Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 16, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse.

90+7'

H. Diallo

Attempt missed. H. Diallo (Le Mans), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.14.

90+6'

Le Mans

Corner, Le Mans.

90+6'

B. Brahimi

Attempt blocked. B. Brahimi (Le Mans), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

90+5'

T. Jørgensen

Attempt blocked. T. Jørgensen (Toulouse), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.07.

90+5'

C. Tengstedt

Attempt missed. C. Tengstedt (Toulouse), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

90+4'

D. Sidibé

Yellow card for D. Sidibé (Le Mans) for foul.

90+3'

B. Brahimi

Attempt blocked. B. Brahimi (Le Mans), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

90+2'

C. Tengstedt

Attempt missed. C. Tengstedt (Toulouse), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

90+1'

T. Jørgensen

Attempt missed. T. Jørgensen (Toulouse), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.10.

90'

7 minutes of added time.

90'

S. Yohou

Yellow card for S. Yohou (Le Mans) for foul.

87'

C. Tengstedt

Goal! Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse. C. Tengstedt (Toulouse) scores, assisted by C. Cásseres Jr..

86'

L. Bretelle

Attempt missed. L. Bretelle (Le Mans), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

85'

H. Diallo

Attempt blocked. H. Diallo (Le Mans), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.13.

85'

R. Nicolaisen

Substitution, Toulouse: S. Koumbassa comes on for R. Nicolaisen.

82'

L. Calodat

Attempt saved. L. Calodat (Le Mans), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

79'

Le Mans

Corner, Le Mans.

78'

Toulouse

Offside, Toulouse.

78'

C. Tengstedt

VAR check complete: the goal for Toulouse stands.

77'

H. Voyer

Substitution, Le Mans: N. Boissé comes on for H. Voyer.

76'

J. Russell Rowe

Substitution, Toulouse: J. Vignolo comes on for J. Russell Rowe.

69'

L. Buades

Substitution, Le Mans: R. Bamba comes on for L. Buades.

66'

L. Mafouta

Attempt blocked. L. Mafouta (Le Mans), header. xG 0.26.

66'

J. Vercruysse

Attempt missed. J. Vercruysse (Le Mans), right-footed shot. xG 0.14.

64'

A. Dønnum

Substitution, Toulouse: A. Vossah comes on for A. Dønnum.

61'

Y. Larouci

Substitution, Le Mans: L. Calodat comes on for Y. Larouci.

61'

D. Gueye

Substitution, Le Mans: H. Diallo comes on for D. Gueye.

61'

D. Traore

Substitution, Le Mans: B. Brahimi comes on for D. Traore.

59'

A. Dønnum

Goal! Le Mans 0-2 Toulouse. A. Dønnum (Toulouse) scores.

52'

Toulouse

Corner, Toulouse.

50'

C. Tengstedt

Attempt missed. C. Tengstedt (Toulouse), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

49'

J. Russell Rowe

Yellow card for J. Russell Rowe (Toulouse).

46'

J. Russell Rowe

Goal! Le Mans 0-1 Toulouse. J. Russell Rowe (Toulouse) scores, assisted by A. Dønnum.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Le Mans 0-0 Toulouse.

45'

1 minute of added time.

45'

J. Russell Rowe

Attempt saved. J. Russell Rowe (Toulouse), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

32'

Toulouse

Offside, Toulouse.

31'

C. Tapé

Attempt missed. C. Tapé (Toulouse), header from a set piece. xG 0.02.

27'

D. Traore

Attempt missed. D. Traore (Le Mans), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

15'

C. Tengstedt

Attempt missed. C. Tengstedt (Toulouse), header. xG 0.10.

13'

J. Vercruysse

Attempt missed. J. Vercruysse (Le Mans), right-footed shot. xG 0.13.

12'

L. Mafouta

Attempt missed. L. Mafouta (Le Mans), header. xG 0.03.

7'

Toulouse

Offside, Toulouse.

7'

Toulouse

Corner, Toulouse.

6'

C. Tengstedt

Attempt saved. C. Tengstedt (Toulouse), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

3'

C. Cásseres Jr.

Attempt missed. C. Cásseres Jr. (Toulouse), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.03.

1'

Kick-off: Le Mans vs Toulouse.

Where the money is

1270628 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 683708 EUR · live

Away 1.01 · implied 99.0%

83.8%

-15.2 vs price

Home 720.0 · implied 0.1%

8.6%

+8.5 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

7.6%

+7.5 vs price

Half time 3317 EUR · live

Draw 1.21 · implied 82.6%

72.5%

-10.1 vs price

Away 8.0 · implied 12.5%

14.4%

+1.9 vs price

Home 12.5 · implied 8.0%

13.0%

+5.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 198395 EUR · live

Under 1.96 · implied 51.0%

67.4%

+16.4 vs price

Over 2.04 · implied 49.0%

32.6%

-16.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 5632 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

94.1%

-4.9 vs price

Over 34.0 · implied 2.9%

5.9%

+3.0 vs price

16 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

Half-time · 0–0

46' ⚽ J. Russell Rowe · assist A. Dønnum0–1

49' J. Russell Rowe

59' ⚽ A. Dønnum0–2

61' 🔁 B. Brahimi ◂ D. Traore

61' 🔁 H. Diallo ◂ D. Gueye

61' 🔁 L. Calodat ◂ Y. Larouci

64' 🔁 A. Vossah ◂ A. Dønnum

69' 🔁 R. Bamba ◂ L. Buades

76' 🔁 J. Vignolo ◂ J. Russell Rowe

77' 🔁 N. Boissé ◂ H. Voyer

78' VAR Goal not given after review · C. Tengstedt

85' 🔁 S. Koumbassa ◂ R. Nicolaisen

87' ⚽ C. Tengstedt · assist C. Cásseres Jr.0–3

Full-time · 0–3

90' S. Yohou · Foul

90'⁺⁴ D. Sidibé · Foul

Coaches

Patrick Videira

Jens Askou

Recent form

Le Mans

LAParis Saint-Germain1-3

LAGuingamp1-2

WHNantes3-1

WHLorient2-1

DHRC Lens2-2

Toulouse

DAAS Monaco2-2

LHPau FC2-3

WHLe Havre3-2

DALorient2-2

LHLille0-1

About this match

**Le Mans hosts Toulouse in a dead-even slugfest** — their last dozen meetings are split three ways, and both sides are treading water in form right now. 🏆

Le Mans just bounced Nantes but got hammered at PSG; Toulouse has drawn twice in five and looks fragile after that loss to Pau. This one screams "whoever avoids a stupid mistake wins."

Key storylines:

- **Le Mans' home edge** could matter against a Toulouse side that's leaked goals (2-3 to Pau, 3-2 to Le Havre)
- **Toulouse's midfield anchor** C. Cásseres Jr. and T. Jørgensen will need to clamp down on Le Mans' attacking forays through the middle
- **Le Mans' front two** — L. Mafouta and D. Gueye — face a Toulouse backline (M. McKenzie, R. Nicolaisen) that's had its shaky moments

Expected lineups:

- **Le Mans**: N. Kocik, Y. Larouci, H. Voyer, N. Boissé, R. Bamba, A. Lauray, L. Bretelle, J. Vercruysse, L. Calodat, L. Mafouta, D. Gueye
- **Toulouse**: G. Restes, C. Tapé, M. McKenzie, R. Nicolaisen, I. Diallo, C. Cásseres Jr., T. Jørgensen, S. Oppong, N. Schmidt, S. Hidalgo, I. Azizi

Prediction:

**Le Mans 1–1 Toulouse.** Both teams have enough defensive frailties to concede, but neither has the clinical edge to steal it. Coin flip energy. 🤝

Where to watch

DStv NowSuperSport Maximo

Match facts

Stadium

Stade Marie-Marvingt

City

Le Mans

Referee

Aurelien Petit

3.79 yellows/match · 34 matches

Kickoff

16 Oct, 18:45 UTC

Competition

Ligue 1

Highlights & clips

Le Mans 3-1-4-2 · 4-2-3-1 Toulouse

98 N. Kocik 6.5 19 D. Sidibé 6.5 17 S. Yohou 6.3 15 N. Boissé 6.6 ↑ 77' 29 L. Bretelle 7.0 26 R. Bamba 6.5 ↑ 69' 22 L. Calodat 7.1 ↑ 61' 10 J. Vercruysse 5.9 13 H. Diallo 6.1 ↑ 61' 14 L. Mafouta 6.1 7 B. Brahimi 7.1 ↑ 61' 16 G. Restes 7.2 22 R. Messali 8.7 3 M. McKenzie 7.4 5 S. Koumbassa 6.7 ↑ 85' 12 C. Tapé 7.0 23 C. Cásseres Jr. 7.8 14 N. Sigur 6.8 6 A. Vossah 7.0 ↑ 64' 20 C. Tengstedt 7.6 8 T. Jørgensen 7.4 7 J. Vignolo 7.0 ↑ 76'

Substitutes

1GE. Hatfout 5DH. Voyer↓ 77'6.6 76DY. Larouci↓ 61'6.4 23MD. Traore↓ 61'6.5 18ML. Buades↓ 69'6.2 8MA. Lauray 25FD. Gueye↓ 61'6.4 9FA. Rabillard 20FW. Harhouz

Coach: Patrick Videira

Substitutes

1GT. Collin 2DR. Nicolaisen↓ 85'7.2 94DI. Diallo 19DD. Odogu 15MA. Dønnum↓ 64'8.6 18MM. Amougou 31MN. Schmidt 13FJ. Russell Rowe↓ 76'7.6 9FS. Hidalgo

Coach: Jens Askou

Top stats

53%Possession47%

0.95Expected goals (xG)1.81

11Total shots13

1Shots on target5

2Big chances2

2Corners2

Shots

6Shots off target7

4Blocked shots1

7Shots inside box9

4Shots outside box4

0Big chances scored2

2Big chances missed0

0.19Goals prevented0.16

Attack

20Touches in box17

71Final third entries44

0Offsides3

9Free kicks15

1Fouled in final third5

Passing

564Passes526

489Accurate passes450

27/56 (48%)Long balls23/51 (45%)

7/35 (20%)Crosses1/4 (25%)

17Throw-ins14

Duels

40Duels60

26/58 (45%)Ground duels32/58 (55%)

10/32 (31%)Aerial duels22/32 (69%)

6/13 (46%)Dribbles6/14 (43%)

6Dispossessed3

Defending

11Tackles13

82Tackles won77

4Interceptions7

16Clearances32

50Recoveries49

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

7Goal kicks8

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Le Mans 32%

27%

Toulouse 42%

Who winsLe Mans to win (DNB) 72% · 2.25 @ Bet365

1X2Toulouse to win 42% · 2.50 @ Bet365

BTTSBoth teams to score 62% · 2.80 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 58% · 3.58 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 80% · 1.87 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 60% · 1.67 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 27% · 2.69 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 63% · 1.42 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 52% · 1.74 @ Pinnacle

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 63% · 1.56 @ Pinnacle

1X2Le Mans to win 32% · 3.20 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

3.00

Le Mans

3.60

Draw

2.25

Toulouse

Double Chanceconsensus

1.61

Le Mans or Draw

1.25

Le Mans or Toulouse

1.36

Draw or Toulouse

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.51

Yes

2.40

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

6.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.01

Over 0.50

15.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.17

Over 1.50

4.55

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.64

Over 2.50

2.25

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.51

Over 3.50

1.49

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.60

Over 4.50

1.17

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.15

Le Mans

1.62

Toulouse

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.31

Over 7.50

2.87

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.62

Over 8.50

2.19

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.02

Over 9.50

1.73

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.47

Over 10.50

1.42

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.12

Over 11.50

1.23

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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