Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Orange County's looking to shake off the rust at home** — the Lights roll in off back-to-back losses, and this feels like a reset moment for the hosts. 🔥
Orange County have been stuttering (2 draws, 3 losses in their last 5), but they've got a crucial home-field edge and a dominant H2H record. Las Vegas have won 2 of 5 recently, but losses to Charleston and Lexington suggest they're leaking goals.
Key storylines:
- **Orange County's defense** needs to tighten up after that 5-1 shellacking to FC Tulsa — Brewitt, Tubbs, and the backline can't repeat that nightmare.
- **Las Vegas' vulnerability away from Vegas** — 0-2 vs Lexington shows they struggle on the road; Sessock and the defensive shape will be tested early.
- **Home advantage & history** — Orange County are 12-5-5 in the H2H, and championship soccer at their ground is a tough draw for visiting sides.
Expected lineups:
- **Orange County SC**: A. Rando, R. Doghman, T. Brewitt, G. Tubbs, N. Ciotta, N. Benalcazar, S. Kelly, B. Cambridge
- **Las Vegas Lights**: C. Lanphier, T. Antonoglou, A. Guillén, B. Ofeimu, N. Sessock, C. Locker, G. Probo, J. Rodriguez
Prediction:
**Orange County 2–1 Las Vegas**. The hosts' league record and home form give them a slight edge, despite recent wobbles.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.5%.
Report a data issue
Spotted something wrong on this match? Tell us what and we'll fix it.