Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Vila Nova rolls in hot; São Bernardo desperate to find rhythm at home.** This is a **clash of form** — the visitors have won three of their last five, while hosts are limping through (1W in five). 🔥
São Bernardo's injury troubles (M. Salustiano and R. Andrade both out) are piling on the pressure in round 35. Vila Nova, meanwhile, has momentum and just proved they can grind (draws vs Grêmio Novorizontino and Cuiabá don't lie). The H2H edge belongs to Vila Nova too.
Key storylines:
- **Vila Nova's attacking depth** with Janderson, Marquinhos Gabriel, and Everton Galdino has been clinical lately — can São Bernardo's makeshift backline hold?
- **Depth test for São Bernardo** — missing two key players, they'll lean on F. Garcia and P. Vitor to spark something dangerous in attack
- **Home court hopes** — Estádio Primeiro de Maio could be the spark, but form says otherwise
Expected lineups:
- **São Bernardo**: A. Alves, Jemerson, Augusto, Luizão, R. Ferreira, H. Maciel, D. Miraíma, Foguinho, Pedrinho, F. Garcia, P. Vitor
- **Vila Nova FC**: H. Leite, Higor, D. Mendes, J. Costa, Hayner, J. Vieira, D. D. Santos, Janderson, Marquinhos Gabriel, Everton Galdino, A. Luís
Prediction:
**Vila Nova 2–1 São Bernardo** — visitors' form and experience squeeze three points from a struggling home side. 📍
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.3%.
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