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Takashi Kiyama
Fagiano Okayama
V-Varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
V-Varen Nagasaki
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
154424 EUR · live
Home
1.04 · implied 96.2%
89.1%
-7.0 vs price
Draw
23.0 · implied 4.3%
6.9%
+2.6 vs price
Away
300.0 · implied 0.3%
4.1%
+3.8 vs price
Half time
1550 EUR · live
Away
8.2 · implied 12.2%
48.1%
+35.9 vs price
Home
3.3 · implied 30.3%
43.0%
+12.7 vs price
Draw
1.74 · implied 57.5%
8.8%
-48.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
65346 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
84.3%
-14.7 vs price
Over
120.0 · implied 0.8%
15.7%
+14.9 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
2523 EUR · live
Under
1.03 · implied 97.1%
90.0%
-7.1 vs price
Over
27.0 · implied 3.7%
10.0%
+6.2 vs price
13 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
23'
🔁
A. Ikki ◂ Eduardo
Half-time · 0–0
46'
🔁
T. Santana ◂ Y. Ryogo
54'
⚽
Lucao · assist E. Miyamoto1–0
64'
🔁
T. Matsumoto ◂ Y. Hotaru
65'
🔁
L. Gaúcho ◂ Lucao
65'
🔁
Y. Shunya ◂ M. Sekiguchi
74'
Y. Shunya · Foul
75'
🔁
J. Nishikawa ◂ S. Na
76'
🔁
K. Ichimi ◂ A. Esaka
81'
🔁
K. Rei-Jin ◂ I. Yuto
Full-time · 1–0
90'
🔁
I. Shu ◂ K. Shirai
90'
🔁
I. Fujita ◂ E. Miyamoto
Coaches
Takashi KiyamaTakuya Takagi 
Recent form
Fagiano OkayamaLACerezo Osaka1-2
LAFC Schalke 041-3
LASV Werder Bremen0-2
WHFC Kharkiv2-1
LASC Paderborn 071-3
V-Varen NagasakiWHKyoto Sanga FC2-1
LANEC Nijmegen1-3
WAMito Hollyhock1-0
WHMito Hollyhock1-0
LAKyoto Sanga FC0-1
Match facts
Stadium
JFE Harenokuni Stadium
City
Okayama
Kickoff
15 Aug, 09:55 UTC
Competition
J1 League
Highlights & clips
Fagiano Okayama
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
V-Varen Nagasaki
1
L. Moser
6.6
6
H. Omori
7.2
48
Y. Tatsuta
7.2
43
Y. Suzuki
7.2
24
I. Fujita
↑ 90'
5
I. Shu
↑ 90'
80
O. Alionço
6.9
88
T. Yamane
6.7
66
J. Nishikawa
6.6
↑ 75'
22
K. Ichimi
6.4
↑ 76'
9
L. Gaúcho
6.5
↑ 65'
1
G. Masaaki
6.0
50
S. Ryosuke
6.9
29
A. Ikki
7.1
↑ 23'
25
T. Ominami
6.4
23
Y. Shunya
6.6
↑ 65'
34
T. Matsumoto
6.6
↑ 64'
24
R. Yamada
6.9
22
O. Hijiri
7.1
41
M. Hasegawa
6.7
39
K. Rei-Jin
6.5
↑ 81'
9
T. Santana
6.1
↑ 46'
Substitutes
13GS. Matsuda
41ME. Miyamoto↓ 90'7.1
51MK. Shirai↓ 90'6.7
79MN. Browne
33MY. Kamiya
44MS. Mori
99FLucao↓ 65'7.8
8FA. Esaka↓ 76'7.1
10FS. Na↓ 75'6.5
Coach: Takashi Kiyama
Substitutes
13GH. Go
4DEduardo↓ 23'6.8
45DR. Hyeong-Jun
5MY. Hotaru↓ 64'6.5
3MM. Sekiguchi↓ 65'6.3
21MD. Pituca
19MS. Takashi
18FY. Ryogo↓ 46'6.5
8FI. Yuto↓ 81'6.3
Coach: Takuya Takagi
Top stats
43%Possession57%
1.1Expected goals (xG)0.3
22Total shots3
3Shots on target0
2Big chances1
5Corners1
Shots
15Shots off target3
4Blocked shots0
11Shots inside box3
11Shots outside box0
0Hit woodwork1
1Big chances scored0
1Big chances missed1
Attack
30Touches in box9
74Final third entries52
2Offsides4
10Free kicks12
2Fouled in final third0
Passing
367Passes522
269Accurate passes411
21/59 (36%)Long balls20/65 (31%)
8/36 (22%)Crosses2/12 (17%)
27Throw-ins21
Duels
52Duels48
22/43 (51%)Ground duels21/43 (49%)
20/38 (53%)Aerial duels18/38 (47%)
4/10 (40%)Dribbles2/7 (29%)
1Dispossessed3
Defending
8Tackles7
63Tackles won100
15Interceptions9
24Clearances37
44Recoveries34
Discipline
12Fouls10
0Yellow cards1
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
3Goal kicks17
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 69 bookmakers
CornersOver 9.5 corners 51% · 1.83 @ Betway
CornersOver 8.5 corners 63% · 1.50 @ Interwetten
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 54% · 1.09 @ forbet
1X2Draw 29% · 2.75 @ fonbet
Who winsOkayama to win (DNB) 60% · 1.34 @ kto
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 73% · 1.04 @ Novibet
1X2Okayama to win 44% · 2.42 @ efbet.net
BTTSBoth teams to score 50% · 2.08 @ betfair
1X2Nagasaki to win 27% · 5.60 @ betcity
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 70% · 1.39 @ efbet.net
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 60% · 1.62 @ Novibet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.59
Fagiano Okayama
3.79
Draw
5.39
V-Varen Nagasaki ▲
Double Chanceconsensus
1.14
Fagiano Okayama or Draw ▼
1.25
Fagiano Okayama or V-Varen Nagasaki ▼
2.21
Draw or V-Varen Nagasaki
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.95
Yes
1.77
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.05
Over 0.50
9.05
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.29
Over 1.50
3.32
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.95
Over 2.50
1.79
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.35
Over 3.50
1.29
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
6.65
Over 4.50
1.09
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.22
Fagiano Okayama
3.97
V-Varen Nagasaki
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
12.50
Under 4.50
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.05
Over 5.50
10.00
Under 5.50
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.12
Over 6.50
5.40
Under 6.50
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.24
Over 7.50
3.59
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.45
Over 8.50
2.53
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.78
Over 9.50
1.91
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.25
Over 10.50
1.54
Under 10.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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