Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
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**Pogoń's looking to bounce back with some serious teeth at home.** 🔥 Wieczysta are spiraling — just one win in five and a brutal derby loss to Wisła Kraków — so this screams opportunity for the hosts to climb the table.
Pogoń have been patchy too (three draws in their last five), but at least they've got the Stadion Miejski advantage and deeper squad depth. Wieczysta's defensive vulnerabilities got exposed hard in that 0-2 loss; Pogoń's attacking rotation should punish that.
Key storylines:
- **Pogoń's midfield engine** — P. Dziczek and K. Acosta need to control tempo and limit Wieczysta's turnovers
- **Wieczysta's back line under siege** — A. Milić, M. Wieteska, and K. Dankowski face relentless pressure from M. Juwara and J. Nsamé
- **Missing bite for both sides** — Pogoń without J. Pozo and R. Molnár, Wieczysta minus S. Feiertag; injury depth matters here
Expected lineups:
- **Pogoń Szczecin**: V. Cojocaru, L. Borges, D. Keramitsis, A. Szalai, L. Wahlqvist, P. Dziczek, K. Acosta, P. Mukairu, M. Juwara, J. Nsamé
- **Wieczysta Kraków**: A. Mikułko, M. Vojtko, A. Milić, M. Wieteska, K. Dankowski, T. Christensen, L. Piazón, C. Lungoyi, E. Koulouris
Prediction:
**Pogoń 2–0 Wieczysta** — home edge, form trend, and Wieczysta's defensive collapse give the hosts a comfortable lean.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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