Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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**Criciúma rolls into town riding a hot streak — three wins in their last five, and they've got São Bernardo's number historically.** 🔥 This is a mid-table dust-up in Serie B where recent form absolutely matters.
São Bernardo have been patchy (2W-2D-1L), while Criciúma are clicking, especially on the road where they just demolished Londrina 2-0. The hosts are missing defensive depth with **M. Salustiano** and **R. Andrade** sidelined, which could leave gaps for **Criciúma's quick transitions**.
Key storylines:
- **Criciúma's away form** has them confident; they've won twice on the road in their last five
- **São Bernardo's injury list** in defence forces a shuffle — **A. Alves** will be busy behind a reshuffled backline
- **João Carlos** leads Criciúma's press and should find space against the hosts' thinned-out rearguard
Expected lineups:
- **São Bernardo**: A. Alves, Jemerson, Augusto, H. Maciel, Foguinho, M. Sergio, D. Miraíma, R. Ferreira, Pedrinho, F. Garcia, P. Vitor
- **Criciúma**: Airton, Luciano Castan, R. Fagundes, C. Martins, B. Alves, M. Hermes, Ronald, W. Lepo, F. Mateus, Cauê, João Carlos
Prediction:
**1-2 to Criciúma.** Visiting form + home injury woes give the visitors a slight edge. 🎯
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.3%.
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