Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Match events
19'
F. Romero
39'
⚽
A. Vega
42'
⚽
A. Vega (pen)0–1
45'
⚽
0–1
45'
⚽
46'
🔁
B. Gutiérrez ◂ K. Castañeda
48'
⚽
Á. Sepúlveda
50'
Á. Sepúlveda
54'
R. Alvarado
56'
🔁
A. González ◂ R. Ledezma
59'
🔁
Helinho ◂ É. Gutiérrez
61'
J. Gallardo
68'
🔁
J. Carrillo ◂ O. Govea
70'
🔁
V. Guzmán ◂ A. Vega
74'
⚽
J. Gallardo · assist Helinho0–2
85'
🔁
R. Marín ◂ D. Campillo
86'
🔁
M. Gómez ◂ D. Aguirre
87'
🔁
F. Arce Jr. ◂ J. R. Angulo
87'
🔁
Bruno Méndez ◂ N. Castro
90'
⚽
0–2
90'
⚽
90'+6
J. Carrillo
Coaches
Gabriel MilitoAntonio Mohamed 
Recent form
CD GuadalajaraDCorrecaminos UAT0-0CD Guadalajara
LCD Guadalajara1-2Cruz Azul
DCruz Azul2-2CD Guadalajara
WCD Guadalajara2-0Tigres UANL
LTigres UANL3-1CD Guadalajara
CD TolucaDAtlante FC3-3CD Toluca
LCancún FC1-0CD Toluca
LCF Pachuca2-0CD Toluca
LCD Toluca0-1CF Pachuca
WCD Toluca4-1Club León
Where to watch
Prime Video
Prime Video
Prime Video
Prime Video
PeacockPrime VideoTelemundoTelemundo DeportesUniverso NowfuboTV
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Akron
City
Guadalajara
Referee
Daniel Quintero Huitrón
Kickoff
19 Jul, 01:07 UTC
Competition
Liga MX Apertura
CD Guadalajara
3-1-4-2 · 4-2-3-1
CD Toluca
1
R. Rangel
8.2
23
D. Aguirre
6.2
7
L. Romo
6.3
3
D. Campillo
6.6
28
F. González
6.7
37
R. Ledezma
6.8
6
O. Govea
6.6
19
K. Castañeda
6.9
5
B. González
6.1
25
R. Alvarado
7.3
9
Á. Sepúlveda
5.3
22
L. García
7.4
19
S. Simón
7.5
6
F. Pereira
8.4
25
E. López
7.1
20
J. Gallardo
7.3
5
F. Romero
6.6
35
É. Gutiérrez
6.8
10
J. R. Angulo
6.7
8
N. Castro
7.0
9
A. Vega
6.8
29
J. Díaz
6.8
Substitutes
11B. Gutiérrez6.234A. González6.333J. Carrillo6.817R. Marín6.624M. Gómez6.713Ó. Whalley4M. Tapias2J. Castillo18J. Perez16L. G. Rey
Coach: Gabriel Milito
Substitutes
11Helinho7.87V. Guzmán6.54Bruno Méndez6.924F. Arce Jr.6.71H. Gonzalez2D. Barbosa3A. Briseño17B. García13Luan191C. Carrillo
Coach: Antonio Mohamed
40%Possession60%
0.96Expected goals (xG)1.93
13Total shots15
4Shots on target10
1Big chances5
9Corners2
14Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
Model prediction BSD ML
Both Teams to ScoreBTTS Yes 45%
Total Goals 1.5Over 1.5 goals 83% · Pick: Over 1.5 goals
Total Goals 2.5Over 2.5 goals 40%
Total Goals 3.5Over 3.5 goals 27%