Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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**Avaí are in freefall, and Londrina's here looking for upset practice.** This is a Serie B clash where form tells a brutal story—one team desperate, the other sniffing blood. 📉
Avaí's winless streak is getting embarrassing (0W in their last 5), but the home crowd at Ressacada could be a jolt. Londrina aren't exactly rolling either, but **2 wins in their last stretch** gives them psychological edge over a struggling host.
Key storylines:
- **Avaí's attack vs Londrina's recent defensive issues** — F. Vizeu and L. Gamalho need to finally finish chances, or the pressure builds dangerously
- **Londrina's counter threat** — William Pottker and the visiting midfield (C. Rodrigues, G. Portuga, J. Vitor) can exploit space if Avaí press too hard
- **Avaí's head-to-head edge means nothing right now** — 5 wins in the last 9 H2H looks great on paper, but form is king in a dogfight
Expected lineups:
- **Avaí**: B. Ferreira, Allyson, P. Vitor, Reynaldo, G. P. Simples, J. Lucas, L. Henrique, F. Vizeu, L. Gamalho
- **Londrina**: Kozlinski, Heron, G. Lacerda, W. Reis, K. Leonardo, William Pottker, Herbert
Prediction:
**Avaí 1–1 Londrina**
Slight lean to a draw—Avaí scrape one at home but can't seal it. Londrina's resilience holds up. 🤝
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.3%.
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