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Lech Poznań
Legia Warszawa
Lech Poznań
Lech Poznań
Lech Poznań
Legia Warszawa
Lech Poznań
Lech Poznań
Lech Poznań
Lech Poznań
Lech Poznań
Marek Papszun
Legia Warszawa
Lech Poznań
Legia Warszawa
3-4-3 · 4-2-3-1
Lech Poznań
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Legia Warszawa 1-2 Lech Poznań.
90+3'
Lech Poznań
Corner, Lech Poznań.
90+1'
Legia Warszawa
Offside, Legia Warszawa.
90'
3 minutes of added time.
89'
Lech Poznań
Corner, Lech Poznań.
87'
Goal! Legia Warszawa 1-2 Lech Poznań. L. Palma (Lech Poznań) scores, assisted by D. Håkans.
83'
Attempt saved. B. Viunnyk (Legia Warszawa), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.06.
82'
Lech Poznań
Corner, Lech Poznań.
74'
Goal! Legia Warszawa 1-1 Lech Poznań. B. Viunnyk (Legia Warszawa) scores, assisted by R. Augustyniak.
63'
Lech Poznań
Corner, Lech Poznań.
62'
Legia Warszawa
Offside, Legia Warszawa.
56'
Goal! Legia Warszawa 0-1 Lech Poznań. Y. Agnero (Lech Poznań) scores, assisted by L. Bengtsson.
49'
Lech Poznań
Corner, Lech Poznań.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Legia Warszawa 0-0 Lech Poznań.
45+3'
Lech Poznań
Corner, Lech Poznań.
45'
4 minutes of added time.
27'
Lech Poznań
Corner, Lech Poznań.
27'
Attempt saved. P. Rodríguez (Lech Poznań), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.03.
23'
Lech Poznań
Corner, Lech Poznań.
20'
Attempt missed. M. Skrzypczak (Lech Poznań), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.
20'
Lech Poznań
Corner, Lech Poznań.
17'
Off the woodwork! L. Bengtsson (Lech Poznań), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.
1'
Kick-off: Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
136844 EUR · live
Away
1.06 · implied 94.3%
59.5%
-34.9 vs price
Draw
13.5 · implied 7.4%
31.8%
+24.4 vs price
Home
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
8.9%
+8.8 vs price
Half time
477 EUR
Draw
2.5 · implied 40.0%
90.7%
+50.7 vs price
Home
3.35 · implied 29.9%
9.2%
-20.7 vs price
Away
3.3 · implied 30.3%
0.2%
-30.1 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
36421 EUR · live
Under
1.34 · implied 74.6%
59.2%
-15.4 vs price
Over
3.75 · implied 26.7%
40.8%
+14.1 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
28 EUR
Over
6.2 · implied 16.1%
100.0%
+83.9 vs price
12 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
14'
🔁
Y. Agnero ◂ M. Ishak
15'
P. Wszołek · Foul
29'
🔁
M. Szczepaniak ◂ R. Adamski
Half-time · 0–0
46'
🔁
R. Vinagre ◂ P. Wszołek
56'
⚽
Y. Agnero · assist L. Bengtsson0–1
60'
T. Yegbe · Foul
66'
L. Bengtsson · Foul
67'
🔁
F. Jagiełło ◂ P. Rodríguez
67'
🔁
L. Palma ◂ P. Wålemark
67'
🔁
S. Fukuda ◂ K. Chodyna
67'
🔁
B. Viunnyk ◂ M. Ševčík
67'
🔁
D. Håkans ◂ L. Bengtsson
71'
B. Kapustka · Foul
74'
⚽
B. Viunnyk · assist R. Augustyniak1–1
81'
🔁
G. Berggren ◂ A. Kozubal
85'
🔁
D. Szymański ◂ W. Urbański
87'
⚽
L. Palma · assist D. Håkans1–2
Full-time · 1–2
Coaches
Marek PapszunNiels Frederiksen 
Recent form
Legia WarszawaDAKS Cracovia1-1
WHWisła Kraków2-0
WHMKS Korona Kielce5-1
WAZagłębie Sosnowiec4-2
WAJagiellonia Białystok3-1
Lech PoznańDHSunderland1-1
WHMKS Korona Kielce6-1
LHBayer 04 Leverkusen0-4
WAŚląsk Wrocław4-1
DHEnergie Cottbus2-2
About this match
**Legia's rolling through October like they own the place, and Lech are coming to spoil the party with a hobbled squad.** This is a **Warsaw vs. Poznań** heavyweight clash with the hosts in seriously hot form. 🔥
Legia have won 4 of their last 5 and put five past Korona Kielce at home; Lech are steady but inconsistent (2W, 2D, 1L), and they're missing five key players including Douglas and Gholizadeh. The H2H favors Legia big time (20 wins to 14 over 46 matches).
Key storylines:
- **Legia's 3-4-3 at home** has been a fortress — that midfield trio of Wszołek, Kapustka, and Arreiol is pressing and creating at will.
- **Lech's injury crisis** strips them of crucial depth; Agnero and Ishak will have to do heavy lifting up top without backup options.
- **Head-to-head history** leans Warsaw hard — this isn't a surprise venue disadvantage for Poznań, it's a trend.
Expected lineups:
- **Legia Warszawa**: O. Hindrich, R. Augustyniak, K. Piątkowski, R. Vinagre, P. Wszołek, B. Kapustka, H. Arreiol, K. Chodyna
- **Lech Poznań**: M. Lis, J. Pereira, M. Gurgul, T. Yegbe, P. Rodríguez, R. Murawski, M. Ishak, Y. Agnero
Prediction:
**Legia 2–0 Lech.** Home form is too strong, Poznań's squad depth is stretched, and Warsaw's got the edge all over the pitch.
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Match facts
Stadium
Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie
City
Warsaw
Kickoff
25 Oct, 16:30 UTC
Competition
Ekstraklasa
Highlights & clips
Legia Warszawa
3-4-3 · 4-2-3-1
Lech Poznań
89
O. Hindrich
6.5
91
K. Piątkowski
7.3
8
R. Augustyniak
8.5
5
R. Deziel Jr.
6.2
19
R. Vinagre
6.0
↑ 46'
4
D. Szymański
6.4
↑ 85'
67
B. Kapustka
6.7
2
S. Fukuda
6.4
↑ 67'
27
B. Viunnyk
7.1
↑ 67'
79
Ł. Zjawiński
6.4
17
M. Szczepaniak
6.4
↑ 29'
1
M. Lis
7.4
2
J. Pereira
7.2
72
M. Skrzypczak
6.7
59
T. Yegbe
6.7
15
M. Gurgul
6.9
22
R. Murawski
6.8
5
G. Berggren
6.7
↑ 81'
77
L. Palma
6.7
↑ 67'
11
D. Håkans
6.8
↑ 67'
24
F. Jagiełło
6.3
↑ 67'
7
Y. Agnero
7.0
↑ 14'
Top stats
56%Possession44%
1.46Expected goals (xG)1.23
17Total shots11
9Shots on target5
3Big chances2
9Corners5
Shots
4Shots off target3
4Blocked shots3
11Shots inside box7
6Shots outside box4
1Hit woodwork1
1Big chances scored2
2Big chances missed0
-0.71Goals prevented0.74
Attack
29Touches in box21
71Final third entries36
2Offsides0
12Free kicks15
1Fouled in final third3
Passing
479Passes381
405Accurate passes309
28/49 (57%)Long balls17/45 (38%)
6/26 (23%)Crosses3/11 (27%)
15Throw-ins11
Duels
45Duels55
30/72 (42%)Ground duels42/72 (58%)
8/13 (62%)Aerial duels5/13 (38%)
8/14 (57%)Dribbles15/19 (79%)
7Dispossessed6
Defending
10Tackles13
70Tackles won31
11Interceptions9
10Clearances33
58Recoveries55
Discipline
15Fouls12
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
0Big saves3
2Goal kicks5
0Punches2
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers
BTTSBoth teams to score 60% · 2.76 @ 1xBet
1X2Lech to win 36% · 2.80 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 56% · 3.80 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 78% · 1.87 @ 1xBet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 60% · 1.48 @ Pinnacle
1X2Draw 27% · 2.60 @ Bet365
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 63% · 1.62 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 52% · 2.01 @ Pinnacle
Who winsLegia to win (DNB) 54% · 1.86 @ Novibet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 65% · 1.48 @ Pinnacle
1X2Legia to win 37% · 2.82 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.50
Legia Warszawa
3.44
Draw
2.50
Lech Poznań
Double Chanceconsensus
1.46
Legia Warszawa or Draw
1.29
Legia Warszawa or Lech Poznań
1.44
Draw or Lech Poznań
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.55
Yes
2.30
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
5.00
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
4.80
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
11.50
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.17
Over 1.50
4.35
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.67
Over 2.50
2.13
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.71
Over 3.50
1.40
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.95
Over 4.50
1.13
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.85
Legia Warszawa
1.85
Lech Poznań
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.23
Over 7.50
3.50
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.46
Over 8.50
2.55
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.79
Over 9.50
1.98
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.22
Over 10.50
1.60
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.80
Over 11.50
1.37
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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