KS Cracovia 3-1 Zagłębie Lubin: Stats & xG – Oct 10, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. KS Cracovia 3-1 Zagłębie Lubin.

90+18'

M. Nalepa

Attempt missed. M. Nalepa (Zagłębie Lubin), header from a throw-in. xG 0.04.

90+18'

M. Berte

Goal! KS Cracovia 3-1 Zagłębie Lubin. M. Berte (KS Cracovia) scores, assisted by V. Burlet.

90+16'

R. Yakuba

Attempt missed. R. Yakuba (Zagłębie Lubin), header from a set piece. xG 0.07.

90+14'

S. Łyczko

Attempt missed. S. Łyczko (Zagłębie Lubin), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

90+12'

S. Kerk

Attempt missed. S. Kerk (Zagłębie Lubin), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.07.

90+10'

A. Hasić

Substitution, KS Cracovia: K. Glik comes on for A. Hasić.

90+9'

F. Kocaba

Substitution, Zagłębie Lubin: M. Mlinarić comes on for F. Kocaba.

90+8'

A. Hasić

Goal! KS Cracovia 2-1 Zagłębie Lubin. A. Hasić (KS Cracovia) converts the penalty.

90+3'

A. Hasić

Attempt blocked. A. Hasić (KS Cracovia), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

90+3'

A. Hasić

VAR: no penalty for KS Cracovia.

90+1'

Kakabadze

Attempt blocked. Kakabadze (KS Cracovia), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

90'

11 minutes of added time.

90'

L. Ojrzynski

Yellow card for L. Ojrzynski (Zagłębie Lubin) for argument.

89'

M. Regula

Attempt saved. M. Regula (Zagłębie Lubin), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

85'

A. Hasić

Attempt blocked. A. Hasić (KS Cracovia), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

80'

M. Klich

Substitution, KS Cracovia: M. Berte comes on for M. Klich.

79'

M. Minchev

Attempt blocked. M. Minchev (KS Cracovia), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.06.

78'

Zagłębie Lubin

Corner, Zagłębie Lubin.

74'

S. Ltaief

Substitution, KS Cracovia: M. Minchev comes on for S. Ltaief.

73'

D. Čolina

Substitution, Zagłębie Lubin: D. Michalski comes on for D. Čolina.

73'

F. Szymczak

Substitution, Zagłębie Lubin: S. Łyczko comes on for F. Szymczak.

73'

J. Sypek

Substitution, Zagłębie Lubin: S. Kerk comes on for J. Sypek.

71'

S. Ltaief

Yellow card for S. Ltaief (KS Cracovia) for foul.

70'

D. Čolina

Yellow card for D. Čolina (Zagłębie Lubin) for foul.

68'

J. Ćorluka

Yellow card for J. Ćorluka (Zagłębie Lubin) for foul.

67'

M. Klich

Off the woodwork! M. Klich (KS Cracovia), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

67'

L. S. Nordås

Attempt missed. L. S. Nordås (KS Cracovia), header. xG 0.03.

66'

D. Čolina

Attempt missed. D. Čolina (Zagłębie Lubin), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

66'

D. Dąbrowski

Attempt blocked. D. Dąbrowski (Zagłębie Lubin), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

64'

M. Grzybek

Substitution, Zagłębie Lubin: J. Ćorluka comes on for M. Grzybek.

62'

D. Čolina

Attempt missed. D. Čolina (Zagłębie Lubin), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

61'

Zagłębie Lubin

Corner, Zagłębie Lubin.

57'

A. Hasić

Attempt saved. A. Hasić (KS Cracovia), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

56'

M. Nalepa

Attempt missed. M. Nalepa (Zagłębie Lubin), header from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

54'

A. Hasić

Goal! KS Cracovia 1-1 Zagłębie Lubin. A. Hasić (KS Cracovia) converts the penalty.

53'

Z. Alomerović

Yellow card for Z. Alomerović (Zagłębie Lubin) for other reason.

49'

G. Henriksson

Attempt blocked. G. Henriksson (KS Cracovia), header from a corner. xG 0.10.

49'

G. Henriksson

VAR: no penalty for KS Cracovia.

48'

Zagłębie Lubin

Corner, Zagłębie Lubin.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. KS Cracovia 0-1 Zagłębie Lubin.

45'

1 minute of added time.

41'

M. Nalepa

Attempt saved. M. Nalepa (Zagłębie Lubin), header from a throw-in. xG 0.03.

40'

KS Cracovia

Offside, KS Cracovia.

37'

M. Regula

Attempt missed. M. Regula (Zagłębie Lubin), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

36'

J. Sypek

Attempt missed. J. Sypek (Zagłębie Lubin), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

35'

Kakabadze

Attempt blocked. Kakabadze (KS Cracovia), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

33'

F. Kocaba

Attempt missed. F. Kocaba (Zagłębie Lubin), right-footed shot. xG 0.19.

31'

Zagłębie Lubin

Corner, Zagłębie Lubin.

29'

A. Al-Ammari

Yellow card for A. Al-Ammari (KS Cracovia) for foul.

27'

A. Ławniczak

Goal! KS Cracovia 0-1 Zagłębie Lubin. A. Ławniczak (Zagłębie Lubin) scores.

25'

G. Henriksson

Attempt saved. G. Henriksson (KS Cracovia), header from a throw-in. xG 0.08.

17'

G. Henriksson

Attempt missed. G. Henriksson (KS Cracovia), header from a set piece. xG 0.05.

13'

S. Ltaief

Attempt missed. S. Ltaief (KS Cracovia), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

12'

J. Sypek

Attempt saved. J. Sypek (Zagłębie Lubin), header. xG 0.03.

10'

M. Klich

Attempt saved. M. Klich (KS Cracovia), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

9'

J. Sypek

Attempt saved. J. Sypek (Zagłębie Lubin), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

4'

M. Nalepa

Attempt saved. M. Nalepa (Zagłębie Lubin), header from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

1'

Kick-off: KS Cracovia vs Zagłębie Lubin.

Where the money is

111786 EUR matched · captured 1 month ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 27947 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

44.8%

-54.2 vs price

Draw 15.5 · implied 6.5%

35.6%

+29.2 vs price

Away 990.0 · implied 0.1%

19.6%

+19.5 vs price

Half time 478 EUR · live

Draw 4.4 · implied 22.7%

59.1%

+36.3 vs price

Away 1.19 · implied 84.0%

29.5%

-54.5 vs price

Home 70.0 · implied 1.4%

11.3%

+9.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 23202 EUR · live

Under 1.36 · implied 73.5%

63.8%

-9.7 vs price

Over 3.8 · implied 26.3%

36.2%

+9.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 3403 EUR · live

Under 1.02 · implied 98.0%

96.4%

-1.6 vs price

Over 44.0 · implied 2.3%

3.6%

+1.3 vs price

10 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

27' ⚽ A. Ławniczak0–1

29' A. Al-Ammari · Foul

Half-time · 0–1

49' VAR Penalty check · G. Henriksson

53' Z. Alomerović · Other reason

54' ⚽ A. Hasić (pen)1–1

64' 🔁 J. Ćorluka ◂ M. Grzybek

68' J. Ćorluka · Foul

70' D. Čolina · Foul

71' S. Ltaief · Foul

73' 🔁 S. Kerk ◂ J. Sypek

73' 🔁 S. Łyczko ◂ F. Szymczak

73' 🔁 D. Michalski ◂ D. Čolina

74' 🔁 M. Minchev ◂ S. Ltaief

80' 🔁 M. Berte ◂ M. Klich

Full-time · 3–1

90' L. Ojrzynski · Argument

90'⁺³ VAR Penalty check · A. Hasić

90'⁺⁸ ⚽ A. Hasić (pen)2–1

90'⁺⁹ 🔁 M. Mlinarić ◂ F. Kocaba

90'⁺¹⁰ 🔁 K. Glik ◂ A. Hasić

90'⁺¹⁸ ⚽ M. Berte · assist V. Burlet3–1

Coaches

Bartosz Grzelak

Leszek Ojrzynski

Recent form

KS Cracovia

LHBruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza2-3

LAGKS Katowice2-3

LAWisła Płock1-3

LHGórnik Zabrze0-1

DAZnicz Pruszków1-1

Zagłębie Lubin

WHMiedź Legnica1-0

LHWisła Płock0-2

WARaków Częstochowa3-2

WHGKS Katowice2-1

DAWieczysta Kraków1-1

About this match

**Cracovia in freefall hosting a Lubin side that's found some rhythm** — this could get ugly fast. 🔴

Cracovia's winless drought (0W-1D-4L) has them looking shaky at the back, while **Zagłębie are clicking** with three wins in their last five and a penchant for scoring on the road. The H2H tilts toward Cracovia historically, but form flatters Lubin hard.

Key storylines:

- **Cracovia's defense** is leaking goals (shipped five in two recent home games) and without F. Marchwiński adds creative depth concerns
- **Zagłębie's attacking spark**, especially recent road form, gives them real teeth in Kraków
- **M. Klich anchoring** the midfield for Cracovia will be critical to any hope of steadying the ship

Expected lineups:

- **KS Cracovia**: S. Madejski, M. Perković, B. Traoré, G. Henriksson, D. Piła, M. Klich, A. Al-Ammari, A. Hasić, D. Kameri, M. Minchev, K. Zahiroleslam
- **Zagłębie Lubin**: Z. Alomerović, D. Čolina, A. Ławniczak, M. Nalepa, J. Ćorluka, M. Regula, F. Kocaba, D. Dąbrowski, S. Kerk, F. Szymczak, J. Sypek

Prediction:

**1-2 Zagłębie** — Lubin have the form edge and Cracovia look brittle enough to crack under pressure. ⚽

Where to watch

beIN Sports Xtra

Match facts

Stadium

Marshal Jozef Pilsudski Stadium

City

Kraków

Referee

Tomasz Marciniak

Kickoff

10 Oct, 12:45 UTC

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Highlights & clips

KS Cracovia 4-2-3-1 · 5-4-1 Zagłębie Lubin

13 S. Madejski 7.3 25 Kakabadze 7.0 4 G. Henriksson 7.1 61 B. Traoré 6.9 28 V. Burlet 7.1 20 K. Knap 6.4 6 A. Al-Ammari 6.3 15 K. Glik 6.7 ↑ 90' 90 M. Berte 6.6 ↑ 80' 17 M. Minchev 6.3 ↑ 74' 11 L. S. Nordås 6.6 33 Z. Alomerović 6.5 16 J. Ćorluka 6.7 ↑ 64' 5 A. Ławniczak 6.5 25 M. Nalepa 6.7 3 R. Yakuba 6.3 4 D. Michalski 6.1 ↑ 73' 44 M. Regula 6.7 88 M. Mlinarić 6.6 ↑ 90' 8 D. Dąbrowski 7.5 37 S. Kerk 6.7 ↑ 73' 19 S. Łyczko 6.2 ↑ 73'

Substitutes

77GJ. Chrapusta 91GA. Bobek 22DD. Baumgartner 39DM. Perković 14MA. Hasić↓ 90'8.2 43MM. Klich↓ 80'6.9 29MW. Dej 5MB. Selan 79MD. Piła 70MD. Kameri 47FS. Ltaief↓ 74'6.3 18FK. Zahiroleslam

Coach: Bartosz Grzelak

Substitutes

30GD. Hładun 6DD. Čolina↓ 73'6.8 13DM. Grzybek↓ 64'6.5 31DI. Orlikowski 39MF. Kocaba↓ 90'6.5 7MJ. Sypek↓ 73'6.4 26MJ. Kolan 21MS. Marek 27MP. Dziekonski 18FF. Szymczak↓ 73'6.3 11FA. Wozniak

Coach: Leszek Ojrzynski

Top stats

58%Possession42%

2.94Expected goals (xG)1.07

16Total shots16

6Shots on target6

3Big chances1

5Corners1

Shots

4Shots off target9

6Blocked shots1

8Shots inside box11

8Shots outside box5

2Hit woodwork0

3Big chances scored1

0.55Goals prevented-0.18

Attack

22Touches in box30

40Final third entries49

1Offsides0

12Free kicks14

3Fouled in final third2

Passing

433Passes318

356Accurate passes246

10/34 (29%)Long balls31/57 (54%)

6/21 (29%)Crosses6/12 (50%)

20Throw-ins18

Duels

51Duels49

35/68 (51%)Ground duels33/68 (49%)

21/42 (50%)Aerial duels21/42 (50%)

12/25 (48%)Dribbles2/9 (22%)

5Dispossessed5

Defending

12Tackles18

67Tackles won50

8Interceptions6

20Clearances32

43Recoveries41

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

1Big saves0

11Goal kicks9

1Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Cracovia 49%

27%

Zagłębie 24%

CornersOver 9.5 corners 56% · 1.64 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 68% · 1.36 @ 1xBet

1X2Cracovia to win 49% · 2.25 @ Bet365

Who winsCracovia to win (DNB) 62% · 1.43 @ Betsson

1X2Draw 27% · 2.50 @ Bet365

BTTSBoth teams to score 54% · 3.30 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 72% · 1.36 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 50% · 4.50 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 74% · 2.09 @ 1xBet

1X2Zagłębie to win 24% · 4.05 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 55% · 1.74 @ Pinnacle

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.86

KS Cracovia

3.40

Draw

3.75

Zagłębie Lubin

Double Chanceconsensus

1.22

KS Cracovia or Draw

1.27

KS Cracovia or Zagłębie Lubin

1.85

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.74

Yes

2.00

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.30

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

6.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.04

Over 0.50

10.05

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.26

Over 1.50

3.50

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.89

Over 2.50

1.91

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.24

Over 3.50

1.30

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

6.50

Over 4.50

1.10

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.40

KS Cracovia

2.75

Zagłębie Lubin

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.17

Over 7.50

4.10

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.36

Over 8.50

2.80

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.62

Over 9.50

2.19

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.02

Over 10.50

1.73

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.39

Over 11.50

1.55

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.3%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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