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Pablo Machin
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-Pulse
Cerezo Osaka
3-4-2-1 · 4-3-3
Shimizu S-Pulse
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Half time
377 EUR · live
Draw
1.65 · implied 60.6%
45.7%
-14.9 vs price
Home
3.85 · implied 26.0%
37.5%
+11.5 vs price
Away
5.1 · implied 19.6%
16.5%
-3.1 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
35262 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
86.6%
-12.4 vs price
Over
70.0 · implied 1.4%
13.8%
+12.4 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
6071 EUR · live
Under
1.02 · implied 98.0%
96.7%
-1.4 vs price
Over
44.0 · implied 2.3%
3.3%
+1.0 vs price
12 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
Half-time · 0–0
45'+2
O. Se-Hun · Foul
46'
🔁
Y. Komi ◂ S. Kagawa
48'
S. Sakuragawa · Argument
51'
S. Hatanaka · Foul
57'
🔁
K. Koizumi ◂ Y. Shimamoto
58'
🔁
T. Andrade ◂ Y. Yokoyama
62'
⚽
T. Andrade · assist J. Irvine1–0
63'
M. Brunetti · Argument
66'
🔁
Capixaba ◂ T. Fujii
66'
🔁
K. Kosuke ◂ O. Se-Hun
66'
🔁
Dieguinho ◂ M. Yumiba
76'
🔁
S. Hasukawa ◂ S. Park
77'
🔁
L. Fernandes ◂ S. Sakuragawa
Full-time · 1–0
90'
🔁
P. Sabbag ◂ Y. Komi
90'
🔁
K. Noborizato ◂ A. Ohata
Coaches
Pablo MachinTakayuki Yoshida 
Recent form
Cerezo OsakaLAAvispa Fukuoka0-3
WHFagiano Okayama2-1
WHBorussia Dortmund1-0
WHTochigi City FC1-0
WAFC Tokyo3-1
Shimizu S-PulseWHShonan Bellmare1-0
LHYokohama F. Marinos0-1
WANagoya Grampus1-0
WAKarlsruher SC3-1
WAPolissya Zhytomyr3-1
Where to watch
DAZN
Match facts
Stadium
Yodokou Sakura Stadium
City
Osaka
Kickoff
22 Aug, 10:00 UTC
Competition
J1 League
Highlights & clips
Cerezo Osaka
3-4-2-1 · 4-3-3
Shimizu S-Pulse
23
K. Nakamura
8.0
27
D. Cools
7.2
44
S. Hatanaka
7.2
4
R. Inoue
8.2
2
T. Nakamura
7.2
36
J. Irvine
7.8
10
S. Tanaka
7.3
6
K. Noborizato
↑ 90'
41
Y. Komi
6.5
↑ 46'
11
T. Andrade
7.8
↑ 58'
77
L. Fernandes
6.6
↑ 77'
16
T. Umeda
6.1
24
H. Sugai
6.3
4
S. Hasukawa
6.9
↑ 76'
15
Y. Honda
6.5
25
M. Brunetti
7.2
37
K. Koizumi
6.7
↑ 57'
7
Capixaba
6.6
↑ 66'
13
R. Germain
6.4
49
K. Kitagawa
6.3
2
Dieguinho
6.6
↑ 66'
19
K. Kosuke
6.3
↑ 66'
Substitutes
31GK. Abe
66DA. Ohata↓ 90'7.0
16DH. Okuda
97DT. Takahashi
8MS. Kagawa↓ 46'6.7
14MY. Yokoyama↓ 58'6.6
28MK. Okazawa
9FS. Sakuragawa↓ 77'6.4
19FP. Sabbag↑ 90'
Coach: Pablo Machin
Substitutes
1GY. Oki
14DS. Park↓ 76'6.8
28DY. Yoshida
70DS. Takagi
17MM. Yumiba↓ 66'6.8
47MY. Shimamoto↓ 57'6.6
50MT. Fujii↓ 66'6.4
21MK. Matsuzaki
9FO. Se-Hun↓ 66'6.6
Coach: Takayuki Yoshida
Top stats
58%Possession42%
0.85Expected goals (xG)2.12
13Total shots10
5Shots on target3
1Big chances4
7Corners6
Shots
4Shots off target4
4Blocked shots3
5Shots inside box9
8Shots outside box1
0Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored0
0Big chances missed4
Attack
18Touches in box22
72Final third entries73
4Offsides4
13Free kicks10
2Fouled in final third0
Passing
482Passes343
370Accurate passes242
39/84 (46%)Long balls26/75 (35%)
3/22 (14%)Crosses9/24 (38%)
18Throw-ins23
Duels
57Duels43
26/43 (60%)Ground duels17/43 (40%)
29/54 (54%)Aerial duels25/54 (46%)
1/5 (20%)Dribbles1/5 (20%)
4Dispossessed8
Defending
12Tackles8
58Tackles won75
4Interceptions9
35Clearances42
35Recoveries40
Discipline
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
0Big saves2
7Goal kicks10
1Punches1
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 68 bookmakers
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 69% · 4.33 @ 888Sport
BTTSBoth teams to score 65% · 3.00 @ 10bet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 86% · 2.01 @ 1xBet
CornersOver 9.5 corners 53% · 1.79 @ Novibet
1X2Cerezo Osaka to win 52% · 2.62 @ merkurxtip
CornersOver 8.5 corners 64% · 1.47 @ Unibet
Who winsCerezo Osaka to win (DNB) 58% · 1.70 @ merkurxtip
1X2Shimizu to win 27% · 3.33 @ granmadrid
1X2Draw 21% · 2.65 @ fonbet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 58% · 1.68 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 52% · 1.39 @ msport
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.22
Cerezo Osaka ▲
3.36
Draw ▲
3.03
Shimizu S-Pulse ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.34
Cerezo Osaka or Draw
1.30
Cerezo Osaka or Shimizu S-Pulse ▲
1.60
Draw or Shimizu S-Pulse
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.64
Yes
2.12
No ▼
Home Win to Nilconsensus
4.00
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
5.50
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.03
Over 0.50
10.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.24
Over 1.50
3.65
Under 1.50 ▲
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.80
Over 2.50 ▼
1.94
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.92
Over 3.50 ▼
1.36
Under 3.50 ▲
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.75
Over 4.50
1.12
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.61
Cerezo Osaka
2.19
Shimizu S-Pulse
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.12
Over 6.50
5.50
Under 6.50
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.24
Over 7.50
3.60
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.44
Over 8.50
2.55
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.73
Over 9.50
2.00
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.20
Over 10.50
1.57
Under 10.50
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
Over 1.5 goals
✗
86% confidence
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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