Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Excelsior's on a roll, Utrecht's limping through — this is a proper mismatch on paper.** 🔥 The hosts have won three of their last five and look sharp at home, while Utrecht are bleeding defensive bodies and results alike.
Excelsior's confidence is sky-high after dismantling Willem II and edging Sparta. Utrecht, meanwhile, are stuck in a rut—three losses in five and leaking goals at an alarming rate (conceded 12 in those same five games). Missing three key defenders including M. Jonathans doesn't help their cause.
Key storylines:
- **Excelsior's home form** versus a makeshift Utrecht backline patched together by injury
- **D. Garden and Á. O. Thorsteinsson's attacking thrust** up against a stretched Utrecht defense missing M. Jonathans, N. Ohio, and V. Jensen
- Can **D. De Wit and M. Broholm** create enough chaos in midfield to disrupt Excelsior's rhythm, or will the hosts dictate?
Expected lineups:
- **Excelsior**: S. van Gassel, S. Janssen, R. Meissen, J. Plug, E. d. S. Moreira, C. Widell, I. Yegoian, L. Hartjes, D. Garden, Á. O. Thorsteinsson
- **FC Utrecht**: V. Barkas, A. Zagre, M. Didden, N. Nwankwo, S. Horemans, D. v. d. Berg, G. Offerhaus, Á. Alarcón, D. De Wit, M. Broholm, A. Stepanov
Prediction:
**Excelsior 3–1 FC Utrecht** — home side's form and Utrecht's injury crisis point to a comfortable win. 📍
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.5%.
Report a data issue
Spotted something wrong on this match? Tell us what and we'll fix it.