Aberdeen 0-1 St. Johnstone: Stats, xG & Lineups

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Aberdeen 0-1 St. Johnstone.

90+1'

D. Finlayson

Substitution, St. Johnstone: B. Mikulić comes on for D. Finlayson.

90'

3 minutes of added time.

90'

J. Milne

Attempt missed. J. Milne (Aberdeen), header from a set piece. xG 0.27.

90'

C. Cadden

Substitution, Aberdeen: A. Afeez comes on for C. Cadden.

84'

K. Nisbet

Attempt saved. K. Nisbet (Aberdeen), header. xG 0.06.

83'

H. Mahou

Attempt missed. H. Mahou (Aberdeen), header. xG 0.05.

83'

H. Mahou

Attempt missed. H. Mahou (Aberdeen), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

79'

T. Yogane

Attempt blocked. T. Yogane (Aberdeen), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

79'

Aberdeen

Corner, Aberdeen.

78'

S. Stanton

Substitution, St. Johnstone: J. Campbell comes on for S. Stanton.

78'

J. Fowler

Substitution, St. Johnstone: J. Gullan comes on for J. Fowler.

75'

Aberdeen

Corner, Aberdeen.

72'

T. Yogane

Attempt saved. T. Yogane (Aberdeen), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

70'

St. Johnstone

Corner, St. Johnstone.

70'

J. Holt

Attempt blocked. J. Holt (St. Johnstone), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

68'

N. Guinness-Walker

Substitution, Aberdeen: H. Mahou comes on for N. Guinness-Walker.

67'

M. Todd

Substitution, St. Johnstone: T. Steven comes on for M. Todd.

67'

Aberdeen

Corner, Aberdeen.

65'

C. Cadden

Attempt missed. C. Cadden (Aberdeen), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

62'

L. Smith

Attempt missed. L. Smith (Aberdeen), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

59'

J. Milne

Attempt missed. J. Milne (Aberdeen), header from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

59'

F. Marshall

Substitution, Aberdeen: T. Yogane comes on for F. Marshall.

59'

C. Ronan

Substitution, Aberdeen: S. Armstrong comes on for C. Ronan.

58'

R. Paton

Substitution, St. Johnstone: J. Cotterill comes on for R. Paton.

55'

F. Marshall

Attempt blocked. F. Marshall (Aberdeen), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.05.

55'

Aberdeen

Corner, Aberdeen.

51'

C. Ronan

Attempt missed. C. Ronan (Aberdeen), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

50'

C. Ronan

Attempt blocked. C. Ronan (Aberdeen), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

49'

Aberdeen

Corner, Aberdeen.

49'

Aberdeen

Corner, Aberdeen.

49'

F. Marshall

Attempt missed. F. Marshall (Aberdeen), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.

49'

C. Ronan

Attempt blocked. C. Ronan (Aberdeen), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.

48'

Aberdeen

Corner, Aberdeen.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Aberdeen 0-1 St. Johnstone.

45+7'

J. Milne

Attempt saved. J. Milne (Aberdeen), header from a set piece. xG 0.01.

45+2'

Aberdeen

Corner, Aberdeen.

45+2'

L. Smith

Attempt blocked. L. Smith (Aberdeen), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

45'

6 minutes of added time.

44'

R. Paton

Attempt blocked. R. Paton (St. Johnstone), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.

44'

St. Johnstone

Corner, St. Johnstone.

42'

L. Smith

Attempt missed. L. Smith (Aberdeen), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

37'

Aberdeen

Corner, Aberdeen.

36'

K. Nisbet

Attempt saved. K. Nisbet (Aberdeen), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

35'

A. Mouloua

Substitution, Aberdeen: L. Smith comes on for A. Mouloua.

34'

B. Lyons

Attempt missed. B. Lyons (Aberdeen), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

32'

Aberdeen

Corner, Aberdeen.

31'

A. Mouloua

Attempt saved. A. Mouloua (Aberdeen), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.02.

28'

Aberdeen

Corner, Aberdeen.

28'

Aberdeen

Corner, Aberdeen.

21'

C. Cadden

Attempt missed. C. Cadden (Aberdeen), header. xG 0.03.

17'

J. Milne

Attempt missed. J. Milne (Aberdeen), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

14'

J. Fowler

Goal! Aberdeen 0-1 St. Johnstone. J. Fowler (St. Johnstone) converts the penalty.

11'

R. Paton

Attempt missed. R. Paton (St. Johnstone), header. xG 0.07.

11'

J. Fowler

Attempt blocked. J. Fowler (St. Johnstone), left-footed shot. xG 0.10.

11'

J. Fowler

VAR: no penalty for St. Johnstone.

1'

Kick-off: Aberdeen vs St. Johnstone.

Where the money is

295543 EUR matched · captured 3 weeks, 1 day ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 147265 EUR · live

Away 1.04 · implied 96.2%

61.1%

-35.0 vs price

Home 210.0 · implied 0.5%

29.3%

+28.8 vs price

Draw 22.0 · implied 4.5%

9.6%

+5.0 vs price

Half time 626 EUR · live

Draw 3.55 · implied 28.2%

64.0%

+35.9 vs price

Away 1.44 · implied 69.4%

20.9%

-48.5 vs price

Home 16.0 · implied 6.2%

14.7%

+8.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 32148 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

75.6%

-23.4 vs price

Over 36.0 · implied 2.8%

24.7%

+22.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 2214 EUR · live

Under 1.15 · implied 87.0%

90.4%

+3.5 vs price

Over 6.8 · implied 14.7%

9.5%

-5.2 vs price

13 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 2 clips

Player of the match

Match events

11' VAR Penalty check · J. Fowler

14' ⚽ J. Fowler (pen)0–1

35' 🔁 L. Smith ◂ A. Mouloua

Half-time · 0–1

58' 🔁 J. Cotterill ◂ R. Paton

59' 🔁 S. Armstrong ◂ C. Ronan

59' 🔁 T. Yogane ◂ F. Marshall

67' 🔁 T. Steven ◂ M. Todd

68' 🔁 H. Mahou ◂ N. Guinness-Walker

78' 🔁 J. Gullan ◂ J. Fowler

78' 🔁 J. Campbell ◂ S. Stanton

Full-time · 0–1

90' 🔁 A. Afeez ◂ C. Cadden

90'⁺¹ 🔁 B. Mikulić ◂ D. Finlayson

Coaches

Steve Robinson

Simo Valakari

Recent form

Aberdeen

WADunfermline Athletic4-1

DAHibernian1-1

WAMotherwell4-0

DHKilmarnock0-0

LACeltic0-3

St. Johnstone

DHFalkirk FC1-1

LHCeltic0-1

WHHibernian2-1

DADundee FC1-1

LAHeart of Midlothian1-2

About this match

**Aberdeen's hitting form like a freight train, and St. Johnstone are limping in with injuries and inconsistency.** This should be a comfortable afternoon in the Granite City. 🔴

Aberdeen's racked up back-to-back big wins with clinical finishing, while Saints are stuck in a rut — just one win in five and struggling for consistency at home and away. The Pittodrie crowd will fancy their chances here.

Key storylines:

- **K. Nisbet and F. Marshall** leading the charge for a confident Aberdeen attack against a patchy Saints defence
- **St. Johnstone's injury crisis** with Z. Mitchell out compounds their defensive headaches; they'll need solid organizing from J. Holt and C. Diabate
- **L. Smith** features for both sides, but Aberdeen's midfield depth with **C. Ronan and A. Afeez** should dominate possession and tempo

Expected lineups:

- **Aberdeen**: M. Müller, N. Guinness-Walker, L. Mayo, D. Happe, C. Cadden, A. Afeez, C. Ronan, T. Yogane, F. Marshall, L. Smith, K. Nisbet
- **St. Johnstone**: T. Steward, E. Alić, J. Holt, C. Diabate, L. Smith, R. McAlear, S. Stanton, J. Gullan, M. Todd, T. Steven, J. Fowler

Prediction:

**Aberdeen 3–1 St. Johnstone**

Dons cruise past a side lacking rhythm and bodies. ⚪

Where to watch

DStv NowESPN Africa

Match facts

Kickoff

11 Oct, 13:00 UTC

Competition

Scottish Premiership

Highlights & clips

Aberdeen 5-3-2 · 3-4-2-1 St. Johnstone

27 M. Müller 6.9 32 A. Afeez ↑ 90' 22 J. Milne 7.2 5 M. Knoester 7.2 21 G. Molloy 6.8 14 H. Mahou 6.3 ↑ 68' 8 B. Lyons 7.3 7 T. Yogane 6.8 ↑ 59' 17 S. Armstrong 7.3 ↑ 59' 11 L. Smith 6.9 ↑ 35' 15 K. Nisbet 6.8 1 T. Steward 8.1 33 L. Smith 6.9 6 B. Mikulić ↑ 90' 14 M. Foulds 7.1 7 T. Steven 6.6 ↑ 67' 42 R. McAlear 7.0 8 J. Holt 7.0 2 E. Alić 6.3 32 J. Campbell 6.7 ↑ 78' 30 J. Cotterill 6.7 ↑ 58' 10 J. Gullan 6.7 ↑ 78'

Substitutes

30GD. Klein 28DC. Cadden↓ 90'7.2 24DN. Guinness-Walker↓ 68'6.9 26DD. Happe 23DL. Mayo 25MC. Ronan↓ 59'6.8 40MF. Marshall↓ 59'6.1 9FA. Mouloua↓ 35'6.6 20FT. Olusanya

Coach: Steve Robinson

Substitutes

20GR. Sinclair 19DD. Finlayson↓ 90'7.2 11MS. Stanton↓ 78'7.0 26MM. Todd↓ 67'6.6 18MK. Fotheringham 23ML. Chalmers 99FR. Paton↓ 58'6.9 9FJ. Fowler↓ 78'6.3 22FD. Schmidt

Coach: Simo Valakari

Top stats

65%Possession35%

1.23Expected goals (xG)1.1

22Total shots5

5Shots on target1

2Big chances2

13Corners2

Shots

12Shots off target1

5Blocked shots3

15Shots inside box5

7Shots outside box0

0Big chances scored1

2Big chances missed1

-0.2Goals prevented0.4

Attack

39Touches in box11

101Final third entries38

10Free kicks6

3Fouled in final third1

Passing

566Passes307

459Accurate passes225

45/72 (63%)Long balls19/63 (30%)

9/47 (19%)Crosses1/12 (8%)

25Throw-ins21

Duels

59Duels41

29/45 (64%)Ground duels16/45 (36%)

24/45 (53%)Aerial duels21/45 (47%)

5/10 (50%)Dribbles1/4 (25%)

5Dispossessed11

Defending

14Tackles10

57Tackles won40

6Interceptions9

11Clearances77

56Recoveries50

Discipline

7Fouls10

0Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

2Goal kicks18

0Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Aberdeen 43%

28%

St. Johnstone 29%

CornersOver 9.5 corners 56% · 1.76 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 68% · 1.40 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 28% · 2.45 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 51% · 1.17 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 54% · 3.40 @ Bet365

Who winsAberdeen to win (DNB) 61% · 1.56 @ Novibet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 72% · 1.34 @ Pinnacle

1X2Aberdeen to win 43% · 2.62 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 73% · 2.15 @ William Hill

1X2St. Johnstone to win 29% · 3.58 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 55% · 1.65 @ Pinnacle

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.16

Aberdeen

3.30

Draw

3.25

St. Johnstone

Double Chanceconsensus

1.30

Aberdeen or Draw

1.30

Aberdeen or St. Johnstone

1.66

Draw or St. Johnstone

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.72

Yes

2.00

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

4.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

5.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.04

Over 0.50

10.25

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.29

Over 1.50

3.50

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.90

Over 2.50

1.85

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.38

Over 3.50

1.33

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

6.50

Over 4.50

1.10

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.46

Aberdeen

2.50

St. Johnstone

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.20

Over 7.50

3.29

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.40

Over 8.50

2.53

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.73

Over 9.50

2.00

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.17

Over 10.50

1.63

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.68

Over 11.50

1.35

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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