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Wouter Vrancken
Heart of Midlothian
SK Sturm Graz
Heart of Midlothian
4-3-3 · 4-4-2
SK Sturm Graz
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
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Player of the match
Match events
Half-time · 0–0
45'+2
🔁
S. Findlay ◂ S. Kingsley
46'
🔁
R. Fosso ◂ L. Weinhandl
61'
A. Vallci · Foul
64'
⚽
S. Seidl · assist J. G. Stanković0–1
68'
⚽
E. Soglo0–2
69'
🔁
A. Ba-Sy ◂ S. S. Guendouz
69'
🔁
T. Renaud ◂ B. Spittal
69'
🔁
P. L. Kabore ◂ C. Miller
72'
🔁
B. Beganović ◂ S. Włodarczyk
76'
🔁
A. Malić ◂ E. Soglo
77'
🔁
G. Mamageishvili ◂ J. Hödl
80'
🔁
J. McCart ◂ A. Kyziridis
81'
🔁
J. Halwachs ◂ J. G. Stanković
Full-time · 0–2
Coaches
Wouter VranckenFabio Ingolitsch 
Recent form
Heart of MidlothianWARaith Rovers1-0
LASK Sturm Graz0-4
WHRayo Vallecano2-1
WAArbroath2-1
LALivingston1-2
SK Sturm GrazWHHeart of Midlothian4-0
WHPogoń Szczecin1-0
WHSanfrecce Hiroshima5-1
WHSC Kalsdorf4-1
DHFC Košice2-2
Where to watch
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Match facts
Stadium
Tynecastle Park
City
Edinburgh
Referee
Andris Treimanis
Kickoff
28 Jul, 18:45 UTC
Competition
Champions League
Heart of Midlothian
4-3-3 · 4-4-2
SK Sturm Graz
1
A. Schwolow
9.7
23
J. Altena
6.9
64
M. Fagan-Walcott
6.2
17
S. Findlay
6.3
↑ 45'
18
H. Milne
6.9
12
T. Renaud
6.9
↑ 69'
6
O. McEntee
6.9
11
P. L. Kabore
6.6
↑ 69'
5
J. McCart
6.6
↑ 80'
10
C. Braga
6.6
77
A. Ba-Sy
6.3
↑ 69'
53
D. Khudyakov
7.8
28
J. Heil
6.7
5
A. Vallci
7.4
2
J. Mitchell
7.1
23
A. Malić
6.9
↑ 76'
19
S. Seidl
8.3
80
R. Fosso
6.8
↑ 46'
40
J. Halwachs
6.7
↑ 81'
15
G. Mamageishvili
6.4
↑ 77'
26
B. Beganović
6.5
↑ 72'
20
S. Jatta
5.8
Substitutes
28GZ. Clark
30GR. Fulton
3DS. Kingsley↓ 45'7.0
7MC. Miller↓ 69'7.0
16MB. Spittal↓ 69'6.6
89MA. Kyziridis↓ 80'6.6
22MT. Magnusson
19FS. S. Guendouz↓ 69'6.4
21FJ. Wilson
29FS. Kerjota
Coach: Wouter Vrancken
Top stats
64%Possession36%
0.95Expected goals (xG, estimated)2.24
15Total shots17
4Shots on target9
0Big chances4
8Corners2
Shots
7Shots off target5
4Blocked shots3
8Shots inside box13
7Shots outside box4
0Hit woodwork0
0Big chances scored1
0Big chances missed3
Attack
30Touches in box25
67Final third entries57
2Offsides2
15Free kicks10
4Fouled in final third3
Passing
473Passes268
377Accurate passes182
33/64 (52%)Long balls23/60 (38%)
7/23 (30%)Crosses1/8 (13%)
33Throw-ins24
Duels
51Duels49
30/76 (39%)Ground duels47/78 (60%)
31/44 (70%)Aerial duels12/43 (28%)
5/16 (31%)Dribbles12/20 (60%)
14Dispossessed5
Defending
12Tackles25
33Tackles won48
9Interceptions7
27Clearances51
51Recoveries51
Discipline
10Fouls15
0Yellow cards1
Goalkeeping
7Saves3
0Big saves1
6Goal kicks9
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 35 bookmakers
CornersOver 10.5 corners 56% · 1.83 @ Bet365
CornersOver 9.5 corners 67% · 1.50 @ 888Sport
CornersOver 8.5 corners 74% · 1.29 @ 888Sport
BTTSBoth teams to score 62% · 1.58 @ Betsson
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 60% · 1.59 @ 1xBet
Who winsHearts to win (DNB) 66% · 1.45 @ Betsson
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 80% · 1.21 @ 1xBet
1X2Hearts to win 50% · 1.90 @ Interwetten
1X2Draw 24% · 4.15 @ Betsson
1X2Sturm to win 25% · 3.90 @ Bwin
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 61% · 1.60 @ Betano
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.84
Heart of Midlothian ▼
3.88
Draw ▲
3.72
SK Sturm Graz ▲
Double Chanceconsensus
1.27
Heart of Midlothian or Draw ▲
1.24
Heart of Midlothian or SK Sturm Graz ▲
1.85
Draw or SK Sturm Graz ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.51
Yes ▼
2.41
No ▼
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50 ▼
13.91
Under 0.50 ▲
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.18
Over 1.50 ▲
4.85
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.56
Over 2.50 ▼
2.39
Under 2.50 ▲
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.39
Over 3.50 ▲
1.57
Under 3.50 ▼
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.10
Over 4.50 ▲
1.23
Under 4.50 ▲
Draw No Betconsensus
1.40
Heart of Midlothian ▲
2.76
SK Sturm Graz ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
15.50
Under 4.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.01
Over 5.50
19.00
Under 5.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.05
Over 6.50 ▼
9.00
Under 6.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.13
Over 7.50 ▼
5.67
Under 7.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.23
Over 8.50 ▼
3.81
Under 8.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.38
Over 9.50 ▼
2.82
Under 9.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
1.64
Over 10.50 ▲
2.12
Under 10.50 ▼
2.1 – 1.0Expected goals
2-0Most likely score
~11Expected corners
No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.
Every market recommended rows highlighted
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 cornersCorners | 56% | 56% | 1.64 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 9.5 cornersCorners | 67% | 67% | 1.39 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 74% | 74% | 1.26 | Overpriced | high |
| Both teams to scoreBTTS | 62% | 62% | 1.5 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 2.5 goalsGoals | 60% | 61% | 1.53 | Overpriced | medium |
| Hearts to win (DNB)Who wins | 66% | 66% | 1.41 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 80% | 81% | 1.16 | Overpriced | high |
| Hearts to win1X2 | 50% | 50% | 1.86 | Overpriced | low |
| Draw1X2 | 24% | 24% | 3.83 | Overpriced | low |
| Sturm to win1X2 | 25% | 25% | 3.66 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 61% | 60% | 1.57 | Fair | medium |
Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: Hearts to win (DNB) — we say 84%, they say 66%.
Probability vs league average
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 81% | -1% | No |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +2% | Yes |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 36% | +3% | Yes |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 52% | +10% | Yes |
| Home win | 50% | 48% | +2% | Yes |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | +4% | Yes |
| Away win | 25% | 32% | -7% | No |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
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