Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Marseille rolls into this one as heavy favorites, and honestly, the form gap makes it pretty clear.** OM's sitting on three wins in their last five, while Paris FC are scrappy but inconsistent — they've drawn twice and lost twice in the same stretch. 🔵
Form tells the story: Marseille demolished Strasbourg 4-0 at home, Paris FC just beat Nice 3-0 but got battered by Angers 2-3 away. H2H doesn't even need footnotes — OM have dominated this fixture, winning four of the last eight.
Key storylines:
- **Marseille's firepower vs Paris FC's fragile defense** — with **Gouiri**, **Harit**, and **Weah** all fit, OM's attacking third should run rampant
- **Paris FC's injury crisis** keeps piling up (Ikoné, Otávio, Mbemba all out), making their already thin midfield even thinner
- **Home advantage at the Vélodrome** — OM typically thrive here and Paris FC are vulnerable on the road
Expected lineups:
- **Olympique de Marseille**: De Lange, Emerson, Egan-Riley, Aguerd, Weah, Højbjerg, Abdelli, Mmadi, Harit, Abdallah, Gouiri
- **Paris FC**: Trapp, Chergui, Coppola, Mbow, Traoré, Lees Melou, Matondo, Simon, Kebbal, Pagis, Sinayoko
Prediction:
**Marseille 3–0 Paris FC.** OM should cruise here — too much quality, too few holes to exploit.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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