Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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Alexandre Dujeux
Lorient
Toulouse**Lorient's bounce-back story meets a Toulouse side desperately searching for wins.** The hosts are riding a rare victory, while TFC has dropped their last four matches — this is the kind of home fixture Lorient *needs* to stack wins. 🔥
Lorient showed grit with a win at Lens and a clean sheet away at Nice, suggesting defensive solidity is back. Toulouse, meanwhile, has managed just one draw in five and shipped goals for fun — they're fragile right now.
Key storylines:
- **Lorient's defense** anchored by M. Talbi and N. Adjei will face a Toulouse attack that's misfiring badly
- **D. Sylla** up front for the hosts has momentum after the Lens victory and should have space against a leaky TFC backline
- **Toulouse's crisis** deepens without A. Francis; the midfield of I. Diallo and A. Vossah needs to shore up or this gets ugly
Expected lineups:
- **Lorient**: Y. Mvogo, M. Talbi, N. Adjei, A. Kouassi, J. Makengo, N. Cadiou, I. S. Jensen, S. Faye, G. Bernardeau, D. Sylla
- **Toulouse**: M. Niflore, R. Nicolaisen, C. Tapé, M. McKenzie, C. Cásseres Jr., I. Diallo, A. Vossah, T. Jørgensen, S. Oppong, J. Russell Rowe
Prediction:
**Lorient 2-0 Toulouse**
Home form and momentum give the hosts a clear edge over a sinking Toulouse side. 📍
Lorient
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1
Toulouse
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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