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Niels Frederiksen
Lech Poznań
AGF
Lech Poznań
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
AGF
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Player of the match
Match events
32'
⚽
T. Bech · assist K. Arnstad0–1
40'
A. Kozubal · Foul
Half-time · 0–1
45'
J. Bogere · Foul
55'
⚽
K. Arnstad (pen)0–2
60'
🔁
C. Storch ◂ J. Jensen-Abbew
68'
🔁
A. Sayyad ◂ L. Palma
70'
🔁
S. Tchamche ◂ J. Bogere
70'
🔁
R. Carstensen ◂ J. Jønsson
75'
⚽
F. Tingager · assist E. Kahl0–3
81'
🔁
J. Pereira ◂ R. Gumny
81'
🔁
F. Jagiełło ◂ P. Rodríguez
86'
M. Anderson · Argument
87'
🔁
D. Håkans ◂ P. Wålemark
88'
🔁
Y. Agnero ◂ M. Ishak
Full-time · 0–3
90'+3
🔁
M. Camara ◂ E. Kahl
91'
F. Emmery · Foul
95'
⚽
F. Jagiełło1–3
97'
🔁
T. Ó. Kristjánsson ◂ F. Emmery
97'
🔁
J. Serra ◂ M. Anderson
98'
🔁
G. Thordarson ◂ R. Murawski
100'
⚽
T. Ó. Kristjánsson · assist T. Bech1–4
105'+1
Y. Agnero · Argument
107'
M. Camara · Foul
ET · 1–4
PEN · 3–4
Coaches
Niels FrederiksenJakob Poulsen 
Recent form
Lech PoznańDHKS Cracovia0-0
WAAGF4-1
WHBohemians Praha 19054-0
WHFK Železiarne Podbrezová3-1
DHWisła Płock2-2
AGFDHBrøndby IF1-1
LHLech Poznań1-4
WHAC Horsens2-0
LARoyale Union Saint-Gilloise1-2
WHMotherwell4-0
Where to watch
Bold+
TVP Sport AppTVP Sport HDsport.tvp.pl
Match facts
Stadium
Enea Poznań
City
Poznan
Referee
Juxhin Xhaja
Kickoff
29 Jul, 17:00 UTC
Competition
Champions League
Lech Poznań
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
AGF
1
M. Lis
5.7
2
J. Pereira
7.7
↑ 81'
27
W. Mońka
6.3
59
T. Yegbe
5.8
15
M. Gurgul
6.3
23
G. Thordarson
6.2
↑ 98'
43
A. Kozubal
5.6
11
D. Håkans
6.6
↑ 87'
24
F. Jagiełło
7.9
↑ 81'
17
A. Sayyad
6.6
↑ 68'
7
Y. Agnero
7.2
↑ 88'
21
M. Hedenstad
10.0
45
C. Storch
6.0
↑ 60'
5
F. Tingager
9.3
44
M. Camara
6.7
↑ 90'
13
J. Serra
7.2
↑ 97'
4
M. Knudsen
6.8
29
R. Carstensen
6.9
↑ 70'
20
T. Ó. Kristjánsson
8.1
↑ 97'
31
T. Bech
8.4
10
K. Arnstad
6.9
27
S. Tchamche
6.2
↑ 70'
Top stats
49%Possession51%
6.5Expected goals (xG, estimated)6.34
18Total shots14
9Shots on target6
6Big chances3
14Corners3
Shots
5Shots off target2
4Blocked shots6
16Shots inside box9
2Shots outside box5
0Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored3
5Big chances missed0
Attack
34Touches in box27
58Final third entries78
0Offsides2
14Free kicks11
3Fouled in final third5
Passing
456Passes495
359Accurate passes397
26/57 (46%)Long balls28/67 (42%)
9/35 (26%)Crosses6/19 (32%)
25Throw-ins22
Duels
50Duels50
37/71 (52%)Ground duels34/71 (48%)
15/34 (44%)Aerial duels19/34 (56%)
8/17 (47%)Dribbles10/15 (67%)
7Dispossessed11
Defending
16Tackles16
75Tackles won88
8Interceptions8
40Clearances40
58Recoveries60
Discipline
12Fouls14
2Yellow cards4
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
0Big saves1
7Goal kicks9
3Punches2
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 36 bookmakers
Who winsLech to win (DNB) 71% · 1.42 @ Betsson
1X2Lech to win 54% · 1.82 @ Betsson
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 60% · 1.69 @ 1xBet
BTTSBoth teams to score 59% · 1.62 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 80% · 1.21 @ 1xBet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 60% · 1.58 @ Betsson
1X2Draw 24% · 4.15 @ Betano
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 63% · 1.51 @ Bwin
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 51% · 1.85 @ 10bet
1X2AGF to win 22% · 4.40 @ Novibet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 61% · 1.55 @ Betano
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.77
Lech Poznań ▲
3.70
Draw ▼
4.09
AGF ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.23
Lech Poznań or Draw ▲
1.24
Lech Poznań or AGF ▲
2.00
Draw or AGF ▲
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.57
Yes ▲
2.29
No ▲
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.03
Over 0.50 ▼
12.88
Under 0.50 ▲
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.19
Over 1.50 ▼
4.50
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.62
Over 2.50 ▲
2.28
Under 2.50 ▼
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.50
Over 3.50 ▲
1.52
Under 3.50 ▼
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.33
Over 4.50 ▲
1.21
Under 4.50 ▲
Draw No Betconsensus
1.35
Lech Poznań ▲
3.01
AGF ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
15.00
Under 4.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.05
Over 5.50 ▼
9.33
Under 5.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.13
Over 6.50 ▼
5.17
Under 6.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.27
Over 7.50 ▼
3.33
Under 7.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.53
Over 8.50 ▲
2.35
Under 8.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.89
Over 9.50 ▼
1.81
Under 9.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.44
Over 10.50 ▼
1.47
Under 10.50 ▼
2.1 – 1.3Expected goals
2-1Most likely score
~10Expected corners
No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.
Every market recommended rows highlighted
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech to win (DNB)Who wins | 71% | 71% | 1.32 | Overpriced | high |
| Lech to win1X2 | 54% | 54% | 1.72 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 2.5 goalsGoals | 60% | 59% | 1.59 | Fair | low |
| Both teams to scoreBTTS | 59% | 59% | 1.58 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 80% | 80% | 1.17 | Overpriced | high |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 60% | 60% | 1.53 | Overpriced | medium |
| Draw1X2 | 24% | 24% | 3.93 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 10.5 cornersCorners | 63% | 63% | 1.47 | Overpriced | medium |
| Under 9.5 cornersCorners | 51% | 51% | 1.8 | Overpriced | low |
| AGF to win1X2 | 22% | 22% | 4.3 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 61% | 62% | 1.51 | Overpriced | medium |
Probability vs league average
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 81% | -1% | No |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +2% | Yes |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 36% | +3% | Yes |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 52% | +7% | Yes |
| Home win | 54% | 48% | +6% | Yes |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | +4% | Yes |
| Away win | 22% | 32% | -10% | No |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
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