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Martin Varini
Club Necaxa
CF Monterrey
Club Necaxa
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1
CF Monterrey
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 3 clips
Player of the match
Match events
5'
R. Monreal · Foul
20'
S. Medina · Foul
27'
L. Faravelli · Foul
32'
R. Chávez · Foul
36'
C. Salcedo · Foul
Half-time · 0–0
46'
🔁
O. Pineda ◂ J. Corona
46'
🔁
E. Rodriguez ◂ R. Monreal
56'
⚽
J. Carranza · assist F. Méndez1–0
60'
🔁
D. Aceves ◂ G. Arteaga
60'
🔁
H. Cuypers ◂ D. Rossi
67'
⚽
L. Ocampos (pen)1–1
75'
🔁
M. Pedroza ◂ J. Torres
77'
🔁
L. Reyes ◂ L. Orellano
87'
🔁
M. Zaleta ◂ C. A. V. Tenorio
87'
🔁
R. C. Pineda ◂ L. Faravelli
Full-time · 2–1
90'
🔁
J. Valencia ◂ J. Ruiz
90'+1
⚽
J. Valencia · assist M. Zaleta2–1
90'+3
🔁
Uroš Đurđević ◂ J. Rodríguez
-5'
M. Varini · Argument
Coaches
Martin VariniMatías Almeyda 
Recent form
Club NecaxaWHAtlante FC2-1
DAAtlas FC0-0
WACorrecaminos UAT6-3
WHClub Atlético Morelia1-0
LACruz Azul1-4
CF MonterreyWHSantos Laguna3-2
DAAtlante FC1-1
WACancún FC4-1
LASantos Laguna0-3
WHClub Puebla2-1
Where to watch
FOX+
Fox Deportes
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Victoria
City
Aguascalientes
Referee
Ivan Antonio Lopez Sanchez
Kickoff
26 Jul, 23:00 UTC
Competition
Liga MX Apertura
Highlights & clips
Club Necaxa
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1
CF Monterrey
12
L. Jimenez
6.6
33
R. Martínez
6.2
20
F. Méndez
7.1
3
A. Oliveros
7.1
99
E. Rodriguez
7.1
↑ 46'
14
M. Zaleta
6.8
↑ 87'
6
D. Leyva
6.9
17
R. C. Pineda
6.8
↑ 87'
27
M. Pedroza
6.5
↑ 75'
90
J. Valencia
6.8
↑ 90'
9
J. Carranza
6.9
22
L. Cárdenas
8.9
2
R. Chávez
6.3
33
S. Medina
3.4
13
C. Salcedo
6.6
19
D. Aceves
6.2
↑ 60'
8
Ó. Torres
7.1
32
Uroš Đurđević
↑ 90'
21
L. Reyes
6.5
↑ 77'
25
O. Pineda
6.3
↑ 46'
7
L. Ocampos
7.6
99
H. Cuypers
6.5
↑ 60'
Substitutes
1GC. Andrade
88DC. A. V. Tenorio↓ 87'7.1
5DK. Naves
2DE. Martínez
10MJ. Ruiz↓ 90'6.9
8ML. Faravelli↓ 87'6.8
11MJ. Torres↓ 75'6.7
21MM. Espíndola
16MP. Pedraza
30FR. Monreal↓ 46'6.5
Coach: Martin Varini
Substitutes
31GC. Ramos
3DG. Arteaga↓ 60'6.5
4DV. Guzmán
17MJ. Corona↓ 46'6.6
10ML. Orellano↓ 77'6.6
30MJ. Rodríguez↓ 90'6.5
11MI. Fimbres
5MF. Ambríz
9FD. Rossi↓ 60'6.3
194FC. Reyes
Coach: Matías Almeyda
Top stats
65%Possession35%
2.92Expected goals (xG)1.03
18Total shots6
9Shots on target2
4Big chances2
4Corners1
Shots
6Shots off target2
3Blocked shots2
11Shots inside box4
7Shots outside box2
0Hit woodwork0
2Big chances scored1
2Big chances missed1
-0.11Goals prevented1.55
Attack
24Touches in box6
58Final third entries36
2Offsides2
14Free kicks20
6Fouled in final third5
Passing
436Passes239
365Accurate passes172
23/46 (50%)Long balls21/55 (38%)
5/14 (36%)Crosses2/8 (25%)
17Throw-ins10
Duels
48Duels52
33/72 (46%)Ground duels39/72 (54%)
16/31 (52%)Aerial duels15/32 (47%)
7/16 (44%)Dribbles5/13 (38%)
7Dispossessed6
Defending
14Tackles16
50Tackles won69
5Interceptions7
21Clearances22
39Recoveries34
Discipline
21Fouls14
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
0Big saves1
3Goal kicks13
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 69 bookmakers
Who winsMonterrey to win (DNB) 60% · 1.63 @ betfair
1X2Monterrey to win 45% · 2.27 @ 1xBet
BTTSBoth teams to score 61% · 1.62 @ betfair
CornersOver 9.5 corners 52% · 1.85 @ Novibet
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 58% · 1.71 @ betfair
CornersOver 8.5 corners 63% · 1.52 @ Unibet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 79% · 1.23 @ betfair
1X2Draw 26% · 3.95 @ betfair
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 58% · 1.68 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 63% · 1.55 @ soccerbet
1X2Necaxa to win 29% · 3.75 @ Novibet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.15
Club Necaxa ▲
3.59
Draw
2.08
CF Monterrey ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.68
Club Necaxa or Draw ▲
1.26
Club Necaxa or CF Monterrey
1.33
Draw or CF Monterrey
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.51
Yes
2.39
No ▼
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.03
Over 0.50 ▲
12.51
Under 0.50 ▼
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.17
Over 1.50
4.47
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.60
Over 2.50 ▲
2.24
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.48
Over 3.50 ▲
1.48
Under 3.50 ▼
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.65
Over 4.50 ▲
1.19
Under 4.50 ▼
Draw No Betconsensus
2.33
Club Necaxa ▲
1.55
CF Monterrey ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
17.00
Under 4.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.05
Over 5.50
9.50
Under 5.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.12
Over 6.50 ▼
5.50
Under 6.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.23
Over 7.50 ▲
3.66
Under 7.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.45
Over 8.50 ▲
2.51
Under 8.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.75
Over 9.50 ▼
1.95
Under 9.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.21
Over 10.50 ▲
1.57
Under 10.50 ▼
1.5 – 1.4Expected goals
1-1Most likely score
~11Expected corners
No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.
Every market recommended rows highlighted
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey to win (DNB)Who wins | 60% | 60% | 1.55 | Overpriced | medium |
| Monterrey to win1X2 | 45% | 45% | 2.08 | Overpriced | low |
| Both teams to scoreBTTS | 61% | 61% | 1.51 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 9.5 cornersCorners | 52% | 52% | 1.76 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 2.5 goalsGoals | 58% | 58% | 1.6 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 63% | 63% | 1.45 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 79% | 79% | 1.17 | Overpriced | high |
| Draw1X2 | 26% | 26% | 3.59 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 10.5 cornersCorners | 58% | 58% | 1.58 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 63% | 63% | 1.48 | Overpriced | medium |
| Necaxa to win1X2 | 29% | 29% | 3.15 | Overpriced | low |
Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: Necaxa to win (DNB) — we say 53%, they say 40%.
Probability vs league average
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 78% | +1% | Yes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +2% | Yes |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 38% | -1% | No |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 59% | +2% | Yes |
| Home win | 29% | 48% | -19% | No |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | +3% | Yes |
| Away win | 45% | 28% | +17% | Yes |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
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