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Louisville City FC
Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC
Hartford Athletic
Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC
S. Bird
Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC
Hartford Athletic
Brendan Burke
Hartford Athletic
Louisville City FC
Hartford Athletic
3-1-4-2 · 3-4-3
Louisville City FC
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Hartford Athletic 2-2 Louisville City FC.
90+4'
Louisville City FC
Offside, Louisville City FC.
90+1'
Attempt blocked. M. Ngalina (Hartford Athletic), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.07.
90+1'
Hartford Athletic
Corner, Hartford Athletic.
90'
4 minutes of added time.
90'
Hartford Athletic
Corner, Hartford Athletic.
89'
Hartford Athletic
Corner, Hartford Athletic.
80'
Hartford Athletic
Corner, Hartford Athletic.
77'
Hartford Athletic
Offside, Hartford Athletic.
76'
Attempt missed. M. Ngalina (Hartford Athletic), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.
75'
Hartford Athletic
Corner, Hartford Athletic.
73'
Goal! Hartford Athletic 2-2 Louisville City FC. M. Ngalina (Hartford Athletic) converts the penalty.
68'
Louisville City FC
Corner, Louisville City FC.
66'
Attempt blocked. S. Anaku (Hartford Athletic), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.05.
64'
Louisville City FC
Corner, Louisville City FC.
55'
Hartford Athletic
Corner, Hartford Athletic.
53'
Goal! Hartford Athletic 1-2 Louisville City FC. Q. Huerman (Louisville City FC) converts the penalty.
48'
Goal! Hartford Athletic 1-1 Louisville City FC. J. Morris (Louisville City FC) scores, assisted by T. Davila.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Hartford Athletic 1-0 Louisville City FC.
45+1'
Louisville City FC
Corner, Louisville City FC.
45+1'
Attempt blocked. B. Niang (Louisville City FC), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.
45+1'
Louisville City FC
Corner, Louisville City FC.
45'
2 minutes of added time.
45'
Louisville City FC
Corner, Louisville City FC.
45'
S. Bird
Yellow card for S. Bird (Louisville City FC) for argument.
43'
Attempt blocked. A. D. Pe (Hartford Athletic), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.06.
43'
Attempt saved. B. Makangila (Hartford Athletic), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.
43'
Hartford Athletic
Corner, Hartford Athletic.
39'
Hartford Athletic
Offside, Hartford Athletic.
38'
Attempt missed. A. D. Pe (Hartford Athletic), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.
32'
Louisville City FC
Corner, Louisville City FC.
22'
Attempt missed. T. Davila (Louisville City FC), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.
18'
Louisville City FC
Corner, Louisville City FC.
11'
Goal! Hartford Athletic 1-0 Louisville City FC. A. Williams (Hartford Athletic) converts the penalty.
9'
Hartford Athletic
Corner, Hartford Athletic.
1'
Kick-off: Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City FC.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
701 EUR
Home
2.82 · implied 35.5%
59.1%
+23.6 vs price
Away
2.64 · implied 37.9%
33.1%
-4.7 vs price
Draw
3.75 · implied 26.7%
11.7%
-15.0 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
513 EUR
Under
2.16 · implied 46.3%
51.4%
+5.1 vs price
Over
1.86 · implied 53.8%
48.3%
-5.5 vs price
9 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
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Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
11'
⚽
A. Williams (pen)1–0
37'
A. Dia · Foul
42'
B. Niang · Foul
Half-time · 1–0
45'
S. Bird · Argument
46'
🔁
Z. Duncan ◂ B. Niang
46'
🔁
J. Morris ◂ A. Dia
48'
⚽
J. Morris · assist T. Davila1–1
50'
B. Fischer · Foul
51'
B. Fischer · Foul
53'
⚽
Q. Huerman (pen)1–2
56'
🔁
B. Njie ◂ B. Coffey
59'
B. Njie · Foul
70'
🔁
A. A. Obalola ◂ S. Anaku
70'
🔁
M. Ngalina ◂ A. Williams
70'
🔁
M. Adedokun ◂ B. Makangila
73'
⚽
M. Ngalina (pen)2–2
74'
🔁
J. Wilson ◂ Q. Huerman
79'
K. Adams · Foul
Full-time · 2–2
90'+2
J. Moreira · Foul
Coaches
Brendan BurkeSimon Bird 
Recent form
Hartford AthleticDALas Vegas Lights1-1
WHSC Jacksonville2-0
WHFC Tampa Bay Rowdies3-1
DADetroit City FC1-1
WACharleston Battery2-1
Louisville City FCWHLoudoun United FC2-1
LHEl Paso Locomotive FC1-2
DARhode Island Union1-1
DHDetroit City FC0-0
LAIndy Eleven1-2
About this match
**Hartford rides a hot streak at home, but Louisville's pedigree looms large in this Round 1 clash.** The Athletic are unbeaten in five with three wins; City, though, own a brutal head-to-head edge and know how to spoil the party. 🔥
Hartford's attack has teeth — **M. Ngalina** and **M. Adedokun** just dismantled Tampa Bay. Louisville's form is wobbly (1W-2D-2L), but history says they show up in this fixture; **R. Serrano** and **C. Donovan** can shift momentum fast. The script feels like classic upset bait, except the stats don't quite buy it.
Key storylines:
- **Hartford's home fortress** meets **Louisville's historic dominance** — the Athletic haven't lost in five, but City own the last-12 head-to-head storyline badly
- **M. Ngalina and M. Adedokun's firepower** up top for Hartford vs **Louisville's backline** anchored by **K. Adams**
- Form vs pedigree — Hartford's upswing clashes with City's proven ability to grind results in this fixture
Expected lineups:
- **Hartford Athletic**: G. Ngnepi, E. Samadiya, J. Scarlett, B. Fischer, M. Ngalina, M. Adedokun, C. Hadjipaschalis, G. Flynn
- **Louisville City FC**: H. Fauroux, K. Adams, S. Totsch, B. Dayes, R. Serrano, C. Donovan, T. Davila, E. Davila
Prediction:
**1-1 draw.** Lean slight edge to Louisville's historical grip on this matchup, but Hartford's home form forces a stalemate. ⚽
Where to watch
Betano
Match facts
Stadium
Dillon Stadium
City
Hartford
Kickoff
25 Sep, 23:00 UTC
Competition
USL Championship
Highlights & clips
Hartford Athletic
3-1-4-2 · 3-4-3
Louisville City FC
77
G. Ngnepi
6.9
15
A. D. Pe
6.2
4
J. Scarlett
6.4
25
B. Fischer
5.0
11
M. Ngalina
7.1
↑ 70'
2
S. Anderson
6.9
8
J. Moreira
6.2
5
B. Njie
6.8
↑ 56'
19
E. Samadiya
6.7
7
M. Adedokun
6.8
↑ 70'
81
A. A. Obalola
6.6
↑ 70'
29
R. Schewe
5.8
2
A. McFadden
7.2
31
K. Lambert
6.9
32
K. Adams
6.5
15
M. Perez
7.0
8
T. Davila
8.0
3
J. Morris
7.8
↑ 46'
6
Z. Duncan
6.9
↑ 46'
25
J. Wilson
6.5
↑ 74'
9
C. Donovan
6.5
7
R. Serrano
6.9
Substitutes
1GE. Carvalho
3DM. Real
47DO. Pearman
6MB. Makangila↓ 70'6.7
16MB. Coffey↓ 56'6.5
18MC. Hadjipaschalis
9FA. Williams↓ 70'7.0
17FS. Anaku↓ 70'6.3
27FS. Gordon
Coach: Brendan Burke
Substitutes
91GC. Haus
13MA. Dia↓ 46'6.7
19MB. Niang↓ 46'6.2
27ME. Davila
21FQ. Huerman↓ 74'6.4
14FT. Showunmi
23FS. Gleadle
47FM. Akale
99C. Conley
Coach: Simon Bird
Top stats
38%Possession62%
2.3Expected goals (xG)1.77
13Total shots11
4Shots on target5
3Big chances2
8Corners7
Shots
4Shots off target2
5Blocked shots4
7Shots inside box9
6Shots outside box2
2Big chances scored1
1Big chances missed1
Attack
19Touches in box29
48Final third entries83
2Offsides1
12Free kicks11
3Fouled in final third3
Passing
257Passes436
174Accurate passes350
24/71 (34%)Long balls37/62 (60%)
3/26 (12%)Crosses8/26 (31%)
18Throw-ins24
Duels
42Duels58
23/48 (48%)Ground duels25/48 (52%)
16/44 (36%)Aerial duels28/44 (64%)
2/5 (40%)Dribbles3/7 (43%)
7Dispossessed5
Defending
9Tackles10
78Tackles won70
8Interceptions8
30Clearances25
39Recoveries37
Discipline
12Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards1
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
0Big saves1
6Goal kicks7
0Punches2
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers
CornersOver 9.5 corners 53% · 1.79 @ 1xBet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 65% · 1.47 @ Pinnacle
1X2Louisville City to win 39% · 2.72 @ 1xBet
BTTSBoth teams to score 58% · 3.00 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 54% · 4.15 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 77% · 1.98 @ 1xBet
1X2Draw 26% · 2.60 @ Bet365
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 68% · 1.44 @ betfair
Who winsHartford Athletic to win (DNB) 53% · 1.95 @ Betsson
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 58% · 1.60 @ Pinnacle
1X2Hartford Athletic to win 35% · 3.10 @ William Hill
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.55
Hartford Athletic
3.40
Draw
2.36
Louisville City FC
Double Chanceconsensus
1.48
Hartford Athletic or Draw
1.25
Hartford Athletic or Louisville City FC
1.44
Draw or Louisville City FC
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.59
Yes
2.20
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
11.95
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.20
Over 1.50
4.08
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.69
Over 2.50
2.05
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.81
Over 3.50
1.40
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.40
Over 4.50
1.14
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.91
Hartford Athletic
1.80
Louisville City FC
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.22
Over 7.50
3.50
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.46
Over 8.50
2.50
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.79
Over 9.50
1.94
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.25
Over 10.50
1.58
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
3.00
Over 11.50
1.30
Under 11.50
1X2 (1st Half)consensus
3.23
Hartford Athletic
2.27
Draw
2.91
Louisville City FC
1X2 (2nd Half)consensus
3.00
Hartford Athletic
2.50
Draw
2.50
Louisville City FC
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.3%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.3%.
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