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V-Varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
Takuya Takagi
V-Varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
V-Varen Nagasaki
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Cerezo Osaka
Commentary
90'
Full-time. V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 Cerezo Osaka.
90+6'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Offside, V-Varen Nagasaki.
90'
5 minutes of added time.
82'
Cerezo Osaka
Corner, Cerezo Osaka.
77'
Attempt blocked. D. Pituca (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.
77'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
76'
Attempt blocked. T. Matsumoto (V-Varen Nagasaki), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.22.
76'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
69'
Cerezo Osaka
Corner, Cerezo Osaka.
67'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Offside, V-Varen Nagasaki.
66'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Offside, V-Varen Nagasaki.
62'
Cerezo Osaka
Corner, Cerezo Osaka.
56'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Offside, V-Varen Nagasaki.
54'
Attempt blocked. T. Santana (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.10.
51'
Goal! V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 Cerezo Osaka. L. Fernandes (Cerezo Osaka) converts the penalty.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 Cerezo Osaka.
45'
4 minutes of added time.
43'
Off the woodwork! M. Jesus (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.
42'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
34'
Goal! V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 Cerezo Osaka. M. Jesus (V-Varen Nagasaki) scores, assisted by O. Hijiri.
33'
Attempt missed. T. Santana (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.
32'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
25'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Offside, V-Varen Nagasaki.
25'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
18'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Offside, V-Varen Nagasaki.
9'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
1'
Kick-off: V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
52932 EUR · live
Home
5.2 · implied 19.2%
51.7%
+32.5 vs price
Away
4.3 · implied 23.3%
29.2%
+5.9 vs price
Draw
1.75 · implied 57.1%
19.1%
-38.0 vs price
Half time
1031 EUR · live
Home
1.01 · implied 99.0%
89.8%
-9.2 vs price
Draw
7.2 · implied 13.9%
7.7%
-6.2 vs price
Away
34.0 · implied 2.9%
2.3%
-0.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
58028 EUR · live
Under
1.03 · implied 97.1%
72.5%
-24.6 vs price
Over
14.0 · implied 7.1%
27.6%
+20.5 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
4473 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
92.0%
-7.1 vs price
Over
55.0 · implied 1.8%
8.1%
+6.2 vs price
10 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
17'
R. Yamada · Foul
17'
🔁
J. Hernández ◂ S. Hatanaka
34'
⚽
M. Jesus · assist O. Hijiri1–0
41'
J. Irvine · Foul
Half-time · 1–0
48'
VAR
Penalty check · K. Okazawa
50'
Y. Shunya · Foul
51'
⚽
L. Fernandes (pen)1–1
58'
🔁
D. Pituca ◂ R. Yamada
58'
🔁
A. Masuyama ◂ Y. Shunya
68'
K. Nakamura · Time wasting
73'
🔁
T. Matsumoto ◂ T. Santana
77'
🔁
T. Andrade ◂ L. Fernandes
82'
🔁
Y. Ryogo ◂ M. Jesus
83'
🔁
K. Doi ◂ A. Ikki
84'
D. Cools · Foul
88'
🔁
S. Uejo ◂ K. Okazawa
Full-time · 1–1
Coaches
Takuya TakagiPablo Machin 
Recent form
V-Varen NagasakiWHNagoya Grampus2-0
LAVissel Kobe1-3
DHGamba Osaka2-2
LHFC Tokyo0-3
WHEhime FC3-2
Cerezo OsakaLASanfrecce Hiroshima1-6
DHTokyo Verdy0-0
WHKashiwa Reysol2-0
LAVissel Kobe0-1
WHFC Gifu3-1
About this match
**Cerezo come to Nagasaki as heavy road favorites**, and for good reason — they've absolutely dominated this fixture in recent years. Still, both sides are inconsistent right now, which makes this a proper pick 'em on paper. 🔥
V-Varen just hammered Nagoya but got torn apart by Vissel; Cerezo bounced back from a 6-1 hammering with a clean sheet, then broke through against Kashiwa. Classic J1 chaos. The home crowd could be the difference here.
Key storylines:
- **V-Varen's attack** needs **T. Santana** and **M. Hasegawa** to click early — the hosts' form at Peace Stadium is solid, but they can't let Cerezo settle
- **Cerezo's defensive shape** with **R. Inoue** and **A. Ohata** has looked tight lately, but they're vulnerable on the road after conceding in their last away trip
- Both teams mirror formations (3-4-2-1), so midfield control via **O. Hijiri** (V-Varen) and **D. Cools** (Cerezo) will be crucial
Expected lineups:
- **V-Varen Nagasaki**: G. Masaaki, Y. Shunya, S. Ryosuke, Y. Egawa, M. Sekiguchi, O. Hijiri, Y. Hotaru, R. Yamada, S. Takashi, T. Santana, M. Hasegawa
- **Cerezo Osaka**: K. Nakamura, A. Ohata, R. Inoue, S. Hatanaka, D. Cools, T. Nakamura, S. Tanaka, J. Irvine, T. Andrade, S. Sakuragawa, L. Fernandes
Prediction:
**1-1 draw**. Cerezo have the edge in pedigree, but V-Varen's home fortress keeps it tight.
Where to watch
Betano
Match facts
Stadium
Peace Stadium
City
Nagasaki
Kickoff
19 Sep, 09:30 UTC
Competition
J1 League
Highlights & clips
V-Varen Nagasaki
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Cerezo Osaka
1
G. Masaaki
8.4
50
S. Ryosuke
6.2
31
K. Doi
6.7
↑ 83'
6
Y. Egawa
6.4
21
D. Pituca
6.9
↑ 58'
5
Y. Hotaru
6.5
88
A. Masuyama
6.6
↑ 58'
22
O. Hijiri
7.0
18
Y. Ryogo
6.7
↑ 82'
41
M. Hasegawa
7.3
34
T. Matsumoto
6.7
↑ 73'
23
K. Nakamura
6.3
27
D. Cools
6.2
15
J. Hernández
6.7
↑ 17'
4
R. Inoue
7.2
16
H. Okuda
6.8
10
S. Tanaka
7.1
36
J. Irvine
6.5
66
A. Ohata
7.0
11
T. Andrade
6.4
↑ 77'
7
S. Uejo
6.4
↑ 88'
9
S. Sakuragawa
6.5
Substitutes
13GH. Go
29DA. Ikki↓ 83'6.6
24MR. Yamada↓ 58'6.1
23MY. Shunya↓ 58'5.7
20MN. Keita
19MS. Takashi
10FM. Jesus↓ 82'7.9
9FT. Santana↓ 73'6.6
8FI. Yuto
Coach: Takuya Takagi
Substitutes
31GK. Abe
44DS. Hatanaka↓ 17'6.8
2DT. Nakamura
97DT. Takahashi
28MK. Okazawa↓ 88'7.6
77ML. Fernandes↓ 77'7.2
17MR. Sakata
19FP. Sabbag
Coach: Pablo Machin
Top stats
44%Possession56%
1.21Expected goals (xG)3.02
14Total shots17
1Shots on target6
2Big chances2
7Corners4
Shots
7Shots off target7
6Blocked shots4
10Shots inside box11
4Shots outside box6
1Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored1
1Big chances missed1
Attack
15Touches in box25
50Final third entries69
6Offsides1
9Free kicks9
2Fouled in final third3
Passing
375Passes478
306Accurate passes388
20/55 (36%)Long balls25/63 (40%)
8/17 (47%)Crosses5/21 (24%)
20Throw-ins22
Duels
45Duels55
23/47 (49%)Ground duels24/47 (51%)
13/33 (39%)Aerial duels20/33 (61%)
5/14 (36%)Dribbles3/6 (50%)
4Dispossessed7
Defending
10Tackles13
60Tackles won92
11Interceptions9
21Clearances18
53Recoveries44
Discipline
10Fouls9
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
6Goal kicks5
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers
1X2Cerezo Osaka to win 45% · 2.38 @ William Hill
Who winsCerezo Osaka to win (DNB) 53% · 1.60 @ Betano
BTTSBoth teams to score 57% · 3.00 @ Bet365
CornersOver 8.5 corners 61% · 1.50 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 54% · 4.00 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 77% · 1.95 @ 1xBet
1X2Draw 27% · 2.56 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 62% · 1.58 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 51% · 1.92 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 64% · 1.42 @ Pinnacle
1X2Nagasaki to win 28% · 3.60 @ William Hill
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.36
V-Varen Nagasaki
3.55
Draw
2.05
Cerezo Osaka
Double Chanceconsensus
1.75
V-Varen Nagasaki or Draw
1.29
V-Varen Nagasaki or Cerezo Osaka
1.29
Draw or Cerezo Osaka
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.65
Yes
2.12
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
6.50
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
3.60
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
10.60
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.22
Over 1.50
4.00
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.77
Over 2.50
2.04
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.81
Over 3.50
1.40
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.58
Over 4.50
1.12
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.25
V-Varen Nagasaki
1.55
Cerezo Osaka
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.24
Over 7.50
3.05
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.48
Over 8.50
2.40
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.85
Over 9.50
1.91
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.25
Over 10.50
1.54
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.80
Over 11.50
1.28
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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