Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Brest's on a roll, but Lyon's injury ward is looking like a hospital wing.** This is a proper test for the hosts, who've picked up serious momentum while Les Gones are stretched thinner than a taut goalpost net. 🔥
Brest have been rock-solid at home (2W, 1D in their last three), riding **Magnetti** and **Mboup** in midfield with real swagger. Lyon arrive in chaos — five key absences including top-attacking options — but still managed back-to-back wins before getting hammered by PSG. The real story: can Brest's defense handle **Nakamura** and co. in transition, or will Lyon's mix-and-match attack crumble under the pressure?
Key storylines:
- **Magnetti** and **Mboup** anchoring Brest's midfield against a Lyon side missing key depth — the locals have the platform to control tempo
- **Ajorque** and **Baldé** leading the charge up top for Brest, chasing a third straight win at the Stade Francis-Le Ble
- Lyon's injury crisis (five unavailable) forces makeshift attacking options — **Himbert** and **Duranville** asked to deliver magic on a short bench
Expected lineups:
- **Stade Brestois**: Selvik, Locko, Chotard, G. Lloris, Zogbé, Mboup, Magnetti, Ajorque, Doumbia, Lala, Baldé
- **Olympique Lyonnais**: Greif, Athekame, Abner Vinícius, Bacher, Kluivert, Tolisso, Bidstrup, Nakamura, Boudache, Duranville, Himbert
Prediction:
**Brest 2-1 Lyon.** Hosts have the edge in depth and form — Lyon's injury list catches up with them on the road.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.3%.
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