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Camilo Speranza
Ilves
FC Lahti
Ilves
4-3-3 · 4-3-3
FC Lahti
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 2 clips
Match events
38'
⚽
J. Kanga1–0
Half-time · 1–0
45'+1
Y. Raap
46'
🔁
A. Belabid ◂ M. Sarr
46'
🔁
J. Kilo ◂ Y. Raap
59'
🔁
D. Heikkinen ◂ T. Montiel
59'
🔁
E. Andersson ◂ R. Yapi
74'
🔁
A. Bamba ◂ O. Multala
74'
🔁
T. Miettunen ◂ T. Hytönen
74'
🔁
O. Pettersson ◂ M. Rale
77'
🔁
J. Ojanen ◂ M. Ferreira
80'
N. G. Dantas
80'
A. Belabid
83'
🔁
A. Lindholm ◂ N. Barbosa
85'
🔁
L. Ala-Myllymäki ◂ J. Kanga
Full-time · 1–0
Coaches
Camilo SperanzaGonçalo Pereira 
Recent form
IlvesLAStjarnan Garðabær0-1
WATurun Palloseura3-1
WHDifferdange FC 033-1
DADifferdange FC 030-0
LAFF Jaro1-2
FC LahtiWAIFK Mariehamn2-0
WHHJK2-0
WHIF Gnistan1-0
DAAC Oulu1-1
DHTurun Palloseura0-0
Where to watch
OneFootball Deutschland
Match facts
Stadium
Tammela Stadium
City
Tampere
Referee
Antti Munukka
Kickoff
26 Jul, 12:00 UTC
Competition
Veikkausliiga
Highlights & clips
Ilves
4-3-3 · 4-3-3
FC Lahti
12
F. Krkalić
13
K. Wallius
24
V. Kumpu
5
S. Väisänen
4
O. Pettersson
↑ 74'
16
T. Miettunen
↑ 74'
28
J. Kilo
↑ 46'
14
A. Popovitch
30
J. Kanga
15
L. Ala-Myllymäki
↑ 85'
17
S. Baranov
31
O. Maukonen
7
D. Heikkinen
↑ 59'
4
J. Müller
5
N. G. Dantas
3
R. Sans
14
E. Andersson
↑ 59'
18
Y. Cassubie
10
O. Koskinen
17
A. Belabid
↑ 46'
9
A. Lindholm
↑ 83'
20
J. Ojanen
↑ 77'
Substitutes
1GO. Virtanen
6DY. Raap↓ 46'
3DM. Rale↓ 74'
25DS. Sebastian
19DB. A. Goudouss
22MO. Multala↓ 74'
20MO. Tiitinen
9FT. Hytönen↓ 74'
10FR. Riski
Coach: Camilo Speranza
Substitutes
12GA. Hakala
27DR. Yapi↓ 59'
25DT. Inkinen
6DV. Vehkonen
8MT. Montiel↓ 59'
28MA. Kabashi
77FM. Sarr↓ 46'
11FM. Ferreira↓ 77'
19FN. Barbosa↓ 83'
Coach: Gonçalo Pereira
Top stats
45%Possession55%
1.89Expected goals (xG)1.51
8Total shots11
3Shots on target3
8Corners8
Shots
4Shots off target4
1Blocked shots4
6Shots inside box6
2Shots outside box5
0Hit woodwork0
Attack
18Touches in box19
0Offsides3
2Free kicks1
Passing
484Passes571
405Accurate passes489
23/40 (57%)Long balls21/40 (52%)
1/12 (8%)Crosses3/10 (30%)
14Throw-ins24
Duels
51Duels48
53/107 (50%)Ground duels54/108 (50%)
13/22 (59%)Aerial duels9/22 (41%)
5/13 (38%)Dribbles8/21 (38%)
8Dispossessed1
Defending
2Tackles1
19Interceptions13
23Clearances17
Discipline
5Fouls11
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
10Goal kicks8
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 23 bookmakers
BTTSBoth teams to score 61% · 1.61 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 9.5 corners 52% · 1.83 @ 888Sport
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 57% · 1.70 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 63% · 1.50 @ 888Sport
1X2Lahti to win 35% · 2.66 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 78% · 1.23 @ Unibet
1X2Draw 26% · 3.63 @ Pinnacle
1X2Ilves to win 38% · 2.65 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 59% · 1.61 @ Betway
Who winsIlves to win (DNB) 52% · 1.93 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 64% · 1.50 @ Unibet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.41
Ilves ▼
3.28
Draw ▼
2.45
FC Lahti ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.49
Ilves or Draw ▲
1.28
Ilves or FC Lahti ▲
1.47
Draw or FC Lahti ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.54
Yes ▲
2.34
No ▼
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.03
Over 0.50
12.48
Under 0.50 ▲
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.20
Over 1.50 ▼
4.40
Under 1.50 ▲
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.67
Over 2.50 ▼
2.18
Under 2.50 ▲
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.63
Over 3.50 ▼
1.47
Under 3.50 ▲
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.65
Over 4.50 ▲
1.18
Under 4.50 ▼
Draw No Betconsensus
1.85
Ilves ▲
1.87
FC Lahti ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.05
Over 5.50 ▼
9.50
Under 5.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.11
Over 6.50 ▼
5.20
Under 6.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.24
Over 7.50 ▼
3.45
Under 7.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.46
Over 8.50 ▼
2.48
Under 8.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.79
Over 9.50 ▲
1.90
Under 9.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.26
Over 10.50 ▼
1.55
Under 10.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
3.05
Over 11.50 ▼
1.31
Under 11.50 ▼
1.7 – 1.3Expected goals
1-1Most likely score
~9Expected corners
No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.
Every market recommended rows highlighted
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to scoreBTTS | 61% | 61% | 1.53 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 9.5 cornersCorners | 52% | 52% | 1.78 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 2.5 goalsGoals | 57% | 57% | 1.65 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 63% | 63% | 1.47 | Overpriced | medium |
| Lahti to win1X2 | 35% | 35% | 2.64 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 78% | 78% | 1.19 | Overpriced | high |
| Draw1X2 | 26% | 26% | 3.51 | Overpriced | low |
| Ilves to win1X2 | 38% | 38% | 2.43 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 10.5 cornersCorners | 59% | 59% | 1.56 | Overpriced | low |
| Ilves to win (DNB)Who wins | 52% | 52% | 1.79 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 64% | 64% | 1.45 | Overpriced | medium |
Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: Ilves to win (DNB) — we say 63%, they say 52%.
Probability vs league average
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 75% | +3% | Yes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 47% | +10% | Yes |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 26% | +10% | Yes |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 52% | +9% | Yes |
| Home win | 38% | 49% | -11% | No |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | -2% | No |
| Away win | 35% | 23% | +12% | Yes |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
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