Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv: Stats & xG

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

90+4'

E. Dost

Attempt missed. E. Dost (Lokomotiv Sofia), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

90+3'

S. Delev

Attempt blocked. S. Delev (Lokomotiv Sofia), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

90+1'

P. Umarbaev

Attempt missed. P. Umarbaev (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

85'

R. Daskalov

Yellow card for R. Daskalov (Lokomotiv Sofia).

85'

A. Taoui

Substitution, Lokomotiv Sofia: G. Minchev comes on for A. Taoui.

82'

I. Ivanov

Attempt missed. I. Ivanov (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

82'

K. Kostov

Substitution, Lokomotiv Sofia: R. Daskalov comes on for K. Kostov.

81'

P. Umarbaev

Attempt missed. P. Umarbaev (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.00.

81'

K. Stanoev

Substitution, Lokomotiv Sofia: E. Dost comes on for K. Stanoev.

79'

A. Taoui

Yellow card for A. Taoui (Lokomotiv Sofia).

75'

P. Umarbaev

Attempt missed. P. Umarbaev (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

74'

T. Pavlov

Substitution, Lokomotiv Plovdiv: A. Fase comes on for T. Pavlov.

74'

Y. Iliev

Substitution, Lokomotiv Plovdiv: M. Trdan comes on for Y. Iliev.

73'

A. Lyaskov

Attempt missed. A. Lyaskov (Lokomotiv Sofia), header. xG 0.15.

72'

K. Kostov

Yellow card for K. Kostov (Lokomotiv Sofia).

64'

T. Pavlov

Yellow card for T. Pavlov (Lokomotiv Plovdiv).

63'

I. Yordanov

Yellow card for I. Yordanov (Lokomotiv Sofia).

59'

A. Aralica

Substitution, Lokomotiv Sofia: K. Kati comes on for A. Aralica.

59'

M. Medfai

Substitution, Lokomotiv Sofia: I. Yordanov comes on for M. Medfai.

58'

C. Longville

Substitution, Lokomotiv Plovdiv: D. Ali comes on for C. Longville.

58'

R. Y. Leijten

Substitution, Lokomotiv Plovdiv: J. Lamy comes on for R. Y. Leijten.

57'

J. Burban

Attempt blocked. J. Burban (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), right-footed shot. xG 0.23.

55'

C. Longville

Attempt missed. C. Longville (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

54'

M. Medfai

Attempt blocked. M. Medfai (Lokomotiv Sofia), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

54'

A. Taoui

Attempt blocked. A. Taoui (Lokomotiv Sofia), right-footed shot. xG 0.16.

53'

C. Longville

Yellow card for C. Longville (Lokomotiv Plovdiv).

52'

S. Delev

Attempt blocked. S. Delev (Lokomotiv Sofia), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

52'

A. Aralica

Attempt blocked. A. Aralica (Lokomotiv Sofia), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

49'

A. Taoui

Attempt blocked. A. Taoui (Lokomotiv Sofia), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

45+7'

K. Kostov

Attempt missed. K. Kostov (Lokomotiv Sofia), header from a corner. xG 0.14.

45+5'

E. Ali

Substitution, Lokomotiv Plovdiv: P. Umarbaev comes on for E. Ali.

45'

4 minutes of added time.

45'

S. Delev

Attempt blocked. S. Delev (Lokomotiv Sofia), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

45'

A. Aralica

Attempt missed. A. Aralica (Lokomotiv Sofia), left-footed shot. xG 0.63.

42'

K. Kostov

Attempt saved. K. Kostov (Lokomotiv Sofia), right-footed shot. xG 0.32.

33'

A. Taoui

Attempt blocked. A. Taoui (Lokomotiv Sofia), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

33'

M. Medfai

Goal! Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv. M. Medfai (Lokomotiv Sofia) scores.

27'

A. Lyaskov

Yellow card for A. Lyaskov (Lokomotiv Sofia).

25'

R. Y. Leijten

Attempt missed. R. Y. Leijten (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), left-footed shot. xG 0.21.

22'

M. Medfai

Attempt missed. M. Medfai (Lokomotiv Sofia), header. xG 0.02.

21'

D. Kostadinov

Attempt missed. D. Kostadinov (Lokomotiv Sofia), header. xG 0.09.

14'

S. Delev

Attempt saved. S. Delev (Lokomotiv Sofia), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.

7'

R. Y. Leijten

Goal! Lokomotiv Sofia 0-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv. R. Y. Leijten (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) scores.

4'

R. Y. Leijten

Attempt saved. R. Y. Leijten (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), right-footed shot. xG 0.79.

1'

Kick-off: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

Where the money is

31177 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 6 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 15096 EUR · live

Draw 1.06 · implied 94.3%

62.6%

-31.8 vs price

Home 13.5 · implied 7.4%

22.0%

+14.6 vs price

Away 18.0 · implied 5.6%

17.2%

+11.7 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 8456 EUR · live

Under 1.04 · implied 96.2%

72.2%

-24.0 vs price

Over 26.0 · implied 3.8%

27.8%

+24.0 vs price

9 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Match events

7' ⚽ R. Y. Leijten0–1

27' A. Lyaskov

33' ⚽ M. Medfai1–1

Half-time · 1–1

45'⁺⁵ 🔁 P. Umarbaev ◂ E. Ali

53' C. Longville

58' 🔁 J. Lamy ◂ R. Y. Leijten

58' 🔁 D. Ali ◂ C. Longville

59' 🔁 I. Yordanov ◂ M. Medfai

59' 🔁 K. Kati ◂ A. Aralica

63' I. Yordanov

64' T. Pavlov

72' K. Kostov

74' 🔁 M. Trdan ◂ Y. Iliev

74' 🔁 A. Fase ◂ T. Pavlov

79' A. Taoui

81' 🔁 E. Dost ◂ K. Stanoev

82' 🔁 R. Daskalov ◂ K. Kostov

85' 🔁 G. Minchev ◂ A. Taoui

85' R. Daskalov

Full-time · 1–1

Coaches

Lyuboslav Penev

Dušan Kosič

Recent form

Lokomotiv Sofia

WAFK Spartak Varna1-0

LHCSKA Sofia0-2

DACherno More Varna2-2

LHLudogorets1-2

DAFK Dunav Ruse2-2

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

WHArda Kardzhali2-0

DHCSKA Sofia1-1

LABotev Plovdiv0-2

WHCherno More Varna1-0

LAFC CSKA 1948 Sofia0-2

About this match

**Two Lokomotivs, zero chill — this Sofia derby is pure chaos energy.** 🔥 Plovdiv's got the H2H edge (13 wins in 25), but they're the road team and Sofia's been sneaky solid at home when it matters.

Sofia's steadied the ship with a win over Spartak after that CSKA shocker, while Plovdiv just beat Arda but got embarrassed by Botev. Form's mixed on both sides, but **Sofia's home comforts** give them the slight lean here.

Key storylines:

- **Lokomotiv Sofia's attack** hinges on **C. C. Alves** and the supporting cast finding rhythm early
- **E. Ali and I. Ivanov** need to shield Plovdiv's backline against Sofia's pressing intensity
- Home fortress vibes: Sofia's record at the Lokomotiv Stadium could be the difference-maker

Expected lineups:

- **Lokomotiv Sofia**: M. Velichkov, A. Lyaskov, K. Kostov, R. Bidounga, Eirô, K. Stanoev, E. Dost, S. Delev, D. Kostadinov, M. E. Papazov, C. C. Alves
- **Lokomotiv Plovdiv**: B. Milosavljević, A. Chindriş, L. Ryan, T. Pavlov, A. Cova, E. Ali, I. Ivanov, S. Idriz, R. Y. Leijten, J. Lamy, C. Longville

Prediction:

**Sofia 2-1 Plovdiv.** Tight match, but the home crowd tips it.

Where to watch

Diema Sport HD

Match facts

Stadium

Lokomotiv Stadium

City

Sofia

Referee

Gero Piskov

5.27 yellows/match · 15 matches

Kickoff

10 Oct, 14:30 UTC

Competition

Parva Liga

Highlights & clips

Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

99 M. Velichkov 6 Eirô 22 R. Daskalov ↑ 82' 91 R. Bidounga 14 A. Lyaskov 20 D. Kostadinov 5 E. Dost ↑ 81' 8 I. Yordanov ↑ 59' 9 G. Minchev ↑ 85' 7 S. Delev 18 K. Kati ↑ 59' 1 B. Milosavljević 2 A. Cova 4 A. Chindriş 94 M. Brito 17 A. Fase ↑ 74' 22 I. Ivanov 39 P. Umarbaev ↑ 45' 3 D. Ali ↑ 58' 6 M. Trdan ↑ 74' 99 J. Lamy ↑ 58' 19 J. Burban

Substitutes

24GA. Lyubenov 3DK. Kostov↓ 82' 44DB. Katsarov 23DD. Ogaga 16MM. Medfai↓ 59' 31MK. Stanoev↓ 81' 11MA. Taoui↓ 85' 71MN. L. Penev 17MM. E. Papazov 26MK. Miloshev 29FA. Aralica↓ 59'

Coach: Lyuboslav Penev

Substitutes

40GP. Zovko 5DT. Pavlov↓ 74' 26DD. Kirashki 44DM. Petrović 12ME. Ali↓ 45' 11MR. Y. Leijten↓ 58' 10MY. Iliev↓ 74' 29FC. Longville↓ 58' 9FA. Velev 30FY. Dzhelepov 32FD. Mrankov

Coach: Dušan Kosič

Top stats

2.04Expected goals (xG)1.91

Discipline

5Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers

Lokomotiv Sofia 45%

28%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 26%

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 57% · 1.12 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 77% · 1.25 @ Bet365

Who winsLokomotiv Sofia to win (DNB) 63% · 1.52 @ Betsson

BTTSBTTS: No 52% · 1.25 @ Bet365

1X2Draw 28% · 2.30 @ Bet365

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 68% · 1.32 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 56% · 1.66 @ Pinnacle

1X2Lokomotiv Sofia to win 45% · 2.45 @ William Hill

CornersOver 8.5 corners 56% · 1.72 @ 1xBet

1X2Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win 26% · 4.00 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 68% · 2.40 @ William Hill

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.00

Lokomotiv Sofia

3.25

Draw

3.50

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Double Chanceconsensus

1.25

Lokomotiv Sofia or Draw

1.30

Lokomotiv Sofia or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.67

Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.90

Yes

1.82

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.06

Over 0.50

8.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.36

Over 1.50

2.90

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.20

Over 2.50

1.62

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

4.04

Over 3.50

1.20

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

8.25

Over 4.50

1.05

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.45

Lokomotiv Sofia

2.55

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.39

Over 7.50

2.65

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.71

Over 8.50

2.04

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.16

Over 9.50

1.63

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.91

Over 10.50

1.32

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

4.16

Over 11.50

1.14

Under 11.50

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

2.70

Lokomotiv Sofia

2.05

Draw

4.37

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1X2 (2nd Half)consensus

2.43

Lokomotiv Sofia

2.29

Draw

3.96

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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