Arda Kardzhali 1-1 Cherno More Varna: Stats & xG

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Arda Kardzhali 1-1 Cherno More Varna.

90+5'

Unknown

Yellow card for Unknown (Cherno More Varna).

90+5'

I. Bounaas

Substitution, Cherno More Varna: M. Banev comes on for I. Bounaas.

90+3'

S. Kovachev

Attempt blocked. S. Kovachev (Arda Kardzhali), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

90+2'

L. Kotev

Attempt missed. L. Kotev (Arda Kardzhali), header. xG 0.08.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

89'

V. Lyubenov

Attempt missed. V. Lyubenov (Arda Kardzhali), left-footed shot. xG 0.31.

88'

M. Achi

Substitution, Cherno More Varna: G. Ventsislavov comes on for M. Achi.

87'

M. Paskalev

Yellow card for M. Paskalev (Arda Kardzhali).

87'

Z. Atanasov

Second yellow card for Z. Atanasov (Cherno More Varna), who is sent off.

82'

A. Donchev

Substitution, Cherno More Varna: I. Tasev comes on for A. Donchev.

82'

M. Barandas

Substitution, Cherno More Varna: A. Todorov comes on for M. Barandas.

82'

B. Beyhan

Substitution, Cherno More Varna: V. Panayotov comes on for B. Beyhan.

81'

G. Lazarov

Yellow card for G. Lazarov (Cherno More Varna).

79'

Z. Atanasov

Yellow card for Z. Atanasov (Cherno More Varna).

78'

V. Velev

Yellow card for V. Velev (Arda Kardzhali).

78'

S. Ivanov

Substitution, Arda Kardzhali: A. Kabov comes on for S. Ivanov.

74'

A. Vutov

Goal! Arda Kardzhali 1-1 Cherno More Varna. A. Vutov (Arda Kardzhali) scores.

70'

M. Barandas

Attempt blocked. M. Barandas (Cherno More Varna), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.06.

70'

G. Lazarov

Goal! Arda Kardzhali 0-1 Cherno More Varna. G. Lazarov (Cherno More Varna) scores.

69'

S. Ivanov

Off the woodwork! S. Ivanov (Arda Kardzhali), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.22.

69'

S. Kovachev

Attempt saved. S. Kovachev (Arda Kardzhali), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.19.

67'

A. Donchev

Attempt blocked. A. Donchev (Cherno More Varna), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

63'

P. Bachev

Substitution, Arda Kardzhali: G. Nikolov comes on for P. Bachev.

63'

A. A. Traoré

Substitution, Arda Kardzhali: V. Lyubenov comes on for A. A. Traoré.

62'

A. Vutov

Yellow card for A. Vutov (Arda Kardzhali).

57'

M. Barandas

Attempt missed. M. Barandas (Cherno More Varna), left-footed shot. xG 0.00.

48'

M. Achi

Attempt blocked. M. Achi (Cherno More Varna), right-footed shot. xG 0.48.

48'

A. Donchev

Attempt saved. A. Donchev (Cherno More Varna), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

46'

B. Karagaren

Substitution, Arda Kardzhali: A. Vutov comes on for B. Karagaren.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Arda Kardzhali 0-0 Cherno More Varna.

45'

1 minute of added time.

38'

M. Achi

Attempt blocked. M. Achi (Cherno More Varna), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.15.

31'

M. Barandas

Attempt blocked. M. Barandas (Cherno More Varna), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

24'

L. Kotev

Attempt missed. L. Kotev (Arda Kardzhali), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

23'

P. Bachev

Attempt saved. P. Bachev (Arda Kardzhali), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

17'

M. Achi

Attempt saved. M. Achi (Cherno More Varna), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

8'

S. Kovachev

Attempt missed. S. Kovachev (Arda Kardzhali), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

1'

Kick-off: Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna.

Where the money is

47510 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 20812 EUR · live

Draw 1.1 · implied 90.9%

46.6%

-44.3 vs price

Home 10.0 · implied 10.0%

36.6%

+26.6 vs price

Away 36.0 · implied 2.8%

16.8%

+14.1 vs price

Half time 471 EUR · live

Away 6.0 · implied 16.7%

61.1%

+44.4 vs price

Home 3.6 · implied 27.8%

35.9%

+8.1 vs price

Draw 1.67 · implied 59.9%

2.8%

-57.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 6700 EUR · live

Under 1.13 · implied 88.5%

73.5%

-15.0 vs price

Over 6.4 · implied 15.6%

26.5%

+10.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 597 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

94.8%

-4.2 vs price

Over 60.0 · implied 1.7%

5.0%

+3.4 vs price

11 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Match events

Half-time · 0–0

46' 🔁 A. Vutov ◂ B. Karagaren

62' A. Vutov

63' 🔁 V. Lyubenov ◂ A. A. Traoré

63' 🔁 G. Nikolov ◂ P. Bachev

70' ⚽ G. Lazarov0–1

74' ⚽ A. Vutov1–1

78' 🔁 A. Kabov ◂ S. Ivanov

78' V. Velev

79' Z. Atanasov

81' G. Lazarov

82' 🔁 V. Panayotov ◂ B. Beyhan

82' 🔁 A. Todorov ◂ M. Barandas

82' 🔁 I. Tasev ◂ A. Donchev

87' Z. Atanasov

87' M. Paskalev

88' 🔁 G. Ventsislavov ◂ M. Achi

Full-time · 1–1

90'⁺⁵ 🔁 M. Banev ◂ I. Bounaas

90'⁺⁵ Unknown

Coaches

Alexander Tunchev

Ilian Iliev

Recent form

Arda Kardzhali

LACSKA Sofia1-4

LHBotev Plovdiv2-3

WHBotev Vratsa2-0

WALokomotiv Plovdiv1-0

WHLokomotiv Sofia3-1

Cherno More Varna

DHLokomotiv Sofia2-2

LALokomotiv Plovdiv0-1

LACSKA Sofia1-3

WHFK Dunav Ruse3-1

LAFC CSKA 1948 Sofia1-4

About this match

**Arda's riding a hot streak at home, but Cherno More's drawn way too many times to be a pushover** — this is the classic "form vs chaos" matchup. 🔥

Arda Kardzhali have won three of their last five and look sharp on their own turf, though that 1-4 hammering from CSKA shows vulnerability. Cherno More Varna are a mess (1W 1D 3L), leaking goals left and right, but their H2H record is weirdly balanced — 10 draws in the last 20 clashes screams "expect a scrap."

Key storylines:

- **Arda's home form vs Cherno's fragile away defense** — the hosts should punish a side that just lost 0-1 and 1-3 on the road
- **P. Bachev and B. Karagaren** need to stay clinical; Cherno More give up chances constantly
- **D. Teles and V. Panayotov** will be stretched defending the wings against Arda's pressing game

Expected lineups:

- **Arda Kardzhali**: A. Gospodinov, V. Popov, V. Lyubenov, A. A. Traoré, L. Kotev, S. Kovachev, D. Yankov, A. Kabov, P. Bachev
- **Cherno More Varna**: K. Tomov, V. Kerchev, L. Squadrone, Z. Atanasov, D. Teles, V. Panayotov, M. Achi, C. Sidney, G. Lazarov

Prediction:

**Arda 2-1 Cherno More**. Home edge + poor visiting form = lean towards the hosts' third win in five. 📍

Where to watch

Diema Sport HD

Match facts

Stadium

Arena Arda

City

Kardzhali

Referee

Georgi Kabakov

4.96 yellows/match · 46 matches

Kickoff

19 Sep, 16:00 UTC

Competition

Parva Liga

Highlights & clips

Arda Kardzhali 4-1-4-1 · 4-2-3-1 Cherno More Varna

1 A. Gospodinov 6 V. Popov 24 M. Paskalev 5 V. Lyubenov 21 V. Velev 80 L. Kotev 10 S. Kovachev 8 D. Yankov 11 A. Kabov ↑ 78' 39 A. Vutov ↑ 46' 9 G. Nikolov 81 K. Tomov 14 A. Todorov ↑ 82' 3 Z. Atanasov 5 L. Squadrone 37 V. Kerchev 99 I. Bounaas 24 D. Teles 17 I. Tasev ↑ 82' 71 V. Panayotov 10 C. Sidney 19 G. Lazarov ⚽1

Substitutes

22GY. Georgiev 18DS. Vasilev 35DD. Velkovski 44DA. A. Traoré 99MB. Karagaren↓ 46' 91MS. Ivanov↓ 78' 26MB. Akandzha 16FP. Bachev

Coach: Alexander Tunchev

Substitutes

31GD. Hristov 8DA. Donchev↓ 82' 13DE. Nyagolov 26DBandaro 50DE. Tombak 11MM. Achi↓ 88' 18MP. Andreev 22MN. P. Kostadinov 29MB. Beyhan 7FM. Barandas 9FJ. Padilla

Coach: Ilian Iliev

Top stats

1.38Expected goals (xG)1.34

Discipline

3Yellow cards4

0Red cards1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Arda 53%

27%

Cherno More 20%

Who winsArda to win (DNB) 72% · 1.48 @ Betsson

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 57% · 1.11 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 74% · 1.21 @ 1xBet

1X2Arda to win 53% · 2.20 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 8.5 corners 50% · 1.81 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 62% · 1.47 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBTTS: No 54% · 1.22 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 77% · 1.23 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 27% · 2.37 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 68% · 2.45 @ William Hill

1X2Cherno More to win 20% · 4.90 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.72

Arda Kardzhali

3.30

Draw

4.50

Cherno More Varna

Double Chanceconsensus

1.16

Arda Kardzhali or Draw

1.25

Arda Kardzhali or Cherno More Varna

2.00

Draw or Cherno More Varna

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

2.00

Yes

1.73

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.06

Over 0.50

8.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.40

Over 1.50

2.88

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.20

Over 2.50

1.62

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

4.18

Over 3.50

1.20

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

8.75

Over 4.50

1.05

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.44

Arda Kardzhali

2.62

Cherno More Varna

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.55

Over 7.50

2.30

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.94

Over 8.50

1.79

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.53

Over 9.50

1.45

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

3.54

Over 10.50

1.21

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

5.36

Over 11.50

1.07

Under 11.50

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

2.33

Arda Kardzhali

2.10

Draw

5.50

Cherno More Varna

1X2 (2nd Half)consensus

2.12

Arda Kardzhali

2.35

Draw

4.75

Cherno More Varna

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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