Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Le Havre's offense woke up with that 6-1 demolition, but can they keep the momentum against a sharper Auxerre outfit?** Both teams are dealing with injury carnage, so this could turn into a messier affair than anyone wants. 🏟️
Le Havre scraped past minnows Boulogne but got thumped by Lille and Toulouse in the rounds before. Auxerre, meanwhile, mixed a heavy loss to Rennes with wins over Brestois and Clermont—they've got more rhythm right now. The head-to-head is basically even over the long haul (Auxerre +5 edge historically), but form favors the visitors.
Key storylines:
- **S. Nakamura and J. Maja** need to replicate that attacking chemistry from the Boulogne blitz if Le Havre's staying in this
- **Auxerre's midfield** (K. Danois and A. Piedfort anchoring) should control tempo with Le Havre's injuries piling up
- Both squads are **missing key defenders**—Le Havre without A. Seko, Auxerre without A. Dioussé—so set pieces could be chaos ⚽
Expected lineups:
- **Le Havre**: G. Gallon, V. Sasso, A. Touba, D. Ouziad, A. Richardson, R. Ndiaye, S. Ebonog, J. Mwanga, J. Maja, A. Samatta, S. Nakamura
- **Auxerre**: M. Diop, F. Oppegård, C. Akpa, C. Makosso, L. Sy, K. Danois, A. Piedfort, A. Zossou, N. Ahamada, R. Faivre, D. Namaso
Prediction:
**Auxerre 2–1 Le Havre.** Auxerre's recent form and deeper squad give them a slight edge, even with injuries.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
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