Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Marseille's in the mood for a smash-and-grab, and Toulouse are just trying to stay tidy** 🔵 The Vélodrome is the place to be when OM are rolling, and they've won decisively at home recently — but Toulouse's resilient shape makes this trickier than the odds suggest.
OM are 3W-2L over their last five with some wild scorelines (5-2 one week, 0-1 the next). Toulouse sit 2W-2D-1L and haven't lost since early October, leaning on defensive solidity and the occasional bite on the break. The head-to-head heavily favors Marseille, but this isn't a vintage Toulouse side they're facing.
Key storylines:
- **Marseille's attack** (Gouiri, Paixão, Abdelli) has serious potency at home, especially with Harit pulling strings in midfield
- **Toulouse defending** without injured Oppong still looks organized; McKenzie and Nicolaisen have held firm in recent weeks
- OM's inconsistency — that loss to Sturm Graz — means Toulouse can't be written off despite the gulf in head-to-head record
Expected lineups:
- **Olympique de Marseille**: De Lange, Emerson, Egan-Riley, Aguerd, Weah, Paixão, Højbjerg, Harit, Abdelli, Gouiri, Russell Rowe
- **Toulouse**: Restes, Tapé, McKenzie, Nicolaisen, Sigur, Cásseres Jr., Jørgensen, Tengstedt, Schmidt, Hidalgo, Russell Rowe
Prediction: **Marseille 2-0 Toulouse**
OM edge this comfortably at home, but expect Toulouse to make them work for it.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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