Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Londrina and Criciúma are stuck in the same muddy patch — both 2W-3L over five — so this is basically a dead-heat scrap for survival points.** 🔥 Neither side can afford to slip further, and the H2H favors Criciúma (8 wins vs 2), but that's ancient history when you're both fighting the drop.
Londrina just battered Ponte Preta 6-0 at home, a statement that their attack can explode on their patch. Criciúma, meanwhile, hammered Avaí but also shipped four to Goiás and two to Operário — inconsistency is their middle name.
Key storylines:
- **Londrina's home form is the wild card** — that 6-0 scoreline shows they can overwhelm; Herbert and William Pottker need to keep that tempo rolling
- **Criciúma's back line (Hermes, Martins, Fagundes) has been leaky**, especially in away gigs; they'll lean 3-at-the-back but it's not a guarantee against Londrina's pace
- **Tarik anchoring Londrina's midfield** versus Criciúma's Ronald-G. Lobo pairing could decide possession and transition play
Expected lineups:
- **Londrina**: Kozlinski, Heron, W. Reis, G. Lacerda, K. Leonardo, Tarik, G. Portuga, J. Vitor, L. Marques, William Pottker, Herbert
- **Criciúma**: Airton, M. Hermes, C. Martins, R. Fagundes, W. Lepo, Ronald, G. Lobo, F. Mateus, Diego Gonçalves, Waguininho, R. Otero
Prediction:
**Londrina 2–1 Criciúma.** Home edge + recent form gives the lean, but Criciúma's quality attack (Waguininho, Diego Gonçalves) keeps it tight.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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