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Martin Varini
Club Necaxa
Club León
Club Necaxa
3-4-2-1 · 4-1-4-1
Club León
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
196444 EUR · live
Away
1.06 · implied 94.3%
63.7%
-30.6 vs price
Home
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
28.5%
+28.3 vs price
Draw
18.5 · implied 5.4%
8.1%
+2.7 vs price
Half time
1160 EUR · live
Away
4.8 · implied 20.8%
76.3%
+55.4 vs price
Draw
1.93 · implied 51.8%
16.7%
-35.1 vs price
Home
4.4 · implied 22.7%
6.9%
-15.8 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
79611 EUR · live
Over
1.7 · implied 58.8%
60.7%
+1.9 vs price
Under
2.42 · implied 41.3%
39.3%
-2.0 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
5150 EUR · live
Under
1.02 · implied 98.0%
92.0%
-6.1 vs price
Over
44.0 · implied 2.3%
8.0%
+5.7 vs price
14 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 4 clips
Player of the match
Match events
27'
⚽
D. Arcila0–1
Half-time · 0–1
46'
🔁
B. Colula ◂ I. Moreno
46'
🔁
J. Torres ◂ C. A. V. Tenorio
58'
K. Naves · Foul
60'
R. Echeverría · Violent conduct
60'
VAR
Card check · R. Echeverría
64'
🔁
R. Martínez ◂ K. Naves
64'
🔁
J. Domínguez ◂ J. Cortizo
64'
🔁
L. Valadez ◂ F. Beltrán
65'
⚽
M. Espíndola · assist J. Valencia1–1
65'
🔁
E. Rodriguez ◂ R. Monreal
65'
🔁
M. Zaleta ◂ L. Faravelli
72'
⚽
J. Domínguez · assist L. Valadez1–2
74'
🔁
S. Reyes ◂ S. Vegas
78'
🔁
M. Pedroza ◂ M. Espíndola
79'
D. Leyva · Foul
81'
B. Colula · Foul
85'
🔁
P. Bellón ◂ D. Arcila
Full-time · 1–2
Coaches
Martin VariniJavier Gandolfi 
Recent form
Club NecaxaLACD Toluca1-3
WHCF Monterrey2-1
WHAtlante FC2-1
DAAtlas FC0-0
WACorrecaminos UAT6-3
Club LeónWHCF Pachuca1-0
LAClub Tijuana0-1
LHAtlas FC2-3
WHCD Tapatío4-2
WHMineros de Zacatecas4-1
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Victoria
City
Aguascalientes
Kickoff
18 Aug, 01:00 UTC
Competition
Liga MX Apertura
Highlights & clips
Club Necaxa
3-4-2-1 · 4-1-4-1
Club León
12
L. Jimenez
7.0
33
R. Martínez
6.4
↑ 64'
4
A. Peña
7.0
20
F. Méndez
6.7
14
M. Zaleta
7.2
↑ 65'
6
D. Leyva
6.8
99
E. Rodriguez
6.7
↑ 65'
11
J. Torres
6.7
↑ 46'
27
M. Pedroza
6.3
↑ 78'
10
J. Ruiz
8.7
90
J. Valencia
6.6
23
O. García
7.5
4
B. Colula
6.4
↑ 46'
14
J. Romaña
6.7
3
J. Guevara
7.2
26
S. Reyes
6.7
↑ 74'
29
J. Rodríguez
6.7
8
J. Domínguez
7.8
↑ 64'
20
R. Echeverría
5.9
35
L. Valadez
6.6
↑ 64'
25
P. Bellón
6.7
↑ 85'
27
D. Cambindo
7.5
Substitutes
1GC. Andrade
88DC. A. V. Tenorio↓ 46'6.7
5DK. Naves↓ 64'6.4
15DD. Ochoa
21MM. Espíndola↓ 78'7.6
8ML. Faravelli↓ 65'6.6
17MR. C. Pineda
13MO. González
16MP. Pedraza
30FR. Monreal↓ 65'6.5
Coach: Martin Varini
Substitutes
12GJ. González
7DI. Moreno↓ 46'6.9
5DS. Vegas↓ 74'6.7
22DS. Santos
185DC. Mora
13MD. Arcila↓ 85'7.4
6MF. Beltrán↓ 64'7.2
16MJ. Cortizo↓ 64'6.8
203MJ. Lara
19FA. Alvarado
Coach: Javier Gandolfi
Top stats
61%Possession39%
1.22Expected goals (xG)0.97
25Total shots16
8Shots on target7
1Big chances4
7Corners3
Shots
11Shots off target4
6Blocked shots5
12Shots inside box7
13Shots outside box9
0Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored1
0Big chances missed3
-0.23Goals prevented0.44
Attack
32Touches in box21
72Final third entries44
14Free kicks15
6Fouled in final third4
Passing
432Passes282
375Accurate passes203
46/67 (69%)Long balls16/56 (29%)
9/37 (24%)Crosses3/12 (25%)
23Throw-ins13
Duels
46Duels54
37/83 (45%)Ground duels46/83 (55%)
11/22 (50%)Aerial duels11/22 (50%)
12/23 (52%)Dribbles9/13 (69%)
11Dispossessed9
Defending
13Tackles22
69Tackles won68
3Interceptions2
13Clearances36
50Recoveries42
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards1
Goalkeeping
5Saves7
2Big saves0
8Goal kicks16
1Punches2
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 63 bookmakers
CornersOver 9.5 corners 57%
CornersOver 8.5 corners 69%
BTTSBoth teams to score 58% · 1.73 @ betfair
1X2León to win 36% · 2.99 @ efbet.net
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 54% · 6.90 @ merkurxtip
1X2Draw 27% · 2.72 @ efbet.net
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 76% · 1.32 @ betfair
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 67% · 1.07 @ Novibet
1X2Necaxa to win 36% · 3.05 @ fonbet
Who winsNecaxa to win (DNB) 50% · 1.90 @ merkurxtip
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 53%
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.68
Club Necaxa ▲
3.33
Draw ▼
2.47
Club León ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.49
Club Necaxa or Draw ▲
1.30
Club Necaxa or Club León ▲
1.43
Draw or Club León ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.65
Yes ▲
2.12
No ▼
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.25
Over 1.50 ▲
3.61
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.84
Over 2.50 ▲
1.90
Under 2.50 ▼
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.05
Over 3.50 ▲
1.34
Under 3.50 ▼
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.24
Over 4.50
1.13
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.85
Club Necaxa ▲
1.86
Club León ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 12.50consensus
3.72
Over 12.50 ▲
1.21
Under 12.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 14.50consensus
8.80
Over 14.50 ▲
1.02
Under 14.50 ▼
European Handicap 2.00consensus
1.12
Club Necaxa +2 ▲
7.67
Draw +2 ▼
12.02
Club León -2 ▼
Odd / Even Goalsconsensus
1.83
E ▲
1.91
Over ▲
Total Cards 4.50consensus
1.80
Over 4.50
1.91
Under 4.50
Total Cards 5.50consensus
2.27
Over 5.50 ▼
1.58
Under 5.50 ▲
Total Cards 6.50consensus
3.20
Over 6.50 ▲
1.30
Under 6.50 ▼
Total Yellow Cards 4.50consensus
2.05
OVER
1.63
UNDER
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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