CD Toluca vs Club Necaxa — preview

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Liga MX Apertura ·Mon 03 Aug

CD Toluca

01:05UTC

Upcoming

Club Necaxa

Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 29 bookmakers

Toluca 61%

22%

Necaxa 17%

Who winsToluca to win (DNB) 77% · 1.25 @ Betsson

1X2Toluca to win 61% · 1.56 @ Novibet

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 62% · 1.52 @ Novibet

BTTSBoth teams to score 59% · 1.61 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 9.5 corners 52% · 1.85 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 82% · 1.16 @ Betano

CornersOver 8.5 corners 64% · 1.53 @ Betway

1X2Draw 22% · 4.50 @ Bet365

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 59% · 1.65 @ Bwin

1X2Necaxa to win 17% · 5.90 @ Betsson

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 58% · 1.68 @ Bet365

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.52

CD Toluca

4.27

Draw ▲

5.40

Club Necaxa ▼

Double Chanceconsensus

1.14

CD Toluca or Draw

1.20

CD Toluca or Club Necaxa

2.41

Draw or Club Necaxa ▼

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.56

Yes

2.29

No ▲

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

16.18

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.15

Over 1.50

5.48

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.50

Over 2.50

2.58

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.20

Over 3.50

1.66

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

3.68

Over 4.50

1.27

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.21

CD Toluca

4.05

Club Necaxa ▼

Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus

1.01

Over 4.50

13.25

Under 4.50

Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus

1.04

Over 5.50

9.00

Under 5.50

Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus

1.11

Over 6.50

5.90

Under 6.50

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.24

Over 7.50

3.59

Under 7.50 ▲

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.45

Over 8.50 ▲

2.55

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.77

Over 9.50

1.92

Under 9.50 ▼

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.23

Over 10.50

1.58

Under 10.50 ▲

Full odds via API →

2.1 – 1.0Expected goals

2-0Most likely score

~10Expected corners

No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.

Every market recommended rows highlighted

Our call	How likely	Bookmakers say	Their odds	Price check	Confidence
Toluca to win (DNB)Who wins	77%	77%	1.21	Overpriced	high
Toluca to win1X2	61%	61%	1.52	Overpriced	medium
Over 2.5 goalsGoals	62%	63%	1.47	Overpriced	medium
Both teams to scoreBTTS	59%	59%	1.56	Overpriced	low
Over 9.5 cornersCorners	52%	52%	1.77	Overpriced	low
Over 1.5 goalsGoals	82%	82%	1.13	Overpriced	high
Over 8.5 cornersCorners	64%	64%	1.45	Overpriced	medium
Draw1X2	22%	22%	4.27	Overpriced	low
Under 10.5 cornersCorners	59%	59%	1.58	Overpriced	low
Necaxa to win1X2	17%	17%	5.4	Overpriced	low
Under 3.5 goalsGoals	58%	57%	1.64	Fair	low

Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: Under 3.5 goals — we say 66%, they say 57%.

Probability vs league average

Market	This match	League avg	Diff	More likely?
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4%	Yes
Over 2.5 goals	62%	56%	+6%	Yes
Over 3.5 goals	42%	38%	+4%	Yes
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0%	No
Home win	61%	48%	+13%	Yes
Draw	22%	23%	-1%	No
Away win	17%	28%	-11%	No

How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.

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