (Botafogo-SP), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

76'

Hygor

Attempt missed. Hygor (Botafogo-SP), header. xG 0.32.

74'

L. Maciel

Yellow card for L. Maciel (Botafogo-SP) for foul.

73'

J. Vieira

Yellow card for J. Vieira (Vila Nova FC) for foul.

72'

E. Morelli

Attempt missed. E. Morelli (Botafogo-SP), header from a set piece. xG 0.03.

70'

Marquinhos Gabriel

Substitution, Vila Nova FC: H. Meritão comes on for Marquinhos Gabriel.

70'

A. Luís

Substitution, Vila Nova FC: Lincoln comes on for A. Luís.

70'

Hayner

Yellow card for Hayner (Vila Nova FC) for time wasting.

68'

Z. Hugo

Substitution, Botafogo-SP: W. Pinheiro comes on for Z. Hugo.

68'

M. Sales

Substitution, Botafogo-SP: Kelvin comes on for M. Sales.

67'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

66'

L. Maciel

Attempt missed. L. Maciel (Botafogo-SP), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

65'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

61'

Everton Galdino

Substitution, Vila Nova FC: Emerson Urso comes on for Everton Galdino.

59'

D. D. Santos

Attempt missed. D. D. Santos (Vila Nova FC), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.05.

58'

E. Morelli

Attempt saved. E. Morelli (Botafogo-SP), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

58'

Vilar

Attempt saved. Vilar (Botafogo-SP), right-footed shot. xG 0.27.

58'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

55'

L. Maciel

Attempt blocked. L. Maciel (Botafogo-SP), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.01.

55'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

53'

L. Maciel

Attempt blocked. L. Maciel (Botafogo-SP), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

53'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

52'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

51'

Vila Nova FC

Offside, Vila Nova FC.

51'

D. D. Santos

Attempt saved. D. D. Santos (Vila Nova FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

50'

Vila Nova FC

Offside, Vila Nova FC.

48'

Vila Nova FC

Corner, Vila Nova FC.

48'

D. D. Santos

Attempt saved. D. D. Santos (Vila Nova FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Botafogo-SP 0-1 Vila Nova FC.

45+2'

Janderson

Goal! Botafogo-SP 0-1 Vila Nova FC. Janderson (Vila Nova FC) scores, assisted by Hayner.

45+1'

Botafogo-SP

Offside, Botafogo-SP.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

41'

M. Sales

Attempt missed. M. Sales (Botafogo-SP), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.01.

38'

Pedrinho

Attempt blocked. Pedrinho (Botafogo-SP), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

34'

E. Morelli

Attempt missed. E. Morelli (Botafogo-SP), header. xG 0.03.

33'

E. Morelli

Attempt missed. E. Morelli (Botafogo-SP), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.08.

31'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

27'

Marquinhos Gabriel

Yellow card for Marquinhos Gabriel (Vila Nova FC) for argument.

22'

Botafogo-SP

Offside, Botafogo-SP.

21'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

16'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

13'

Botafogo-SP

Corner, Botafogo-SP.

6'

E. Morelli

Attempt missed. E. Morelli (Botafogo-SP), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

2'

Janderson

Attempt blocked. Janderson (Vila Nova FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

1'

Kick-off: Botafogo-SP vs Vila Nova FC.

Where the money is

213885 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 108376 EUR · live

Away 1.04 · implied 96.2%

78.8%

-17.3 vs price

Home 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

11.5%

+11.4 vs price

Draw 17.5 · implied 5.7%

11.4%

+5.7 vs price

Half time 158 EUR

Draw 2.1 · implied 47.6%

85.6%

+38.0 vs price

Away 4.2 · implied 23.8%

10.1%

-13.7 vs price

Home 3.5 · implied 28.6%

3.2%

-25.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 33467 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

89.6%

-9.4 vs price

Over 50.0 · implied 2.0%

10.4%

+8.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 74 EUR

Over 13.5 · implied 7.4%

67.7%

+60.3 vs price

Under 1.09 · implied 91.7%

31.1%

-60.6 vs price

12 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

27' Marquinhos Gabriel · Argument

Half-time · 0–1

45'⁺² ⚽ Janderson · assist Hayner0–1

61' 🔁 Emerson Urso ◂ Everton Galdino

68' 🔁 Kelvin ◂ M. Sales

68' 🔁 W. Pinheiro ◂ Z. Hugo

70' 🔁 Lincoln ◂ A. Luís

70' 🔁 H. Meritão ◂ Marquinhos Gabriel

70' Hayner · Time wasting

73' J. Vieira · Foul

74' L. Maciel · Foul

79' E. d. Silva · Foul

83' VAR Goal not given after review · Hygor

86' 🔁 W. Formiga ◂ J. Vieira

86' 🔁 Dodô ◂ Janderson

87' 🔁 Arthur Caíke ◂ L. Maciel

87' 🔁 Gabriel Inocêncio ◂ Pedrinho

88' 🔁 Thiaguinho ◂ R. Gava

Full-time · 0–1

Coaches

Cláudio Tencati

Guto Ferreira

Recent form

Botafogo-SP

WHPonte Preta2-0

DAAthletic Club1-1

LHGoiás1-3

LHGrêmio Novorizontino1-3

LANáutico0-1

Vila Nova FC

WHLondrina2-0

WHAmérica Mineiro1-0

DAAvaí1-1

WHGoiás2-0

LAAthletic Club0-5

About this match

**Vila Nova's rolling in hot, and Botafogo-SP's form is a minefield** — this could be the upset special or a reality check. 🔥

Botafogo's limping along (1W in their last five), while Vila Nova's carrying serious momentum with three wins in their stretch. The head-to-head favors Vila Nova heavy, too — 5 wins to Botafogo's 3 across their recent clashes.

Key storylines:

- **Vila Nova's attacking teeth** (Dellatorre, A. Luís, Marquinhos Gabriel) versus a **Botafogo-SP defense missing Carlão** at left-center-back
- **Hygor and Z. Hugo** need to finally click in the final third for Botafogo to crack a struggling outfit's rhythm
- **Janderson and D. D. Santos** controlling the midfield could be the difference-maker in a Serie B playoff-level intensity match

Expected lineups:

- **Botafogo-SP**: V. Souza, P. Brey, Vilar, E. d. Silva, Gabriel Inocêncio, R. Gava, E. Morelli, W. Pinheiro, M. Sales, Z. Hugo, Hygor
- **Vila Nova FC**: H. Leite, Higor, D. Mendes, T. Pagnussat, Hayner, J. Vieira, D. D. Santos, Janderson, Marquinhos Gabriel, A. Luís, Dellatorre

Prediction:

**Vila Nova 2–0 Botafogo-SP**

The visitors' form and H2H edge is just too strong here.

Where to watch

Disney+ESPN

Match facts

Stadium

Estádio Santa Cruz

City

Ribeirao Preto

Referee

Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes

4.69 yellows/match · 48 matches

Kickoff

03 Oct, 21:30 UTC

Competition

Brasileirão Serie B

Highlights & clips

Botafogo-SP 4-1-4-1 · 4-2-3-1 Vila Nova FC

1 V. Souza 7.0 22 Gabriel Inocêncio 6.7 ↑ 87' 3 E. d. Silva 6.8 4 Vilar 7.0 6 P. Brey 6.1 18 Arthur Caíke 6.4 ↑ 87' 23 W. Pinheiro 7.5 ↑ 68' 8 E. Morelli 6.9 29 Thiaguinho 6.5 ↑ 88' 7 Kelvin 6.9 ↑ 68' 9 Hygor 6.0 1 H. Leite 8.4 22 Hayner 7.5 4 D. Mendes 7.4 3 T. Pagnussat 7.3 6 Higor 7.5 13 W. Formiga 6.3 ↑ 86' 15 D. D. Santos 7.2 70 Emerson Urso 6.6 ↑ 61' 21 H. Meritão 6.6 ↑ 70' 31 Dodô 6.6 ↑ 86' 9 Lincoln 6.3 ↑ 70'

Substitutes

12GJordan 31DPedrinho↓ 87'6.8 26DF. Vieira 21DJ. Alves 27DDarlan 2DJonathan 5ML. Maciel↓ 87'7.0 10MR. Gava↓ 88'6.8 30MZ. Hugo↓ 68'6.5 16MM. Sales↓ 68'6.4 20MYuri 17FG. Queiróz

Coach: Cláudio Tencati

Substitutes

29GDalberson 14DAnderson 99MJanderson↓ 86'7.9 5MJ. Vieira↓ 86'6.9 10MMarquinhos Gabriel↓ 70'6.6 33MB. Xavier 8MWillian Maranhão 11MR. Lima 20MNathan Camargo 17FEverton Galdino↓ 61'6.7 7FA. Luís↓ 70'6.7

Coach: Guto Ferreira

Top stats

62%Possession38%

1.24Expected goals (xG)0.21

15Total shots5

3Shots on target3

3Big chances0

12Corners1

Shots

8Shots off target1

4Blocked shots1

7Shots inside box2

8Shots outside box3

3Big chances missed0

-0.52Goals prevented0.63

Attack

15Touches in box4

61Final third entries50

3Offsides3

14Free kicks19

5Fouled in final third0

Passing

462Passes309

381Accurate passes224

34/67 (51%)Long balls25/67 (37%)

10/46 (22%)Crosses2/6 (33%)

27Throw-ins24

Duels

43Duels57

30/65 (46%)Ground duels35/65 (54%)

11/30 (37%)Aerial duels19/30 (63%)

4/11 (36%)Dribbles4/9 (44%)

7Dispossessed9

Defending

14Tackles14

71Tackles won79

9Interceptions7

16Clearances51

47Recoveries37

Discipline

19Fouls14

2Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

1Big saves1

5Goal kicks12

0Punches2

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Botafogo-SP 38%

31%

Vila Nova 31%

CornersOver 9.5 corners 60% · 1.62 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 71% · 1.30 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 62% · 1.10 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 80% · 1.18 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBTTS: No 54% · 1.22 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 31% · 2.32 @ 1xBet

1X2Vila Nova to win 31% · 3.58 @ 1xBet

Who winsBotafogo-SP to win (DNB) 56% · 1.70 @ Betano

1X2Botafogo-SP to win 38% · 2.94 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 64% · 2.60 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 50% · 1.81 @ Pinnacle

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.39

Botafogo-SP

2.98

Draw

2.90

Vila Nova FC

Double Chanceconsensus

1.33

Botafogo-SP or Draw

1.33

Botafogo-SP or Vila Nova FC

1.50

Draw or Vila Nova FC

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

2.00

Yes

1.70

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.75

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.60

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.06

Over 0.50

7.46

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.48

Over 1.50

2.59

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.50

Over 2.50

1.50

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

5.00

Over 3.50

1.17

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

10.75

Over 4.50

1.03

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.68

Botafogo-SP

2.05

Vila Nova FC

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.12

Over 7.50

4.46

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.30

Over 8.50

2.99

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.60

Over 9.50

2.23

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

1.96

Over 10.50

1.79

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.47

Over 11.50

1.48

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Under 3.5 goals

✓

80% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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