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Mattia Croci-Torti
FC Lugano
FC Vaduz
FC Lugano
3-4-1-2 · 4-3-1-2
FC Vaduz
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
29'
⚽
A. Papadopoulos · assist L. Mai1–0
32'
A. Papadopoulos · Foul
37'
⚽
L. Mai · assist R. Steffen2–0
Half-time · 2–0
46'
🔁
D. Sorgić ◂ D. Đokić
57'
🔁
N. Hasler ◂ M. Beeli
58'
🔁
M. Eberhard ◂ J. Cabrera
59'
🔁
D. Moncada ◂ R. Steffen
60'
🔁
D. Dos Santos ◂ A. Kendouci
66'
🔁
M. Cocić ◂ J. Stark
70'
🔁
K. Behrens ◂ E. Pihlstrom
70'
🔁
M. Zanotti ◂ Y. Cimignani
71'
⚽
L. Dalipi · assist D. Sorgić2–1
74'
M. Monsberger · Foul
80'
🔁
D. Schwizer ◂ M. Sawadogo
82'
L. Schaffran · Professional foul last man
Full-time · 2–1
90'+3
🔁
Carbone ◂ E. Alioski
Coaches
Mattia Croci-TortiMarc Schneider 
Recent form
FC LuganoWHDukagjini1-0
LHFC Vaduz1-2
WH1. FC Heidenheim1-0
WAFC Memmingen4-0
DHFC Rapperswil-Jona1-1
FC VaduzWHAtlètic Club Escaldes4-0
WAFC Lugano2-1
LHSCR Altach0-1
WHSC Austria Lustenau1-0
LHFC St. Gallen 18790-1
Where to watch
Betano
SRF info
SRF info
Match facts
Stadium
Cornaredo
City
Lugano
Referee
Alessandro Dudic
Kickoff
26 Jul, 14:30 UTC
Competition
Super League
Highlights & clips
FC Lugano
3-4-1-2 · 4-3-1-2
FC Vaduz
16
D. von Ballmoos
6.2
6
A. Papadopoulos
7.5
17
L. Mai
8.7
18
J. Bichsel
7.0
46
M. Zanotti
6.6
↑ 70'
25
U. Bislimi
7.7
8
A. Grgić
8.0
44
Carbone
↑ 90'
27
D. Dos Santos
6.2
↑ 60'
30
D. Moncada
6.8
↑ 59'
91
K. Behrens
7.2
↑ 70'
25
L. Schaffran
7.8
4
N. Hasler
7.3
↑ 57'
27
N. Lang
7.7
5
L. Berisha
6.6
7
D. Schwizer
6.5
↑ 80'
28
M. Cocić
6.9
↑ 66'
20
L. Mack
6.6
22
M. Eberhard
6.6
↑ 58'
11
L. Dalipi
7.2
9
M. Monsberger
5.8
39
D. Sorgić
6.7
↑ 46'
Substitutes
28GF. Gebhardt
7DE. Alioski↓ 90'7.4
4DD. Kelvin
21MY. Cimignani↓ 70'7.1
24ME. Pihlstrom↓ 70'6.6
14MA. Kendouci↓ 60'6.4
22MB. Castro
23MG. Ajdin
11FR. Steffen↓ 59'7.2
Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti
Substitutes
1GB. Büchel
29DM. Sawadogo↓ 80'6.3
14DM. Beeli↓ 57'6.2
6DD. Simani
37DL. Celentano
10MJ. Cabrera↓ 58'6.5
17MJ. Stark↓ 66'6.5
23MM. Hammerich
19FD. Đokić↓ 46'6.8
Coach: Marc Schneider
Top stats
49%Possession51%
2.03Expected goals (xG)0.71
22Total shots11
8Shots on target3
5Big chances1
9Corners3
Shots
10Shots off target8
4Blocked shots0
14Shots inside box9
8Shots outside box2
3Hit woodwork1
2Big chances scored0
3Big chances missed1
-0.53Goals prevented1.04
Attack
33Touches in box21
67Final third entries43
0Offsides1
10Free kicks14
3Fouled in final third2
Passing
410Passes441
332Accurate passes353
30/59 (51%)Long balls18/50 (36%)
9/27 (33%)Crosses2/14 (14%)
24Throw-ins19
Duels
53Duels47
32/63 (51%)Ground duels32/64 (50%)
24/43 (56%)Aerial duels19/43 (44%)
5/14 (36%)Dribbles4/13 (31%)
6Dispossessed8
Defending
17Tackles15
65Tackles won67
13Interceptions8
21Clearances25
59Recoveries51
Discipline
14Fouls10
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
0Big saves1
6Goal kicks18
1Punches1
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 18 bookmakers
Who winsLugano to win (DNB) 76% · 1.27 @ Betano
1X2Lugano to win 62% · 1.64 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 60% · 1.61 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 81% · 1.19 @ Pinnacle
BTTSBoth teams to score 57% · 1.63 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 60% · 1.60 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 63% · 1.50 @ Interwetten
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 52% · 1.82 @ Pinnacle
1X2Draw 22% · 4.80 @ 1xBet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 61% · 1.61 @ 1xBet
1X2Vaduz to win 17% · 6.68 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.59
FC Lugano ▲
3.95
Draw ▼
5.10
FC Vaduz ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.16
FC Lugano or Draw ▲
1.19
FC Lugano or FC Vaduz ▼
2.10
Draw or FC Vaduz ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.60
Yes ▼
2.21
No ▲
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
14.54
Under 0.50 ▲
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.17
Over 1.50 ▲
5.00
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.56
Over 2.50 ▲
2.35
Under 2.50 ▼
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.35
Over 3.50 ▼
1.56
Under 3.50 ▼
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.15
Over 4.50 ▲
1.22
Under 4.50 ▼
Draw No Betconsensus
1.20
FC Lugano ▼
3.42
FC Vaduz ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.06
Over 5.50
8.50
Under 5.50
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.14
Over 6.50 ▲
4.95
Under 6.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.30
Over 7.50 ▲
3.16
Under 7.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.54
Over 8.50 ▼
2.29
Under 8.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.91
Over 9.50 ▼
1.78
Under 9.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.47
Over 10.50 ▲
1.47
Under 10.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
3.36
Over 11.50 ▼
1.26
Under 11.50 ▼
1.7 – 1.3Expected goals
1-1Most likely score
No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.
Every market recommended rows highlighted
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano to win (DNB)Who wins | 76% | 76% | 1.2 | Overpriced | high |
| Lugano to win1X2 | 62% | 62% | 1.51 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 2.5 goalsGoals | 60% | 61% | 1.53 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 81% | 81% | 1.16 | Overpriced | high |
| Both teams to scoreBTTS | 57% | 57% | 1.62 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 60% | 60% | 1.55 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 10.5 cornersCorners | 63% | 63% | 1.47 | Overpriced | medium |
| Under 9.5 cornersCorners | 52% | 52% | 1.79 | Overpriced | low |
| Draw1X2 | 22% | 22% | 4.32 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 61% | 60% | 1.57 | Fair | medium |
| Vaduz to win1X2 | 17% | 17% | 5.53 | Overpriced | low |
Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: Vaduz to win (DNB) — we say 39%, they say 24%.
Probability vs league average
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 80% | +1% | Yes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1% | Yes |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 36% | +3% | Yes |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 60% | -3% | No |
| Home win | 62% | 44% | +18% | Yes |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | -4% | No |
| Away win | 17% | 30% | -13% | No |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
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