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Jens Askou
Toulouse
Le Havre
Toulouse
4-4-2 · 3-4-2-1
Le Havre
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
585181 EUR · live
Home
1.01 · implied 99.0%
83.1%
-15.9 vs price
Draw
100.0 · implied 1.0%
12.7%
+11.7 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
4.2%
+4.1 vs price
Half time
1433 EUR · live
Home
8.4 · implied 11.9%
37.1%
+25.2 vs price
Draw
1.36 · implied 73.5%
34.8%
-38.8 vs price
Away
11.5 · implied 8.7%
28.1%
+19.4 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
33795 EUR · live
Over
1.58 · implied 63.3%
62.2%
-1.1 vs price
Under
2.72 · implied 36.8%
37.8%
+1.0 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
5180 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
95.1%
-3.9 vs price
Over
200.0 · implied 0.5%
4.9%
+4.4 vs price
13 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
34'
C. Tapé · Foul
Half-time · 0–0
49'
⚽
C. Tengstedt (pen)1–0
51'
⚽
C. Tengstedt · assist T. Jørgensen2–0
58'
N. Sigur · Foul
69'
🔁
S. Nakamura ◂ D. Ouziad
69'
🔁
E. Koffi ◂ R. Fofana
70'
🔁
J. Mwanga ◂ V. Sasso
71'
⚽
J. Maja · assist S. Nakamura2–1
72'
🔁
A. Vossah ◂ R. Messali
72'
🔁
S. Oppong ◂ I. Azizi
72'
🔁
S. Hidalgo ◂ C. Tengstedt
74'
S. Koumbassa · Foul
79'
⚽
T. Jørgensen · assist C. Cásseres Jr.3–1
81'
S. Nakamura · Foul
82'
🔁
R. Ndiaye ◂ A. Richardson
82'
🔁
I. Bouneb ◂ J. Maja
88'
⚽
A. Samatta3–2
Full-time · 3–2
Coaches
Jens AskouDidier Digard 
Recent form
ToulouseDALorient2-2
LHLille0-1
DAStade Brestois2-2
LHOlympique Lyonnais0-2
LHHamburger SV1-2
Le HavreDHAngers0-0
LHStade Brestois1-2
DAOlympique Lyonnais1-1
LHAS Monaco0-1
WALe Mans1-0
About this match
**Toulouse's stuttering form meets Le Havre's grit** — both sides are scrapping for rhythm in early-season Ligue 1, but the home-ground edge tilts toward TFC. 🔴
Toulouse can't find consistency (0W in five), leaking goals regularly while drawing too many. Le Havre, however, are slightly better organized on paper despite their own patchy run. The H2H heavily favors the hosts: **13 wins to Le Havre's 5** across their last 28 meetings.
Key storylines:
- **Toulouse's attacking duo** of Russell Rowe and Hidalgo need to click; they've been starved of service but face a Le Havre defense missing key bodies
- **Le Havre's Achilles shortage** — Mambimbi and Mpasi Nzau out — weakens their squad depth at a critical moment
- Home mentality: TFC's stadium record historically favors them, and they're desperate to snap the drought 🎯
Expected lineups:
- **Toulouse**: Niflore, McKenzie, Nicolaisen, Diallo, Schmidt, Cásseres Jr., Jørgensen, Russell Rowe, Oppong, Hidalgo
- **Le Havre**: Gallon, Seko, Touba, Pembele, Ndiaye, Richardson, Ebonog, Mizuta, Samatta, Maja
Prediction:
**Toulouse 2–1 Le Havre**
Toulouse's home advantage and superior H2H edge them into a narrow win, though Le Havre will scrap hard. Lean TFC to end their winless streak.
Where to watch
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Disney+ Premium Chile
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Match facts
Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse
City
Toulouse
Kickoff
19 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Competition
Ligue 1
Highlights & clips
Toulouse
4-4-2 · 3-4-2-1
Le Havre
16
G. Restes
8.0
11
S. Oppong
7.0
↑ 72'
5
S. Koumbassa
6.1
3
M. McKenzie
7.5
12
C. Tapé
6.2
8
T. Jørgensen
9.5
14
N. Sigur
6.8
23
C. Cásseres Jr.
7.1
6
A. Vossah
6.6
↑ 72'
13
J. Russell Rowe
6.4
9
S. Hidalgo
7.0
↑ 72'
93
G. Gallon
6.4
6
J. Mwanga
6.6
↑ 70'
15
A. Seko
6.2
5
A. Touba
5.8
27
E. Koffi
6.5
↑ 69'
26
S. Ebonog
6.3
14
R. Ndiaye
6.5
↑ 82'
12
E. Jelert
6.9
30
S. Nakamura
7.0
↑ 69'
25
A. Samatta
7.3
44
I. Bouneb
6.3
↑ 82'
Substitutes
60GM. Niflore
19DD. Odogu
22MR. Messali↓ 72'7.3
18MM. Amougou
15MA. Dønnum
31MN. Schmidt
20FC. Tengstedt↓ 72'8.3
37FI. Azizi↓ 72'6.9
7FJ. Vignolo
Coach: Jens Askou
Substitutes
16GA. Bodart
23DV. Sasso↓ 70'7.0
20DD. Ouziad↓ 69'6.8
97DM. N'Diaye
7MA. Richardson↓ 82'6.3
78MD. N. Mosengo
17MK. Mizuta
9FJ. Maja↓ 82'7.4
38FR. Fofana↓ 69'7.0
Coach: Didier Digard
Top stats
53%Possession47%
1.95Expected goals (xG)2.34
14Total shots18
5Shots on target7
6Big chances4
6Corners7
Shots
4Shots off target6
5Blocked shots5
10Shots inside box12
4Shots outside box6
3Big chances scored2
3Big chances missed2
-0.32Goals prevented-0.97
Attack
29Touches in box26
43Final third entries38
3Offsides1
14Free kicks17
2Fouled in final third3
Passing
477Passes406
409Accurate passes354
28/46 (61%)Long balls22/40 (55%)
1/17 (6%)Crosses8/26 (31%)
12Throw-ins18
Duels
58Duels42
52/88 (59%)Ground duels36/88 (41%)
13/24 (54%)Aerial duels11/24 (46%)
18/25 (72%)Dribbles5/15 (33%)
7Dispossessed9
Defending
19Tackles14
68Tackles won43
5Interceptions15
21Clearances21
44Recoveries36
Discipline
17Fouls15
3Yellow cards1
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
5Goal kicks8
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers
Who winsToulouse to win (DNB) 70% · 1.30 @ 888Sport
1X2Toulouse to win 55% · 2.10 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 56% · 4.00 @ William Hill
BTTSBoth teams to score 56% · 3.10 @ William Hill
CornersOver 8.5 corners 59% · 1.45 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 77% · 1.95 @ William Hill
1X2Draw 24% · 2.74 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 65% · 1.61 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 53% · 2.00 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 68% · 1.47 @ Pinnacle
1X2Le Havre to win 20% · 4.45 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.70
Toulouse
3.95
Draw
4.68
Le Havre
Double Chanceconsensus
1.19
Toulouse or Draw
1.23
Toulouse or Le Havre
2.10
Draw or Le Havre
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.63
Yes
2.19
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
3.10
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
8.00
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
12.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.20
Over 1.50
4.05
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.69
Over 2.50
2.18
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.77
Over 3.50
1.43
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.38
Over 4.50
1.13
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.29
Toulouse
3.40
Le Havre
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.21
Over 7.50
3.25
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.43
Over 8.50
2.56
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.80
Over 9.50
1.96
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.20
Over 10.50
1.60
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.72
Over 11.50
1.34
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.5%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.5%.
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