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Alfred Johansson
Motherwell
Heart of Midlothian
Motherwell
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2
Heart of Midlothian
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Motherwell 0-2 Heart of Midlothian.
90'
3 minutes of added time.
89'
Attempt saved. S. Kingsley (Heart of Midlothian), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.03.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Motherwell 0-1 Heart of Midlothian.
45'
1 minute of added time.
39'
Attempt missed. S. Palmer-Houlden (Motherwell), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.08.
29'
Goal! Motherwell 0-1 Heart of Midlothian. C. Braga (Heart of Midlothian) scores, assisted by S. Kerjota.
28'
Attempt blocked. C. Braga (Heart of Midlothian), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.02.
26'
Attempt missed. J. McPake (Heart of Midlothian), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.03.
26'
Attempt missed. R. Mato (Heart of Midlothian), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.10.
26'
Attempt blocked. C. Braga (Heart of Midlothian), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.11.
16'
Attempt missed. T. Maswanhise (Motherwell), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.19.
9'
Attempt missed. J. Altena (Heart of Midlothian), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.
1'
Kick-off: Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
78444 EUR · live
Away
1.01 · implied 99.0%
83.5%
-15.5 vs price
Home
990.0 · implied 0.1%
8.5%
+8.4 vs price
Draw
55.0 · implied 1.8%
8.2%
+6.4 vs price
Half time
58 EUR
Away
2.74 · implied 36.5%
60.3%
+23.8 vs price
Draw
2.52 · implied 39.7%
25.7%
-14.0 vs price
Home
4.1 · implied 24.4%
14.0%
-10.4 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
13053 EUR · live
Under
1.02 · implied 98.0%
51.2%
-46.9 vs price
Over
10.5 · implied 9.5%
50.2%
+40.7 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
130 EUR
Under
1.18 · implied 84.7%
100.0%
+15.3 vs price
Over
6.4 · implied 15.6%
8.4%
-7.2 vs price
14 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
24'
M. Fagan-Walcott · Foul
29'
⚽
C. Braga · assist S. Kerjota0–1
41'
T. Sparrow · Foul
Half-time · 0–1
57'
S. Kerjota · Argument
59'
J. McCart · Foul
61'
🔁
J. Knight-Lebel ◂ M. Moormann
64'
🔁
L. Mendy ◂ T. Magnusson
65'
🔁
E. Bjørgolfsson ◂ S. Palmer-Houlden
65'
🔁
J. Kanga ◂ J. McGhee
65'
🔁
C. Miller ◂ S. Kerjota
77'
R. Mato · Foul
79'
I. Said · Argument
81'
T. Maswanhise · Foul
82'
🔁
S. O'Donnell ◂ T. Sparrow
86'
⚽
C. Miller0–2
87'
🔁
Y. Dhanda ◂ J. Wilson
88'
🔁
J. Williams ◂ C. Braga
Full-time · 0–2
90'+1
🔁
S. S. Guendouz ◂ J. McPake
90'+3
Y. Dhanda · Time wasting
Coaches
Alfred JohanssonWouter Vrancken 
Recent form
MotherwellLAKilmarnock2-3
LHCeltic0-2
LADundee FC1-2
LHAberdeen0-4
LARangers0-1
Heart of MidlothianLATrabzonspor0-2
LACeltic1-7
DHFC Nordsjælland1-1
WHSt. Mirren5-0
DAKilmarnock1-1
About this match
**Motherwell are in freefall, Hearts are bruised but breathing** — this is a clash of two wounded Scottish Premiership sides, but one's clearly hurting worse. 🔴
Motherwell have bottled five straight, leaking goals and looking lost. Hearts grabbed a win recently and drew with Nordsjælland midweek, so they've got *some* rhythm. That said, **Hearts' injury list is absolutely stacked** — five bodies out compared to Motherwell's three. Form says Hearts lean the better bet here.
Key storylines:
- **Motherwell's spiral:** winless in five with zero draws. They need to find a gear or the pressure cooker explodes.
- **Hearts missing half the backline** — Halkett, Milne, Borchgrevink all out. Even with **McCart** and **Findlay** anchoring, expect creaks in defense.
- **McEntee and **Altena** will need to work overtime** as emergency wing-backs in a stretched Hearts rearguard.
Expected lineups:
- **Motherwell**: A. Paulsen, E. Longelo, M. Moormann, J. Girdwood-Reich, T. Sparrow, J. Hodge, L. Fadinger, R. Charles-Cook, A. Lowry, T. Maswanhise, S. Palmer-Houlden
- **Heart of Midlothian**: B. Reus, J. McCart, O. McEntee, S. Findlay, J. Altena, L. Mendy, C. Miller, C. Braga, Y. Dhanda, J. Wilson, A. Ba-Sy
Prediction:
**Hearts 2–1 Motherwell.** Hearts' slight edge in recent form plus Motherwell's complete collapse gives the visitors just enough to nick it. 💙
Where to watch
Paramount+
Sportdigital+
Premier Sports 1 HDPremier Sports 1 UKPremier Sports Player
Premier Sports 1 HDPremier Sports Player
Sport TV5
Paramount+
Match facts
Kickoff
25 Oct, 14:00 UTC
Competition
Scottish Premiership
Highlights & clips
Motherwell
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2
Heart of Midlothian
1
A. Paulsen
6.1
2
S. O'Donnell
6.5
↑ 82'
3
J. Girdwood-Reich
6.6
4
J. Knight-Lebel
6.3
↑ 61'
45
E. Longelo
7.2
13
J. Kanga
6.5
↑ 65'
63
D. Levitt
7.6
18
T. Maswanhise
6.1
19
I. Said
6.6
71
J. Hodge
6.6
15
E. Bjørgolfsson
6.5
↑ 65'
1
B. Reus
8.0
74
R. Mato
7.9
64
M. Fagan-Walcott
7.7
5
J. McCart
7.1
3
S. Kingsley
7.2
7
C. Miller
7.4
↑ 65'
78
L. Mendy
7.0
↑ 64'
23
J. Altena
7.0
19
S. S. Guendouz
↑ 90'
31
Y. Dhanda
↑ 87'
9
J. Williams
↑ 88'
Substitutes
21GM. Connelly
7DT. Sparrow↓ 82'6.9
5DM. Moormann↓ 61'6.6
6DJ. McGhee↓ 65'6.5
23DE. Wilson
27MM. Booth
47FS. Palmer-Houlden↓ 65'6.3
77FW. Vogt
Coach: Alfred Johansson
Substitutes
30GR. Fulton
15MJ. McPake↓ 90'6.9
22MT. Magnusson↓ 64'6.8
27MA. Benjaminsen
10FC. Braga↓ 88'8.4
29FS. Kerjota↓ 65'6.8
21FJ. Wilson↓ 87'6.1
11FP. L. Kabore
77FA. Ba-Sy
Coach: Wouter Vrancken
Top stats
54%Possession46%
1.26Expected goals (xG)1.06
17Total shots14
5Shots on target5
1Big chances1
6Corners5
Shots
7Shots off target3
5Blocked shots6
13Shots inside box10
4Shots outside box4
1Hit woodwork0
0Big chances scored1
1Big chances missed0
-0.72Goals prevented1.07
Attack
28Touches in box16
47Final third entries61
0Offsides1
10Free kicks15
2Fouled in final third4
Passing
481Passes412
403Accurate passes321
18/48 (38%)Long balls34/69 (49%)
3/17 (18%)Crosses2/16 (13%)
20Throw-ins24
Duels
48Duels52
34/71 (48%)Ground duels37/71 (52%)
11/23 (48%)Aerial duels12/23 (52%)
9/20 (45%)Dribbles2/6 (33%)
9Dispossessed11
Defending
15Tackles20
40Tackles won45
12Interceptions11
19Clearances20
54Recoveries47
Discipline
15Fouls10
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
1Big saves2
5Goal kicks10
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers
1X2Hearts to win 43% · 2.37 @ Bet365
CornersOver 9.5 corners 54% · 1.83 @ Bet365
CornersOver 8.5 corners 66% · 1.46 @ Pinnacle
BTTSBoth teams to score 60% · 2.75 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 57% · 3.50 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 79% · 1.80 @ William Hill
1X2Draw 26% · 2.73 @ 1xBet
Who winsMotherwell to win (DNB) 58% · 2.40 @ Betsson
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 65% · 1.58 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 57% · 1.62 @ Pinnacle
1X2Motherwell to win 31% · 3.70 @ William Hill
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.60
Motherwell
3.80
Draw
1.90
Heart of Midlothian
Double Chanceconsensus
1.79
Motherwell or Draw
1.23
Motherwell or Heart of Midlothian
1.27
Draw or Heart of Midlothian
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.53
Yes
2.37
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
7.50
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
3.90
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.01
Over 0.50
13.70
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.18
Over 1.50
4.50
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.60
Over 2.50
2.30
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.49
Over 3.50
1.50
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.40
Over 4.50
1.18
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.35
Motherwell
1.55
Heart of Midlothian
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.21
Over 7.50
3.25
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.44
Over 8.50
2.57
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.79
Over 9.50
1.96
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.21
Over 10.50
1.60
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.72
Over 11.50
1.35
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.
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