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Alex Covelo
Monterey Bay FC
Orange County SC
Monterey Bay FC
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2
Orange County SC
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
27'
T. Brewitt · Foul
39'
I. Paul · Foul
Half-time · 0–0
48'
⚽
T. Brewitt0–1
51'
⚽
N. Gordon0–2
56'
🔁
B. Joseph ◂ R. Nakamura
56'
🔁
W. Leggett ◂ A. Saidi
59'
G. Tubbs · Foul
74'
🔁
S. Ritchie ◂ F. Barajas
74'
🔁
J. Garcia ◂ Q. Elliot
79'
🔁
E. Zubak ◂ L. MacKinnon
79'
🔁
J. Martinez ◂ E. Solis
86'
🔁
R. Doghman ◂ O. Sylla
88'
⚽
I. Paul · assist N. Gordon1–2
Full-time · 1–2
90'+3
🔁
M. War ◂ C. Hegardt
90'+3
🔁
K. Egwu ◂ N. Ross
Coaches
Alex CoveloDanny Stone 
Recent form
Monterey Bay FCLAPhoenix Rising FC2-3
DASan Antonio FC0-0
WHEl Paso Locomotive FC1-0
LAFC Tulsa0-2
WHSC Jacksonville2-1
Orange County SCDAHartford Athletic2-2
DARhode Island FC1-1
WAMiami FC4-2
WALas Vegas Lights3-2
DANew Mexico United1-1
Where to watch
Betano
Match facts
Stadium
Cardinale Stadium
City
Monterey
Kickoff
26 Jul, 02:00 UTC
Competition
USL Championship
Highlights & clips
Monterey Bay FC
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2
Orange County SC
98
J. Jackson
6.3
22
J. Garcia
7.3
↑ 74'
5
N. Gordon
7.0
32
Z. Farnsworth
7.2
17
O. Glasgow
6.0
25
K. Egwu
↑ 90'
18
B. Joseph
6.8
↑ 56'
3
S. Ritchie
6.9
↑ 74'
88
S. Lletget
6.9
20
I. Paul
7.2
11
W. Leggett
7.1
↑ 56'
1
A. Rando
6.6
32
N. Ciotta
7.0
5
T. Brewitt
8.0
6
G. Tubbs
6.1
4
N. Benalcazar
6.7
26
J. Martinez
6.5
↑ 79'
9
E. Zubak
6.7
↑ 79'
27
S. Kelly
6.9
21
M. War
↑ 90'
23
R. Doghman
6.3
↑ 86'
12
Y. Bazini
7.2
Substitutes
31GC. Dalton
47DQ. Elliot↓ 74'6.2
4MN. Ross↓ 90'6.8
14MR. Nakamura↓ 56'6.3
15MF. Barajas↓ 74'6.2
30MA. Villasana
24FA. Saidi↓ 56'6.2
Coach: Alex Covelo
Substitutes
31GT. Kadono
28DF. O'Brien
8MO. Sylla↓ 86'7.2
10MC. Hegardt↓ 90'6.8
25ME. Solis↓ 79'6.6
17MJ. Johnson
11FL. MacKinnon↓ 79'6.6
30FJ. Castro
22FA. Marinch
Coach: Danny Stone
Top stats
59%Possession41%
1.17Expected goals (xG, estimated)1.61
16Total shots6
5Shots on target3
1Big chances3
7Corners1
Shots
8Shots off target1
3Blocked shots2
10Shots inside box5
6Shots outside box1
1Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored1
0Big chances missed2
Attack
28Touches in box13
50Final third entries27
3Offsides1
14Free kicks17
4Fouled in final third3
Passing
481Passes349
423Accurate passes267
17/40 (43%)Long balls31/65 (48%)
8/27 (30%)Crosses1/9 (11%)
21Throw-ins19
Duels
46Duels54
29/71 (41%)Ground duels41/70 (59%)
19/33 (58%)Aerial duels14/31 (45%)
5/10 (50%)Dribbles7/13 (54%)
12Dispossessed5
Defending
10Tackles16
90Tackles won75
10Interceptions7
16Clearances18
39Recoveries33
Discipline
17Fouls14
1Yellow cards2
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
7Goal kicks13
2Punches0
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 14 bookmakers
BTTSBoth teams to score 54% · 1.73 @ Pinnacle
1X2Draw 27% · 3.54 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 68% · 1.40 @ Betway
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 56% · 1.66 @ Pinnacle
Who winsMonterey Bay to win (DNB) 59% · 1.60 @ Betano
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 50% · 1.91 @ Pinnacle
1X2Orange County SC to win 30% · 3.25 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 71% · 1.36 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 73% · 1.29 @ Pinnacle
1X2Monterey Bay to win 43% · 2.20 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 55% · 1.73 @ Betway
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.05
Monterey Bay FC ▼
3.17
Draw ▼
3.02
Orange County SC ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.33
Monterey Bay FC or Draw ▲
1.28
Monterey Bay FC or Orange County SC ▼
1.59
Draw or Orange County SC ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.69
Yes ▼
2.05
No ▲
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.04
Over 0.50
9.86
Under 0.50 ▲
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.26
Over 1.50 ▼
3.46
Under 1.50 ▲
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.80
Over 2.50 ▲
1.83
Under 2.50 ▲
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.08
Over 3.50 ▼
1.32
Under 3.50 ▲
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.90
Over 4.50 ▲
1.11
Under 4.50 ▲
Draw No Betconsensus
1.39
Monterey Bay FC ▼
2.25
Orange County SC ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.17
Over 6.50 ▲
4.00
Under 6.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.39
Over 7.50 ▼
2.66
Under 7.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.71
Over 8.50 ▲
2.01
Under 8.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
2.14
Over 9.50 ▲
1.62
Under 9.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.75
Over 10.50 ▼
1.36
Under 10.50 ▲
Corners 1X2consensus
1.75
Monterey Bay FC ▲
8.20
Draw ▼
2.36
Orange County SC ▼
Odd / Even Goalsconsensus
1.87
Odd ▼
1.84
Even ▲
1.2 – 1.5Expected goals
1-1Most likely score
~9Expected corners
No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.
Every market recommended rows highlighted
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to scoreBTTS | 54% | 54% | 1.69 | Overpriced | low |
| Draw1X2 | 27% | 27% | 3.34 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 10.5 cornersCorners | 68% | 69% | 1.32 | Overpriced | medium |
| Under 9.5 cornersCorners | 56% | 57% | 1.62 | Overpriced | low |
| Monterey Bay to win (DNB)Who wins | 59% | 59% | 1.57 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 2.5 goalsGoals | 50% | 50% | 1.86 | Overpriced | low |
| Orange County SC to win1X2 | 30% | 30% | 3.06 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 71% | 70% | 1.31 | Overpriced | high |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 73% | 73% | 1.27 | Overpriced | high |
| Monterey Bay to win1X2 | 43% | 43% | 2.11 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 55% | 54% | 1.7 | Overpriced | low |
Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: Orange County SC to win (DNB) — we say 59%, they say 41%.
Probability vs league average
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 74% | -1% | No |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0% | No |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 32% | -3% | No |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 55% | -1% | No |
| Home win | 43% | 44% | -1% | No |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | -2% | No |
| Away win | 30% | 27% | +3% | Yes |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
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